1 00:00:41,190 --> 00:00:44,310 - [Narrator] We view growth as something positive. 2 00:00:44,310 --> 00:00:47,813 It's great watching our kids grow up or seeing a tree grow. 3 00:00:49,440 --> 00:00:53,103 Yet we are always aware that all growth must come to an end. 4 00:00:54,010 --> 00:00:55,400 There's a limit. 5 00:00:55,400 --> 00:00:58,083 Nature knows no such thing as infinite growth. 6 00:00:58,970 --> 00:01:02,730 This rule seems to apply to every kind of growth but one. 7 00:01:02,730 --> 00:01:04,580 Economic growth is somehow 8 00:01:04,580 --> 00:01:07,450 supposed to continue indefinitely. 9 00:01:07,450 --> 00:01:11,299 - We believed then and now there are no limits 10 00:01:11,299 --> 00:01:14,640 to growth and human progress when men 11 00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:18,010 and women are free to follow their dreams. 12 00:01:18,010 --> 00:01:19,663 And we were right. 13 00:01:21,110 --> 00:01:25,040 - [Narrator] If that growth fails to materialize, we panic. 14 00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:25,873 But why? 15 00:01:27,810 --> 00:01:31,330 As one person recognized 150 years ago, growth is 16 00:01:31,330 --> 00:01:34,283 the fundamental principle of our economic system. 17 00:01:35,180 --> 00:01:38,810 Capitalism only works when the economy grows. 18 00:01:38,810 --> 00:01:42,090 But Karl Marx recognized something else as well. 19 00:01:42,090 --> 00:01:44,240 It is this growth that will eventually 20 00:01:44,240 --> 00:01:45,823 destroy the system itself. 21 00:01:46,750 --> 00:01:50,580 And today, have we reached that point? 22 00:01:50,580 --> 00:01:53,180 Is the system about to collapse? 23 00:01:53,180 --> 00:01:55,683 Or might infinite growth actually be possible? 24 00:01:59,890 --> 00:02:03,690 - The governments don't want us to even question the G word, 25 00:02:03,690 --> 00:02:07,073 they don't even want to put a discussion around growth. 26 00:02:08,040 --> 00:02:09,890 If you were looking at this from the outside, 27 00:02:09,890 --> 00:02:12,320 an alien arriving from outer space and you're looking 28 00:02:12,320 --> 00:02:16,979 at this society, you would really wonder what was going on. 29 00:02:16,979 --> 00:02:18,241 What are they doing? 30 00:02:18,241 --> 00:02:21,855 What is this growth that has to appear in political 31 00:02:21,855 --> 00:02:25,790 sentence and is the basis of every economics textbook? 32 00:02:25,790 --> 00:02:26,670 What is it all about? 33 00:02:26,670 --> 00:02:28,810 Is it a religion that they have? 34 00:02:28,810 --> 00:02:30,370 Is it a god that they're chasing? 35 00:02:30,370 --> 00:02:32,343 Is it a virus that's taken over them? 36 00:02:34,793 --> 00:02:38,108 And what is this visceral fear that emerges 37 00:02:38,108 --> 00:02:41,510 as soon as growth starts to go away? 38 00:02:46,333 --> 00:02:49,083 (up tempo music) 39 00:05:47,720 --> 00:05:49,429 - [Narrator] The Federation of German Industries 40 00:05:49,429 --> 00:05:52,033 is Germany's most influential lobby. 41 00:05:52,950 --> 00:05:56,193 No German government can afford to ignore its voice. 42 00:07:02,150 --> 00:07:03,550 - [Narrator] Where does this unshakable 43 00:07:03,550 --> 00:07:05,453 belief in economic growth come from? 44 00:07:06,340 --> 00:07:08,900 Has it always been there? 45 00:07:08,900 --> 00:07:11,376 Is it really part of human nature? 46 00:07:11,376 --> 00:07:13,959 (gentle music) 47 00:07:24,840 --> 00:07:26,880 - [Man] It was through audacious and imaginative 48 00:07:26,880 --> 00:07:28,964 use of mass production methods that US industry 49 00:07:28,964 --> 00:07:32,040 was able to perform its war time miracles. 50 00:07:32,040 --> 00:07:34,420 To build more planes than all the united nations 51 00:07:34,420 --> 00:07:37,000 put together, to turn out ships at the rate 52 00:07:37,000 --> 00:07:40,470 of 200 a month, ships which carried overseas the armed 53 00:07:40,470 --> 00:07:44,220 might of the United States to decide the outcome of the war. 54 00:07:44,220 --> 00:07:45,760 - [Narrator] The success story of economic 55 00:07:45,760 --> 00:07:48,033 growth began during World War II. 56 00:07:48,870 --> 00:07:51,010 Mass production of tanks and aircraft led 57 00:07:51,010 --> 00:07:54,010 the American economy out of crisis. 58 00:07:54,010 --> 00:07:57,363 The output of military equipment was now calculated by 59 00:07:57,363 --> 00:08:02,363 a new statistical measure, gross domestic product, or GDP. 60 00:08:02,560 --> 00:08:07,340 If production, i.e. GDP, grew, then so did prosperity. 61 00:08:07,340 --> 00:08:09,852 Americans believed so firmly in this new formula 62 00:08:09,852 --> 00:08:12,500 that they compelled their allies to bring their 63 00:08:12,500 --> 00:08:14,860 economic policies in line with it. 64 00:08:14,860 --> 00:08:16,876 From then on, it wasn't people's incomes 65 00:08:16,876 --> 00:08:19,590 that counted, it was only growth. 