It's been a wild ride so far, folks.
We started out with 400 players at 80 tables.
Now we're down to our top 25 players at five tables.
With me in the booth is Linda Fields,
the head of the Royal Flush Rumble Tournament.
Linda, who are you rooting for?
Oh, you're not going to get me there, Steve.
I am a neutral party.
But I must admit,
Camille Lawson's game is impressive.
Looks like she's chasing a flush.
The pot is up to 160k.
Three players have folded,
building the pot by $40k in the process,
except for Ethan Steele.
I mean, Ethan's a grinder.
He's done okay in the tournament scene.
But this year, he has really stepped up his game,
becoming a star overnight.
Now, Camille has a busted flush.
Her high card is a ten.
Her only hope is to bluff the hell out of Ethan.
Camille bets 75k.
She's trying to trick Ethan into believing
she's got trip aces.
Now, Ethan has a busted inside straight.
His high card is a jack. He should fold.
I call.
Oh, my God!
Ethan Steele just called,
forcing Camille to show her busted hand.
Ethan takes the win.
Another masterful move by Ethan Steele.
This guy is crushing it! Incredible.
How did you know?
I didn't.
I just got lucky, I guess.
I'm a poker player.
I don't believe in luck.
Ooh. This is nice.
Kylie, we have 50 bags to unbox.
It's going to take all day if you keep that up.
You don't pay me enough.
So I'll take my bonuses where I can.
Ooh!
What is this for again?
We want to measure how faux designer bags
affect a person's personal ethics.
Ethics, schmethics. I like this bag.
I got to take this.
Camille, it's been ages.
I'm surprised you answered.
I thought I'd be in your burn book by now.
Oh, I always have time for my favorite student.
You still playing poker?
You still think that's irrational?
Irrational? No.
Still, it can't be easy in a competitive,
male-dominated field.
Stereotype tax has its perks.
When they underestimate me, I play to that advantage.
Oh, it's nice to know you learned something from me.
I learned a lot from you, Alec.
Actually, that's why I called.
I'm playing in this huge tournament,
and I think one of the players is cheating.
You think or you know?
I saw telltale microexpressions.
He changed his demeanor mid-hand,
but he made eye contact.
I could really use your help to figure this out.
- How's a trip to Vegas sound? - Intriguing.
But aren't there whole security squads there
devoted to this type of thing?
Yes, but they can't see the things that you can see.
Gambling fraud isn't my typical wheelhouse.
I know. But this is...
this isn't just about a game, Alec.
There's a lot at stake here.
Please, I wouldn't ask for your help if I didn't really need it.
Camille, how much trouble are you in?
Enough to call you.
Synced & corrected by -robtor- www.addic7ed.com
I hope you're on your way to sell whatever stocks you've got.
I don't need to sell.
I've got this tournament in the bag.
It doesn't look that way to me.
You'll get your money.
That I will.
So happy you could make the time.
- I love Camille. - Oh, you mean you love Vegas.
Same, same.
Do you think we have time for the spa,
a little pool and sun, and then a table?
Or maybe I'll hit that spot where
I can swim and gamble at the same time?
I'll admit there's no better place to study irrational behavior.
I know you're not talking about me.
But I'm assuming that's why you brought your team.
This is so freaking cool.
I've never been to Vegas before.
Remind me to thank this Camille person.
What's her deal anyway?
She must have been important to the professor.
She was his head research assistant.
She's super smart, super detail-oriented,
super ambitious.
Oh, I get it. She was Phoebe before Phoebe.
Wait, does that mean you were me?
- No. - Oh.
Anyway, she abandoned the program
and moved to Vegas about a year and a half ago.
If you had the chance to work with Professor Mercer
in the most prestigious behavioral science program in the country,
why give it up?
That just doesn't make sense.
Because it's Vegas, baby.
Anything can happen.
Hi.
Oh, it's so good to see you.
You look great.
And your hair... your hair is...
Mm-hmm, long.
Yeah, it does that with time.
Well, I'm digging it.
And Professor.
Oh!
Tell me why I'm here.
Ethan Steele.
He's your basic mid-level player.
He's never made it to the final table of any tournament.
And now he's winning round after round
with super-marginal hands.
And as an expert in game theory optimal,
I can safely say what he is doing is crazy.
I saw the stats on his last game.
bold move calling with a jack.
But that doesn't mean he's cheating.
Which is why I need your help.
Maybe it's just good luck.
I don't believe in luck,
but I do believe in statistical clusters
that influence confidence.
The more confident we are, the more we win,
so we interpret it as luck.
The confidence-luck cycle.
But that would change the plan of his losses, too.
Right?
That's why I keep coming back to the idea that he is cheating,
which honestly hurts because we've been friends for a while now.
Guess you never know some friends.
Vegas is full of unscrupulous characters.
People's moral compass can shift
to match their surroundings.
That's one of the risks you took coming here.
Moving here was one of the least risky things
I could have done.
Going into debt as a grad student with no guarantee
of a job is a bad play.
No offense, Phoebe.
True, there are no guarantees in life.
But I tried to set you up for success.
I thought you were happy.
And you had a future in academia.
In poker, once I see my cards, I know my odds.
Then I can read the other players, and I can make my next move.
That puts me in control.
Sorry, I have to take this.
Yeah.
That doesn't look like someone who's in control.
Camille is definitely hiding something.
That's what I'm here to find out.
But first, I'm going to find Ethan.
You ready to go?
Marisa?
Sorry, I didn't hear you. What's up?
The rep for the Martinez case is waiting.
We have that lunch scheduled. Remember?
Uh, can we push it?
For a third time?
Is this about Alec's case?
You know the dry cleaner's van that Alec remembered?
I just spoke to the owner's daughter.
It turns out it was an SUV.
But that van is driving around with their logo.
Probably a cover. Happens all the time in narco.
- So I'm going to reach out... - That's great.
But the church bombing is a cold case, as in backburner.
13 people dying never gets cold.
I'm just worried you're not seeing the bigger picture.
I should get back to work.
I'll take the lunch. I'll update you later.
Look at him.
Does he look like the best poker player?
Or even the best poker cheater?
It could all be part of his shtick.
You want me to make the introduction?
Ah, I better go alone so he doesn't see anything coming.
Well, call away if you need me.
Sorry to interrupt, but are you Ethan Steele
from the Royal Flush Rumble Tournament?
Guilty as charged. And you're?
Alec. Wow, I can't believe it.
Yeah.
I was literally just talking to my coworker about you.
You're really crushing it out there.
Oh.
I actually work for Hildenhouse Publishing,
and we think our audience would love to hear your story.
You ever thought about a book deal?
I mean, that would be amazing.
Fantastic.
First, you got to tell me your secret
for leveling up overnight like that.
I promise I won't tell a soul.
That is, not until you tell the world in your book.
You wouldn't believe me if I told you.
Oh, I bet I would.
All right. Well...
ever since I found this,
it's like my game has completely turned around.
It's like I know what to do and when.
Mm?
You're right. I don't believe you.
- Snake eyes! - Place your bets.
Hmm.
_
O-M-G.
Who is Rose?
A woman from a case I was just on.
Well, are you gon' text her back?
I'm not sure I'm ready for all that.
Is this about Marisa?
'Cause you know she's dating that hottie
from the agency, right?
- It's not about her. - Then what is it?
Is she not pretty?
Is she not smart?
Or no...
is she smarter than you?
Now, that would be fun to watch.
Rose is great. There's absolutely nothing wrong with her.
It's just that I haven't been on the market
in a long, long time.
Now, is that why you texted me?
No.
I just sat down with Ethan.
And he believes the secret to his success
is his lucky charm.
I need your help to see if that's true.
Hey, would you mind taking a few photos of me?
I can't seem to get the right angle.
Seems impossible.
But yeah, of course. I got you.
One, two, three.
Yes.
See? Impossible.
Let me get one more with you here.
One, two...
Would you say that,
now knowing the tricks and gimmicks,
are you less likely to continue gambling?
Guess that's a no.
Aren't you full yet?
I've had enough food for three days.
It's called release from adaptation.
If I stick to smaller meals, my enjoyment lasts longer.
It's in the professor's second book.
I think it's time to move on to phase two of the study.
Professor gave us money to find irrationality,
not loiter at Bertie's all-you-can-eat buffet.