66 00:08:19,590 --> 00:08:22,340 (dramatic music) 67 00:08:28,110 --> 00:08:30,060 - And it turned out to be such a useful measure 68 00:08:30,060 --> 00:08:32,230 actually for the war effort and for understanding 69 00:08:32,230 --> 00:08:35,551 the war effort, that afterwards there was a lot of effort 70 00:08:35,551 --> 00:08:38,851 put into building this system of national accounts, having 71 00:08:38,851 --> 00:08:41,800 this number, the GDP, correctly measured through 72 00:08:41,800 --> 00:08:46,800 the economy, and it became almost incrementally, it became 73 00:08:48,210 --> 00:08:53,210 the single most important policy number across the world. 74 00:08:55,440 --> 00:08:58,060 It kind of symbolizes progress to us. 75 00:08:58,060 --> 00:09:00,359 It sort of says, wow, things are getting 76 00:09:00,359 --> 00:09:02,280 bigger so they must be getting better. 77 00:09:02,280 --> 00:09:04,423 That was the birth of the GDP. 78 00:09:05,410 --> 00:09:07,470 - [Narrator] In the three decades after the war, 79 00:09:07,470 --> 00:09:11,230 the Western economies grew up to eight percent annually. 80 00:09:11,230 --> 00:09:14,800 In the US, they called it the golden age of capitalism. 81 00:09:14,800 --> 00:09:17,970 In France, they were the 30 glorious years. 82 00:09:17,970 --> 00:09:21,000 In Germany, it was the economic miracle. 83 00:09:21,000 --> 00:09:23,220 An entire generation enjoyed material 84 00:09:23,220 --> 00:09:26,090 prosperity and full employment and this 85 00:09:26,090 --> 00:09:29,290 became engraved in the collective consciousness. 86 00:09:29,290 --> 00:09:31,310 Even though these high growth rates were only 87 00:09:31,310 --> 00:09:33,763 made possible by massive war time destruction, 88 00:09:33,763 --> 00:09:36,931 the belief in growth was now unstoppable. 89 00:09:36,931 --> 00:09:41,231 GDP became the most important benchmark in history. 90 00:09:41,231 --> 00:09:43,981 (up tempo music) 91 00:09:56,690 --> 00:09:59,450 - And the economy and the grace of the economy was doing 92 00:09:59,450 --> 00:10:02,490 a good job for us when we were young, if you like, 93 00:10:02,490 --> 00:10:05,205 when as an economy, as a society, we were young. 94 00:10:05,205 --> 00:10:07,880 And one of the really important things to say 95 00:10:07,880 --> 00:10:10,080 is that there are some societies where that is still 96 00:10:10,080 --> 00:10:12,130 necessary, where you still need that growth, where you 97 00:10:12,130 --> 00:10:14,620 still need food, clothing, and shelter, where there are 98 00:10:14,620 --> 00:10:18,460 very, very poor undernourished people living on less than 99 00:10:18,460 --> 00:10:21,763 the price of a skinny latte from the cafe downstairs. 100 00:10:22,881 --> 00:10:26,383 That's a situation where growth makes some sense. 101 00:10:27,510 --> 00:10:31,030 But the idea that as human beings all we want ever is more 102 00:10:31,030 --> 00:10:34,870 and more stuff doesn't really stack up so after a certain 103 00:10:34,870 --> 00:10:36,940 point you have to ask yourself, well, how much is enough? 104 00:10:36,940 --> 00:10:39,440 How much more do I need to grow the economy 105 00:10:39,440 --> 00:10:42,073 to satisfy human appetites? 106 00:12:16,724 --> 00:12:20,320 - The GDP counts everything that's produced really. 107 00:12:20,320 --> 00:12:22,170 Yeah, sure, it counts some of the good things 108 00:12:22,170 --> 00:12:25,496 that we need but it also counts ambulances 109 00:12:25,496 --> 00:12:30,250 to clear up carnage on the streets or the rescue 110 00:12:30,250 --> 00:12:34,060 efforts when an oil tanker pollutes the ocean. 111 00:12:34,060 --> 00:12:35,952 To some extent all of this is a measure of 112 00:12:35,952 --> 00:12:39,743 the busy-ness of economic activity. 113 00:12:41,892 --> 00:12:43,750 But many of these things, even though they're getting 114 00:12:43,750 --> 00:12:46,450 bigger, are not really economic growth, they're more 115 00:12:46,450 --> 00:12:50,480 uneconomic growth because they're not delivering welfare. 116 00:12:50,480 --> 00:12:53,140 Sometimes they're just clearing up after the mess we made. 117 00:12:53,140 --> 00:12:55,140 Sometimes they're really creating mess, 118 00:12:55,140 --> 00:12:58,833 really destructive production if you like of, 119 00:12:59,960 --> 00:13:02,460 you know, things that actually just destroy stuff. 120 00:13:08,350 --> 00:13:10,926 - [Narrator] The 1970s saw growth rates sink for 121 00:13:10,926 --> 00:13:15,680 the first time due to the oil crisis and other factors. 122 00:13:15,680 --> 00:13:19,320 The boom was over, the markets saturated. 123 00:13:19,320 --> 00:13:21,580 Western economies stagnated. 124 00:13:21,580 --> 00:13:24,560 Millions suddenly found themselves unemployed. 125 00:13:24,560 --> 00:13:26,283 It was uncharted territory. 126 00:13:27,670 --> 00:13:31,150 For the first time, the limits of growth became visible, 127 00:13:31,150 --> 00:13:34,673 economically, socially, and ecologically. 