I thought the goal was to confer with the gamblers,
not join them.
I want them to talk.
I can't hover over them like a psycho with a clipboard.
I've got to blend in.
Holy crap, I won.
This is crazy.
Can you believe that?
I guess I'm going to have to start calling you lady luck.
What's up?
We'll find out.
- Is that... - Ethan's crusty mermaid?
Yes. Yes, it is.
How did you get that?
- Misdirected attention. - Mm.
Also known as Kylie's got skills.
Similar to the placebo effect,
people attach their luck to an object
that, of course, does nothing.
But their belief in it gives them excess confidence.
So if Ethan believes this mermaid is driving his success,
then playing without it should throw him off his game.
That's the goal.
Based on my conversation with Ethan,
I have a feeling he's lying
about how much his lucky charm improved his game.
We'll soon find out, won't we?
- Yes. - Nice!
All right.
Ethan admitted to me that it's not
just a sudden surge of skills.
And based on your game with him,
we know that it's not the confidence-luck cycle
driving his success.
Which means he has to be cheating.
Agreed. Even so, it's going to take time to figure it out.
I only have a few hours of chips left
before he knocks me out.
Then maybe we walk away, Camille.
It's just one tournament.
- It's more than that. - Finally. I've been waiting.
Tell me.
I, um...
there's just a lot on the line.
I know in a fair game, I could win.
But if you don't?
It's complicated.
You must be the complicated part.
Who's this guy?
Just leave him alone. He's not part of this.
Once you made our acquaintance,
you're part of this.
Don't suppose you've got $2 million in your pocket, do you?
You're loan sharks.
Mm, moneylenders. Got a friendlier ring to it.
So you got the cash?
If not, we're going to need some collateral ASAP.
That's what happens when you don't perform like you promised.
Uh, sorry.
I haven't properly introduced myself.
My name is Alec Mercer.
I'm a professor of behavioral science at Wylton University.
I can't get you your money,
but I can offer you some free advice.
I work with businesses all the time.
And from what I can see,
you're running yours inefficiently.
Are you trying to get a bullet in the head?
No.
I'm just here to help so that we all end up on top.
That said, you should know why Camille called me.
I promise it's of interest to you.
Enlighten me.
There's a cheater at the tournament.
We're in the process of flushing him out.
That's why I've been losing.
We're still going to need some collateral.
You think you're incentivizing Camille
to perform better, but you're just stressing her out,
which makes her perform worse.
Well...
here's what we're going to do.
No collateral for now.
But the interest goes up.
You've got 36 hours to get me my money plus another 5%.
End of negotiation.
You were amazing.
The switch tracking you pulled on them.
And then when we tag-teamed Dominic.
Changing the pattern of conversation really threw him off.
Camille.
I'm so embarrassed.
I don't... I don't even know where to start.
How about the beginning?
When I first got to Vegas, it felt like I couldn't lose.
I was making so much money so quickly.
And it felt like it would just always be like that.
And before I knew it, I was spending money left and right.
I... I bought my mom a house.
And she sacrificed so much for me,
and I could finally give her what she deserved.
I get it. You fell victim to outcome bias.
When things are good...
It's easy to assume they'll always be like that,
which is easy to see in hindsight,
especially when it's not you.
But everything was going fine
until I played Ethan in a cash game two weeks ago.
And I had played him before, but...
something about his game that night was different.
How so?
He had an edge.
Like he already knew what I was holding.
And then I couldn't believe that he was beating me,
so that put me on tilt.
Every decision I made got worse and worse
until I spent every penny that I had.
More than what I had.
Then that led you to the loan sharks.
It is amazing how they'll show up when you need them.
But they said they could bail me out
and cover my debts and the buy-in for this tournament.
But you knew what they were.
Yes, I knew who they were.
But I thought if I won, then it would cover everything,
and I would be off the hook.
And if you lose?
Then I will be in deep debt.
And my mom will lose her house.
You must be so disappointed in me.
I'm so sorry that I dragged you into this.
I-I just didn't know who else to call.
I...
I came here to help you.
Not to judge you, Camille.
You asked me to figure it out.
So...
get some rest.
I need you to focus for that game tomorrow.
I got a plan.