128 00:13:47,840 --> 00:13:50,390 - [Man] We do have some understanding about growth. 129 00:13:51,746 --> 00:13:54,170 - [Narrator] In 1972, a group of scholars, 130 00:13:54,170 --> 00:13:57,100 commissioned by the Club of Rome, presented a report 131 00:13:57,100 --> 00:14:00,230 in Washington entitled "The Limits to Growth." 132 00:14:00,230 --> 00:14:02,490 Using a computer simulation, researchers 133 00:14:02,490 --> 00:14:05,630 at MIT had calculated for the first time what 134 00:14:05,630 --> 00:14:09,100 continuous economic growth would do to the planet. 135 00:14:09,100 --> 00:14:12,120 Their findings set off alarm bells around the world. 136 00:14:12,120 --> 00:14:14,830 - When resource consumption is doubling every 20 years. 137 00:14:14,830 --> 00:14:16,180 - [Narrator] For the first time people were 138 00:14:16,180 --> 00:14:18,274 confronted with the fact that economic growth 139 00:14:18,274 --> 00:14:20,900 could also have negative consequences. 140 00:14:20,900 --> 00:14:24,670 And that the planet's natural limits would soon be reached. 141 00:14:24,670 --> 00:14:28,030 The success story of growth was in crisis. 142 00:14:28,030 --> 00:14:29,740 - Most important lesson is that we're near 143 00:14:29,740 --> 00:14:32,314 the end of our development of society. 144 00:14:32,314 --> 00:14:34,882 We've been going on for about 2,000 years and we've 145 00:14:34,882 --> 00:14:39,288 reached levels of prosperity which carry the seeds 146 00:14:39,288 --> 00:14:44,010 of disruption and necessitate a complete re-look at the 147 00:14:44,010 --> 00:14:46,710 whole world's social, political, and other situations. 148 00:14:47,770 --> 00:14:49,170 - [Narrator] The Club of Rome report sold 149 00:14:49,170 --> 00:14:52,363 30 million copies and became a global sensation. 150 00:14:53,550 --> 00:14:55,700 The realization that exponential growth was 151 00:14:55,700 --> 00:14:58,040 destroying the foundation of human life on this 152 00:14:58,040 --> 00:15:01,513 planet was entirely new and shocking to many people. 153 00:15:03,180 --> 00:15:06,303 And yet, soon, the scholars themselves came under attack. 154 00:15:07,140 --> 00:15:10,170 Their calculations were decried as irresponsible fear 155 00:15:10,170 --> 00:15:14,123 mongering because it's impossible to admit the unacceptable. 156 00:15:14,980 --> 00:15:17,973 The success story of growth must continue. 157 00:15:28,420 --> 00:15:31,060 Unfortunately many of the scholars predictions 158 00:15:31,060 --> 00:15:34,840 turned out to be right and in many cases reality 159 00:15:34,840 --> 00:15:36,790 even surpassed their bleak predictions. 160 00:16:21,103 --> 00:16:22,750 As the Club of Rome report was causing 161 00:16:22,750 --> 00:16:25,650 an international uproar, the Brazilian rainforest 162 00:16:25,650 --> 00:16:29,200 in the Amazon basin was still nearly untouched. 163 00:16:29,200 --> 00:16:32,023 The huge Brazilian state of Mato Grosso, largely populated 164 00:16:32,023 --> 00:16:36,600 by indigenous people, consisted of forest and savanna. 165 00:16:36,600 --> 00:16:39,570 Today, not much of that is left. 166 00:16:39,570 --> 00:16:42,680 Since the mid '80s, progress, aided by international 167 00:16:42,680 --> 00:16:46,320 investors, has been eating away at the rainforest. 168 00:16:46,320 --> 00:16:50,640 35 football fields of forest disappear every minute. 169 00:16:50,640 --> 00:16:53,610 It's been the same story over and over again. 170 00:16:53,610 --> 00:16:56,835 Lumberjacks move in first, then cattle breeders, 171 00:16:56,835 --> 00:16:59,517 and finally, the soybean barons. 172 00:20:20,890 --> 00:20:22,881 - [Narrator] The tropical climate delivers three to four 173 00:20:22,881 --> 00:20:26,840 harvests per year and with it massive profits. 174 00:20:26,840 --> 00:20:29,873 Soy and corn for export and animal feed. 175 00:20:36,877 --> 00:20:40,630 Highway 163 is the gateway to the Amazon basin. 176 00:20:40,630 --> 00:20:42,290 It brought lumberjacks, money, 177 00:20:42,290 --> 00:20:44,023 and destruction into the forest. 178 00:20:45,500 --> 00:20:47,900 Today countless trucks line the agribusiness 179 00:20:47,900 --> 00:20:50,690 highway transporting their valuable cargo 180 00:20:50,690 --> 00:20:52,233 to the international ports. 181 00:20:53,720 --> 00:20:56,430 They pass an endless sea of soybean fields, 182 00:20:56,430 --> 00:20:58,718 enormous silos, and slaughterhouses to one of 183 00:20:58,718 --> 00:21:01,780 the largest boom regions in the world. 184 00:21:01,780 --> 00:21:04,250 Growth rates of up to 20%. 185 00:21:04,250 --> 00:21:05,173 Big business. 186 00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:19,640 - In the '70s, this region, it was just populized 187 00:21:19,700 --> 00:21:23,703 by Indians, it was just amazing forests. 