I know that you designed the logo for Jojo's Dry Cleaners.
So who else did you sell it to?
Once it leaves the shop, it ain't got nothing to do with me.
Plus, it was, like, a million years ago.
How am I supposed to remember?
2023...
an extermination van had a car full of methamphetamines.
2017, a cable truck had a trunk full of fentanyl.
2013, a grocery van had a dashboard full of PCP.
And your point?
All of these vehicles had convincing car wraps.
Now, I'm sure if I dig deep enough,
your name will come up.
So either you tell me something about this logo,
or I will make sure the charges stack up
and they don't stop coming.
I know you're in the middle of a custody battle.
If these charges stick,
you will never see your kids again.
Is that what you want?
Wait.
There was a scruffy white dude asking for a dry cleaning dupe.
- But I'm not good with faces. - You're a graphic artist.
Was there anything memorable?
He had crisp $100 bills, but his hands were disgusting.
His ink was janky. It didn't match up.
Tell me about the ink.
He had a hand tattoo. It was an eight.
It looked like he did it himself.
Studies show that when people cheat,
they alternate too rapidly between outcomes.
They win, they lose. They win, they lose.
I did a breakdown of Ethan Steele's wins and losses.
You see? His runs are too short.
He alternates too quickly.
On top of that,
he wins when it matters most and loses when it doesn't.
The only way he can do that is if he had access
to the other players' cards.
But how does he get access to their hole cards?
That's where you come in.
As the tournament organizer,
we need your help figuring out how he's able to pull this off.
This tournament means everything to me.
My late husband and I started it years ago.
Look, I can't disqualify someone from the tournament
based on statistics,
but what I can do is have my team look into it.
We look awesome.
Do we? I'm not sure if this is me.
- But... - That's the point.
- Okay. - What does Alec always say?
The first step to learning about the herd
is to join the herd.
Let's find our next subjects.
I'm tired of the slots.
I'm looking for a more responsive crowd.
Boom, craps.
It's a social game. It's insanely popular.
And it involves strategy and luck.
You have to be careful, though.
You can lose a lot of money in this game.
Use the house's money back at them.
That's what they say, right?
Besides, it's all found money anyway.
I already put aside Alec's money.
Come on, baby!
Oh, my God!
You are my good luck charm, baby.
- Uh, me? - Yes.
I want to say I'm surprised,
but I had a feeling they wouldn't go for it.
Six feet under it is.
We haven't exhausted all of our options yet.
What is it? What's wrong?
Ethan dropped out of the tournament.
And since I was the last to go heads up with him,
tournament rules say I advance to the final table.
Hey, I just heard the news.
Did y'all say something to Ethan?
- No. - Not a word.
Maybe he knew someone was on to him.
But this is good. Now it's all on you.
I'm ready. I can handle it.
Check.
I call.
Call.
Statistically speaking, Hank's nothing special.
And he never calls anything with less than a top 20% hand.
She's bluffing now. That's her strength.
Which means she'll bet big.
Raise.
How did you know?
I was her advisor for three years.
You get to learn someone's tells, their strengths.
Camille is fearless.
It's something I've always admired about her.
200.
I'll admit.
Got a busted hand.
But I still think it beats yours.
Oh, yeah?
I raise her 20k.
Is he trying to trap her?
He wants to make her show her hand.
He's calling her bluff.
Call.
Gentleman wins. Pair of sevens.
Ooh-wee.
Giddy up.
He just won with a super-marginal hand,
the same move that Ethan pulled.
And he did it without hesitation, like he had nothing to lose.
Maybe he's cheating, too.
But how?
Whoever's doing this has direct access
to the players' hole cards, which means
they're getting help from behind the scenes.
This isn't a one-off. They're dialed in.
Isn't the feed on a 30-minute delay?
And even if someone found a way around it,
why risk your job over this?
This isn't exactly LA.
Production jobs are sparse, not to mention high-effort,
low-reward, which makes this the perfect environment
for a scheme like this.
Kylie, you get close to Steven in makeup.
If you see or hear anything suspicious, let me know.
I'll follow the AD.
Go.
I wouldn't make a sound if I were you.
Surprise.
You're the collateral.
You know, kidnapping me
isn't going to get you your money any faster.
You don't seem to understand how serious I am.
But I'm sure two busted legs will make things very clear.
I get it. Trust me.
I really get it.
But it seems like breaking legs
is a non-profitable part of your business.
It's always in service of chasing a loss.
How much money do you even recover like that?
You're not going to professor your way out of this one.
Honestly, do you even like breaking people's legs?
It seems like a bad business move to me.
Helping me find Ethan?
Now, that's a smart move.
Why would we do that?
Because Ethan is the quickest way to the truth.
He can tell us how the game is rigged.
And once we know that, we all walk away richer.
You get your money, I get my legs.
What do you say?
- I was an idiot earlier. - Now is not a good time.
I know, I know, but this will only take a second.
I'm sorry about earlier.
I'm not going to lie. When it comes to Alec,
it's still hard for me to know where I stand.
You're the one I want to be with, Jace.
Know that.
And I'm sorry I was so quick to dismiss you.
I have been putting this case first,
but it is for good reason.
We are so close to figuring this out.
I can't stop now.
I understand.
And I want to help.
So what have you got so far?
Sylvio told me that
the guy had an eight tattooed to his knuckle,
so I figured maybe it was gang-related, maybe an 88.
I pulled every picture of white prison gang members in the area.
So far, I got nothing.
Well, maybe we're looking at this all wrong.
I booked someone from the New Apostles a few years ago.
They're a fundamentalist movement.
What if it's not an eight but an infinity sign,
which is their emblem?
I think you're onto something.
So we know the New Apostles originated in Wilmington,
but these are the members who headed up the local chapter
during the time of the church bombing.
So...
These two were locked up six months before.
They're doing time in Wise County.
This guy's been dead for over ten years.
What about this guy?
Peter Shelby.
Last known address was with his mom
about 15 miles away from where the bombing happened.
Hmm.
New shooter.
You know, Vegas can be really overwhelming at first.
You want to take a break and get some food with me?
I'm fine.
You are on tilt, girl.
I just... I don't want you to make the same mistakes that I did.
That seems unlikely.
Okay.
Hey, what is with the passive- aggressive cold shoulder?
I thought that we were friends, Camille.
Yeah, we were. We... we are.
I'm sorry I left the way that I did,
but I had a lot to process.
I'm sure you had other friends.
I didn't, actually.
I'm sorry.
I have to go find Rizwan.
So the good news is we found your guy.
And the bad news?
Okay.
We found him staying in the same hotel you were.
But when we went to introduce ourselves, he ran.
Up a billboard?
Well, we tried to talk him down,
but he won't listen.
Then I remembered this is your mess.
So you can clean it up.
We'll be right here waiting.
Could you give us a little space?
It might spook him less.
Nice.
Ethan, I'm just here to talk.
I'm guessing you're not a real book agent?
You're not a real poker player.
Guys like that don't come to talk.
I understand you're scared.
The thing is, no one's after you.
- We actually need your help. - For what?
Come down, and I'll explain.
Okay.
Maybe I'll come back in an hour.
Or two.
Let's say after dinner?
I'll wait as long as you like.
I got time. So do they.
A few weeks ago, I got a text from this anonymous number
saying that there was a way for me to win.
Guaranteed.
I didn't know if it was legit
or if it was even worth me inquiring more.
But you did.
- I'm a good player. - You're not a great one.
I would never make it to that final table
if I didn't have an edge.
So what about the people who did?
The way I see it, Lady Luck owes me.
Okay?
I mean, I've dumped so much money into this game
for so many years.
That's the problem with sunk cost fallacy.
People are reluctant to abandon a course of action
based on what they've already invested in it,
so they make decisions for the future based on the past.
Whatever you want to call it, I wrote back. And...
Before I knew it, a deal was struck.
It was an 80/20 split.
They got the better deal, but...
if I won the tournament,
I'd still walk away with $2 million.
So how did they signal you?
I'd have to show you.
After seeing the live feed with the hole card,
someone would signal Ethan
through this mechanism in his shoe to tell him what to do.
One buzz to play, two to fold.
It's almost offensive how basic the mechanics are.
Yet they managed to rig the entire game.
And continue to.
Do we think Hank is using the same equipment?