188 00:21:25,370 --> 00:21:29,760 34 years just of colonization and it's the most 189 00:21:29,760 --> 00:21:34,143 important region in agribusiness of the country. 190 00:21:35,350 --> 00:21:40,350 It's the right place to make new investments, to make money. 191 00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:51,010 Here is the most important, biggest, 192 00:21:51,010 --> 00:21:53,253 food lots in the state of Mato Grosso. 193 00:21:54,130 --> 00:21:56,670 The cattle, a good part are exported 194 00:21:56,670 --> 00:21:59,180 to Russia, China, and other countries. 195 00:21:59,180 --> 00:22:00,170 Here we work. 196 00:22:00,170 --> 00:22:02,083 It's just classify the animals. 197 00:22:11,860 --> 00:22:14,180 - [Matheus Vieira] Cattle goes to the JBS, 198 00:22:14,180 --> 00:22:17,170 the most biggest meat industry in the world. 199 00:22:17,170 --> 00:22:19,990 He's from Brazil and they have another 200 00:22:19,990 --> 00:22:23,383 12 countries around the world. 201 00:22:28,806 --> 00:22:30,250 - [Interviewer] Do you see any limits? 202 00:22:30,250 --> 00:22:31,083 - No. 203 00:22:31,083 --> 00:22:36,080 Next 10 years with the technologies, what can I say? 204 00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:37,310 There is no limits. 205 00:22:37,310 --> 00:22:39,493 The limit's probably the sky. 206 00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:03,200 - [Narrator] In just a few years, 207 00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:05,320 Mato Grosso's untouched wilderness was 208 00:23:05,320 --> 00:23:08,223 transformed into the world's largest food factory. 209 00:25:55,723 --> 00:25:57,810 - [Narrator] In response to the crisis of the '70s, 210 00:25:57,810 --> 00:26:00,660 economic policy underwent a change of course. 211 00:26:00,660 --> 00:26:04,180 New growth had to be followed no matter what the cost. 212 00:26:04,180 --> 00:26:06,010 Even if that meant unleashing the primary 213 00:26:06,010 --> 00:26:07,863 forces of finance capitalism. 214 00:26:11,300 --> 00:26:13,244 These had been contained after World War II 215 00:26:13,244 --> 00:26:15,730 because they were held responsible for 216 00:26:15,730 --> 00:26:18,093 the Great Depression and the war itself. 217 00:26:23,670 --> 00:26:26,320 Monetarism was the new magic word. 218 00:26:28,070 --> 00:26:31,060 - Monetarism was the idea that if you put more money into 219 00:26:31,060 --> 00:26:34,985 the economy, liquidity it was called, that additional money 220 00:26:34,985 --> 00:26:37,670 in the economy would help real investment that would 221 00:26:37,670 --> 00:26:40,860 help give us more production, it would allow us to consume 222 00:26:40,860 --> 00:26:43,840 more goods, and we would get growth back again. 223 00:26:43,840 --> 00:26:48,270 So, this little hiatus, if you like, in the '70s primarily 224 00:26:48,270 --> 00:26:52,325 caused by the oil crisis led to a transformation in the 225 00:26:52,325 --> 00:26:57,325 economics of our societies and in particular how we think 226 00:26:57,500 --> 00:27:00,250 about growth and how we think about stimulating growth. 227 00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:06,520 - [Narrator] Governments deregulated financial markets. 228 00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:09,590 Banks, insurance companies, and investment funds gained 229 00:27:09,590 --> 00:27:12,640 in influence and were now allowed to gamble with 230 00:27:12,640 --> 00:27:16,570 currencies, stocks, even with people's retirement funds. 231 00:27:16,570 --> 00:27:18,810 Capital was let loose and the financial 232 00:27:18,810 --> 00:27:21,331 sector was flooded with money. 233 00:27:21,331 --> 00:27:23,748 (jazz music) 234 00:27:32,197 --> 00:27:34,280 It was a pact with the devil and the beginning 235 00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:37,560 of a slow process of self disempowerment. 236 00:27:37,560 --> 00:27:40,300 In exchange for growth, governments relinquished 237 00:27:40,300 --> 00:27:42,820 their power to financial markets. 238 00:27:42,820 --> 00:27:46,780 But who do we mean by financial markets and capital? 239 00:27:46,780 --> 00:27:48,780 And what does it all have to do with us? 240 00:27:57,000 --> 00:27:59,640 The Allianz Group is Europe's biggest insurance 241 00:27:59,640 --> 00:28:02,110 conglomerate and one of the biggest players 242 00:28:02,110 --> 00:28:03,853 in the global financial markets. 243 00:28:08,580 --> 00:28:11,473 - And yes, China, contributed about one percent. 244 00:28:12,727 --> 00:28:14,230 And next you have India, 245 00:28:14,230 --> 00:28:17,329 which was less than 0.2% contribution. 246 00:28:17,329 --> 00:28:18,373 And that's not. 247 00:28:19,550 --> 00:28:21,470 - That's true but China still is a little 248 00:28:21,470 --> 00:28:25,293 bit struggling really to change their business 249 00:28:25,293 --> 00:28:30,293 model from investment and production oriented toward 250 00:28:31,776 --> 00:28:34,613 consumption and service oriented business model. 251 00:29:19,629 --> 00:29:24,629 If we summarize this, moderate positive growth in China, 252 00:29:24,800 --> 00:29:29,800 therefore also in Asia overall, some kind of modeled growth 253 00:29:30,177 --> 00:29:33,603 and in the developed markets in Europe and the US. 254 00:29:36,029 --> 00:29:38,990 There are also no new growth drivers to be seen. 255 00:30:31,996 --> 00:30:35,024 So, the idea is collaboration with the World Bank 256 00:30:35,024 --> 00:30:39,620 to do projects together, directly in emerging markets 257 00:30:39,620 --> 00:30:44,400 based on hard currency, US dollar or Euro and so 258 00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:48,483 to avoid the local currency volatility. 259 00:31:24,790 --> 00:31:28,020 If we invest in emerging markets, get a nice collateral, 260 00:31:28,020 --> 00:31:32,190 a nice on it, so we have a security we can sell 261 00:31:32,190 --> 00:31:37,190 if necessary like in the finance area, 262 00:31:38,240 --> 00:31:41,803 that's let's say a win win situation for us. 263 00:31:44,275 --> 00:31:49,275 - I take that as a yes. 264 00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:10,810 - [Narrator] The money of millions of insured 265 00:32:10,810 --> 00:32:14,120 individuals is sent on its way to multiply. 266 00:32:14,120 --> 00:32:16,600 When Andreas Gruber's team has a rough idea 267 00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:18,700 to which countries and sectors the billions 268 00:32:18,700 --> 00:32:21,885 should flow, they hire an asset manager. 269 00:32:21,885 --> 00:32:25,463 He determines what stocks or bonds to invest in. 270 00:32:36,170 --> 00:32:40,965 - Most of our clients are institutions, companies, pension 271 00:32:40,965 --> 00:32:45,965 funds, employers federations, also unions, churches, 272 00:32:47,660 --> 00:32:51,233 central banks, and sovereign wealth management companies. 273 00:32:52,280 --> 00:32:54,480 What they want is they want their 274 00:32:54,480 --> 00:32:57,143 money invested in the capital market. 275 00:33:00,900 --> 00:33:05,370 Our customers expect their capital to be returned. 276 00:33:05,370 --> 00:33:07,060 They want their money back and they 277 00:33:07,060 --> 00:33:09,500 want their return on their capital. 278 00:33:09,500 --> 00:33:13,977 And the more growth there is the higher their return. 279 00:33:47,910 --> 00:33:52,620 Worldwide Pimco manages 1.2 trillion Euros 280 00:33:52,620 --> 00:33:56,270 of assets and in Germany we're managing 480 billion 281 00:33:56,270 --> 00:33:58,570 Euros of assets we have under management here. 282 00:34:08,950 --> 00:34:11,750 So, the financial markets, they have a social role 283 00:34:11,750 --> 00:34:16,750 in distributing people's savings towards investment. 284 00:34:17,500 --> 00:34:20,840 And that investment is usually a form of debt. 285 00:34:20,840 --> 00:34:24,050 So, when you take out a loan, for example, 286 00:34:24,050 --> 00:34:27,014 to buy a house, that loan could end up in a bond 287 00:34:27,014 --> 00:34:30,570 and we could end up buying that bond. 288 00:34:30,570 --> 00:34:33,680 So, growth is important so that individuals 289 00:34:33,680 --> 00:34:36,950 and companies who borrow money in the capital 290 00:34:36,950 --> 00:34:39,483 markets can actually pay those loans back. 291 00:34:45,700 --> 00:34:47,120 - No, that's pre-trade. 292 00:34:47,120 --> 00:34:48,820 - [Man] Yeah, but he wouldn't say. 293 00:34:55,790 --> 00:34:58,580 - So, there's always debt in the system. 294 00:34:58,580 --> 00:35:00,775 And we can aggregate that up to the whole country level 295 00:35:00,775 --> 00:35:05,533 and without growth that debt cannot be repaid back. 296 00:35:06,820 --> 00:35:09,360 Imagine a world where there's zero growth. 297 00:35:09,360 --> 00:35:14,360 That's a world in which pretty much everything gets frozen. 298 00:35:15,290 --> 00:35:18,960 If you haven't got a job, in this new world, 299 00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:21,293 with no growth, bad luck. 300 00:35:23,060 --> 00:35:24,730 You're gonna have to wait for somebody 301 00:35:24,730 --> 00:35:26,793 to retire before maybe you get their job. 302 00:35:31,018 --> 00:35:35,023 A society without growth probably won't work at all. 303 00:35:36,160 --> 00:35:36,993 Not for long. 304 00:35:38,920 --> 00:35:41,273 It will degenerate into collapse. 305 00:35:46,140 --> 00:35:48,590 - [Narrator] Without growth, societies will descend into 306 00:35:48,590 --> 00:35:52,323 chaos according to the financial and political elite. 307 00:35:53,340 --> 00:35:55,510 But is that really the case? 308 00:35:55,510 --> 00:35:57,060 Isn't it rather their blind faith 309 00:35:57,060 --> 00:35:58,733 in growth that leads us to chaos? 