Absolutely.
I'm going head-to-head with Hank in the next game.
Here, let me use this. Then I'll at least know the same information.
- Fair is fair. - No, cheating is cheating.
It doesn't matter how many people are doing it.
Do you remember our studies on cheating?
If someone whom you identify with is cheating,
you're more likely to cheat, too.
But it doesn't make it right.
I don't want to cheat,
but the entire game is rigged, right?
This is the only way to level the playing field.
What if there was another option?
Have you ever heard of signal-to-noise ratio?
This is a multi-pronged approach.
We're not just trying to knock the cheater out.
We're trying to figure out who's on the other side
of this cheating scam.
Everyone know what they need to do?
Yep.
Based on his history,
Hank's going to undermine your skills because you're a woman.
But like you said,
stereotype tax has its benefits.
I can slow things down, give Kylie more time.
Kylie, it's vital you wait for both
the PA and the camera system to clear out before you move.
I did a little recon on the PA.
And based on his top-notch crafty skills,
the key to our success is in the bathroom break.
Once you gain access to the equipment,
you'll need to tap into the right frequency, for this to work.
Have some faith.
You ain't the only genius in the family.
Rizwan, Phoebe, remember that these drinks
are complements of the hotel.
People in Vegas are used to free drinks.
They won't bat an eye.
No one can resist a free iced latte.
Studies on the surprise reflex theory
have shown that when babies feel surprised
while breastfeeding, they tend to drink more aggressively.
Does it work on adults, too?
People of all ages drink faster when they're surprised.
By watching the way they drink,
we'll be able to see who's the most
caught off guard when Hank doesn't perform as expected.
I call.
You okay?
Of course, little lady.
Great.
Me, too.
Let's do this.
With Hank, we don't have to stop him from getting cues,
but rather flood him with so many,
he doesn't know what to believe.
That's the beauty of signal-to-noise ratio.
I can't believe it.
She's really going to town on that thing.
She's guilty as they come.
Identifying her as the ultimate cheater
and the person who rigged this whole tournament.
Go, girl!
I am beyond thrilled to name Camille Lawson
the winner of the Royal Flush Rumble Tournament.
There are some people here who would like to talk to you.
Meet the FBI Vegas Field Office.
Please follow us, ma'am.
I understand why you left now.
This place has its draw.
Phoebe, I never should have left the way that I did.
I should have told you about it or talked to you.
But I... I don't know.
I just didn't think that you would understand.
You're so responsible and together.
That's not true.
You saw me out there.
I literally lost all the money
the professor gave me in one night.
I fell for all the traps.
Yeah.
The traps are fun.
I think one of the reasons...
I had a hard time making friends was
that I held them to an impossible standard,
didn't really give them a chance.
Well, I bet you think I'm a real idiot, for getting into this mess.
You took a risk. And you learned about yourself.
I've only been here two days,
and I've already learned too much about myself.
But that's the ultimate experiment, right?
Are you ready, Phoebe?
I have to ask.
Is it my fault that you left the department?
I never gave you...
The attention you needed?
I put too much responsibility on you?
No.
No, you didn't.
It gave me the time and space
to discover that academia wasn't really right for me.
But poker is?
I don't know.
I thought I would find more certainty here.
But the truth is, nothing is certain.
So I'm going to take some time to think...
analyze the data of recent events
so that I can make the best decision going forward.
Whatever you do,
I think you'll make the right choice for yourself.
They say that the best gifts
are ones that hold a shared memory.
His name is Peter Shelby.
After the church bombing, he disappeared for two years.
They arrested him in Durham under an assumed name.
Texting you his picture now.
How did you find him?
He was working with the local chapter of the New Apostles.
They're a fundamentalist group.
Narco booked a few of their guys recently.
And Sylvio, the guy who printed the Jojo decal,
confirmed it was him.
We got him, Alec.
We're finally going to get some answers.
I'll meet you there.
- I'll give you two a minute. - Okay.
What happened? What's going on?
We got here a few hours too late.
There was a note.
Was it suicide?
I'm so sorry, Alec.
We have a team in there searching the entire place
for additional information.
We're going to figure this out.
He was our best chance at finding out the truth.
Now he's gone?