310 00:36:41,260 --> 00:36:44,210 In the '80s, the world of finance operating from 311 00:36:44,210 --> 00:36:46,770 the city of London and Wall Street increased 312 00:36:46,770 --> 00:36:49,013 its influence on governments and societies 313 00:36:49,013 --> 00:36:51,683 and became the driving force of capitalism. 314 00:36:52,530 --> 00:36:55,410 Today, financial markets, not governments, 315 00:36:55,410 --> 00:36:58,413 determine the wellbeing of entire countries. 316 00:36:59,450 --> 00:37:01,070 How did it come to this? 317 00:37:01,070 --> 00:37:02,990 How could financial markets gain such 318 00:37:02,990 --> 00:37:04,683 influence over our own lives? 319 00:37:10,053 --> 00:37:13,386 (electric guitar music) 320 00:37:21,680 --> 00:37:24,040 One person who knows the financial world better 321 00:37:24,040 --> 00:37:27,150 than almost anyone is Stewart Cowley. 322 00:37:27,150 --> 00:37:29,670 For nearly 30 years, he was a successful fund 323 00:37:29,670 --> 00:37:32,433 manager on Wall Street and in the city of London. 324 00:37:34,600 --> 00:37:36,180 - No, I never planned to be a fund manager. 325 00:37:36,180 --> 00:37:39,840 I was a scientist and I was at Oxford and one night I was 326 00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:43,740 playing in a jazz quartet and the drummer was an economist. 327 00:37:43,740 --> 00:37:45,170 We were very drunk and I said, you know, 328 00:37:45,170 --> 00:37:46,723 what's this thing in the city? 329 00:37:47,860 --> 00:37:50,290 And he told us all about it and I woke up the next 330 00:37:50,290 --> 00:37:54,952 morning with a massive hangover but remembered what he 331 00:37:54,952 --> 00:37:59,650 said and I went to the careers department at Oxford 332 00:37:59,650 --> 00:38:01,396 University and got the forms and filled them in really 333 00:38:01,396 --> 00:38:04,890 badly and before I knew it I'd been offered a job 334 00:38:06,290 --> 00:38:08,471 and had been offered 20,000 pounds to go 335 00:38:08,471 --> 00:38:10,723 and start on Wall Street in 1987. 336 00:38:11,871 --> 00:38:12,850 And that was the Wild West. 337 00:38:12,850 --> 00:38:14,967 That was the beginning of it really. 338 00:38:18,332 --> 00:38:20,991 And we went into the new era of Reagan, Thatcher 339 00:38:20,991 --> 00:38:24,450 and liberal trade so what we're doing is we're 340 00:38:24,450 --> 00:38:27,410 taking the core set of the system, yes, and we 341 00:38:27,410 --> 00:38:30,360 went through this process of liberalization. 342 00:38:30,360 --> 00:38:33,130 So, the so-called big bang in the city was all about 343 00:38:33,130 --> 00:38:37,810 financial deregulation, let's go, let the market decide 344 00:38:37,810 --> 00:38:42,380 and let's hire people, and let's see what happens, yes. 345 00:38:42,380 --> 00:38:43,550 As opposed to this really kind 346 00:38:43,550 --> 00:38:45,430 of controlled atmosphere which we'd had before. 347 00:38:45,430 --> 00:38:50,430 And it was that that we walked into where money now talks, 348 00:38:50,580 --> 00:38:53,846 now money wins and you need people, smart people, 349 00:38:53,846 --> 00:38:57,446 to trade the markets and make finance the powerhouse 350 00:38:57,446 --> 00:39:00,870 behind capitalism which it's supposed to be because 351 00:39:00,870 --> 00:39:03,850 all capitalism functions on debt and functions 352 00:39:03,850 --> 00:39:06,710 on money and particularly debt. 353 00:39:06,710 --> 00:39:08,370 And that's what it did and that's when 354 00:39:08,370 --> 00:39:13,111 growth and inflation exploded in the 1980s. 355 00:39:13,111 --> 00:39:15,861 (up tempo music) 356 00:39:23,060 --> 00:39:25,878 - [Narrator] The plan seemed to work, stock markets boomed, 357 00:39:25,878 --> 00:39:28,442 growth no longer needed to be financed by increasing 358 00:39:28,442 --> 00:39:32,710 wages and tax revenue, now it was all about credit. 359 00:39:32,710 --> 00:39:35,118 Governments and individuals were to take out 360 00:39:35,118 --> 00:39:38,010 loans from banks and investors so that they could 361 00:39:38,010 --> 00:39:40,973 be good consumers and thus generate growth. 362 00:39:44,120 --> 00:39:47,563 - Credit cards come along, overdraft facilities, 363 00:39:47,563 --> 00:39:52,563 lending for houses becomes widely available 364 00:39:52,700 --> 00:39:55,563 and it's at that point that it explodes. 365 00:39:56,560 --> 00:39:58,850 That now it's not just the very wealthy who have 366 00:39:58,850 --> 00:40:01,950 access to all these things, consumerism, it's now 367 00:40:01,950 --> 00:40:04,820 people lower down the income scales as well. 368 00:40:04,820 --> 00:40:06,693 And if you look at money supply and the supply 369 00:40:06,693 --> 00:40:10,463 of credit in the early '80s, it just explodes. 370 00:40:16,742 --> 00:40:19,114 There's been access to consumerism and kind 371 00:40:19,114 --> 00:40:22,998 of promotion of consumerism plus debt which has 372 00:40:22,998 --> 00:40:26,713 created the growth and created where we are today. 373 00:40:32,206 --> 00:40:34,246 When was the last time you heard anybody say 374 00:40:34,246 --> 00:40:36,618 that I can't come out tonight 'cause we're 375 00:40:36,618 --> 00:40:38,913 saving up to buy a refrigerator? 376 00:40:40,544 --> 00:40:43,694 It just doesn't happen you know. 377 00:40:43,694 --> 00:40:45,093 Nobody waits anymore. 378 00:40:48,770 --> 00:40:50,270 - [Narrator] The cold logic of the market 379 00:40:50,270 --> 00:40:53,333 took over producing winners and losers. 380 00:41:06,140 --> 00:41:07,350 - [Interviewer] Used to be a poker player. 381 00:41:07,350 --> 00:41:10,440 Is this poker play with other means? 382 00:41:10,440 --> 00:41:13,230 - Well, yeah, I've played some poker in my lifetime, 383 00:41:13,230 --> 00:41:16,633 I suppose a lot of people in this business have. 384 00:41:20,790 --> 00:41:24,950 I think there's a common feeling that playing cards 385 00:41:24,950 --> 00:41:27,750 or playing blackjack or something like that is gambling 386 00:41:27,750 --> 00:41:31,780 but of course we know it's not really gambling it's 387 00:41:31,780 --> 00:41:34,246 taking into account the probability of certain 388 00:41:34,246 --> 00:41:39,246 events occurring and placing wages accordingly. 389 00:41:39,900 --> 00:41:42,253 We would call that the art of speculation. 390 00:41:51,167 --> 00:41:52,930 - [Narrator] One of the people who knew best how 391 00:41:52,930 --> 00:41:55,990 to profit from this new logic was Donald Trump. 392 00:41:55,990 --> 00:41:59,400 - I really think I have an instinct but I don't 393 00:41:59,400 --> 00:42:01,580 think it's the instinct of a shark. 394 00:42:01,580 --> 00:42:04,560 I think it's the instinct of maybe getting what 395 00:42:04,560 --> 00:42:07,863 I want or knowing how to get what I want. 396 00:42:08,950 --> 00:42:10,760 - [Narrator] Only a few recognized the profit 397 00:42:10,760 --> 00:42:14,760 opportunities in this new era as well as Donald Trump. 398 00:42:14,760 --> 00:42:17,240 He made large scale purchases of derelict New 399 00:42:17,240 --> 00:42:19,950 York apartment blocks and promised to transform 400 00:42:19,950 --> 00:42:23,040 them into luxury hotels and apartments. 401 00:42:23,040 --> 00:42:26,670 He received financing from banks high on the market boom 402 00:42:26,670 --> 00:42:30,340 and through the largest tax break in New York City history. 403 00:42:30,340 --> 00:42:32,753 Trump himself paid practically nothing. 404 00:42:33,770 --> 00:42:36,720 - Manhattan is an incredible place where you build 405 00:42:36,720 --> 00:42:39,310 a huge building and it's sold out in a matter of days. 406 00:42:39,310 --> 00:42:40,490 I mean, you know, you build a building 407 00:42:40,490 --> 00:42:42,970 with literally three or 400 units. 408 00:42:42,970 --> 00:42:44,980 I'm building a building, it's one of the hottest buildings 409 00:42:44,980 --> 00:42:48,340 anyone's ever seen, it's just selling like hotcakes. 410 00:42:48,340 --> 00:42:52,323 Manhattan itself is becoming a place of the rich period. 411 00:42:59,008 --> 00:43:00,950 - Where are your limits, Mr. Trump? 412 00:43:00,950 --> 00:43:03,970 - Well, I don't what my limits are but I know 413 00:43:03,970 --> 00:43:06,360 that when I reach my limits I hope I'm gonna 414 00:43:06,360 --> 00:43:08,233 be able to know at that point. 415 00:43:13,530 --> 00:43:15,980 - [Narrator] The genie was out of the bottle. 416 00:43:15,980 --> 00:43:18,043 The brave new world of financial capitalism 417 00:43:18,043 --> 00:43:20,790 could no longer be constrained. 418 00:43:20,790 --> 00:43:22,630 And great efforts were made to sell 419 00:43:22,630 --> 00:43:25,033 it as a controllable and secure system. 420 00:43:27,710 --> 00:43:30,080 - The whole industry is based around a kind 421 00:43:30,080 --> 00:43:33,820 of illusion and the illusion of certainty. 422 00:43:33,820 --> 00:43:37,260 There is a vested interest if you like inside of the system 423 00:43:37,260 --> 00:43:42,260 as it is to project knowledge and extra knowledge. 424 00:43:42,490 --> 00:43:44,550 And that's not to say that the people who are 425 00:43:44,550 --> 00:43:47,578 in it are telling lies, it's that they're doing 426 00:43:47,578 --> 00:43:51,854 their best with what they have but they really 427 00:43:51,854 --> 00:43:54,523 don't have any more knowledge than probably you do. 428 00:44:00,350 --> 00:44:02,290 - [Narrator] The Bloomberg Company from New York 429 00:44:02,290 --> 00:44:05,380 plays a central role in the financial system. 430 00:44:05,380 --> 00:44:08,550 Since the 1980s, Bloomberg has provided stock traders 431 00:44:08,550 --> 00:44:11,890 and bankers with lightning fast price fluctuations 432 00:44:11,890 --> 00:44:14,834 and finance data from around the globe making it one 433 00:44:14,834 --> 00:44:17,883 of the world's most influential media companies. 434 00:44:18,930 --> 00:44:22,060 Around the clock, Bloomberg's news agency and stock market 435 00:44:22,060 --> 00:44:25,363 channel broadcast the glad tidings of the free market. 436 00:44:28,510 --> 00:44:30,000 - Our role in financial markets 437 00:44:30,000 --> 00:44:32,470 is as a provider of transparency. 438 00:44:32,470 --> 00:44:35,100 We provide a huge amount of data, a huge amount 439 00:44:35,100 --> 00:44:38,440 of numbers on markets, on economies, on companies, 440 00:44:38,440 --> 00:44:41,930 all the things that investors and companies themselves 441 00:44:41,930 --> 00:44:45,420 need to operate to make money can be discovered through 442 00:44:45,420 --> 00:44:47,722 the Bloomberg be it through the data we provide 443 00:44:47,722 --> 00:44:50,002 or be it in the form of breaking news 444 00:44:50,002 --> 00:44:52,970 from our journalists from around the world. 445 00:44:52,970 --> 00:44:55,213 It's a one stop shop for the financial markets. 446 00:45:02,520 --> 00:45:04,090 We're trying to inform the markets, we're certainly 447 00:45:04,090 --> 00:45:06,820 not trying to drive them providing a chronicle 448 00:45:06,820 --> 00:45:10,170 of capitalism, telling the story of money is vitally 449 00:45:10,170 --> 00:45:13,200 important at Bloomberg and central to what Bloomberg does. 450 00:45:13,200 --> 00:45:16,150 We're trying to make a real world feel for people 451 00:45:16,150 --> 00:45:19,250 so that they understand what's happened and why 452 00:45:19,250 --> 00:45:21,300 it's happened and what might happen next. 453 00:45:27,150 --> 00:45:29,580 Economic growth data is one of the most 454 00:45:29,580 --> 00:45:31,898 important numbers we look for, it provides 455 00:45:31,898 --> 00:45:36,640 a football score on the state of an economy. 456 00:45:36,640 --> 00:45:39,382 Steady, solid growth in financial markets 457 00:45:39,382 --> 00:45:43,500 is usually reflected in solid sustainable 458 00:45:43,500 --> 00:45:48,450 growth in economics, in demand, in jobs markets. 459 00:45:48,450 --> 00:45:51,720 The reason is that people feel wealthier. 460 00:45:51,720 --> 00:45:53,680 - These are the yields in Spain, Italy, 461 00:45:53,680 --> 00:45:55,670 Ireland, they're all falling today. 462 00:45:55,670 --> 00:45:58,830 Bond insurance is falling across Europe today 463 00:45:58,830 --> 00:46:01,371 and those are the commodities, the far right hand side 464 00:46:01,371 --> 00:46:06,020 of your screen after Greece of course received a deal. 465 00:46:06,020 --> 00:46:08,010 - [Simon Kennedy] If you look at the textbooks there should 466 00:46:08,010 --> 00:46:10,660 be no limits to growth but if you look in the newspapers at 467 00:46:10,660 --> 00:46:15,660 the moment you get the feeling there is a break on growth. 468 00:46:15,660 --> 00:46:19,374 The central question now is whether we're in a cyclical 469 00:46:19,374 --> 00:46:23,870 slump or whether something structural is going on. 470 00:46:23,870 --> 00:46:27,763 - Nine percent lower, biggest drop since 2008. 471 00:46:29,239 --> 00:46:31,860 - [Interviewer] And do you have a personal opinion on that? 472 00:46:31,860 --> 00:46:34,573 - I don't have a personal opinion, I'm a journalist. 473 00:46:36,410 --> 00:46:38,160 I do but I'm not going to share it. 474 00:46:51,890 --> 00:46:54,120 So the history of the world would suggest that man 475 00:46:54,120 --> 00:46:57,030 actually usually gets it right quite a lot of the time. 476 00:46:57,030 --> 00:46:59,389 That when backs are put against the wall 477 00:46:59,389 --> 00:47:02,061 those entrepreneurs, those investors have 478 00:47:02,061 --> 00:47:05,105 smart ideas can actually flourish. 479 00:47:05,105 --> 00:47:10,105 If you look back 20 years, the idea of Facebook or Twitter, 480 00:47:10,969 --> 00:47:14,800 of Apple computers, of all those things that we almost take 481 00:47:14,800 --> 00:47:18,360 for granted these days, are new sources of growth. 482 00:47:18,360 --> 00:47:20,390 Yes, the world can reinvent itself. 483 00:47:20,390 --> 00:47:23,361 It has done so multiple times in history. 484 00:47:23,361 --> 00:47:25,050 You can usually bet on the human 485 00:47:25,050 --> 00:47:27,493 being to find a better future. 486 00:47:32,580 --> 00:47:36,500 - I used Bloomberg for, throughout my 28 year career. 487 00:47:36,500 --> 00:47:37,483 Every single day. 488 00:47:40,738 --> 00:47:43,320 Empires are based upon people's remaining to have 489 00:47:43,320 --> 00:47:46,350 confidence in the information that they're giving out 490 00:47:46,350 --> 00:47:50,154 and the promotion of the ideology and the narrative which 491 00:47:50,154 --> 00:47:53,810 finance is based around which has increasingly become this 492 00:47:53,810 --> 00:47:57,890 kind of game show approach to things in order to get people 493 00:47:57,890 --> 00:48:01,543 to invest, be interested, see the possibilities in it. 494 00:48:03,140 --> 00:48:04,890 The capitalist message if you like. 495 00:48:05,930 --> 00:48:09,940 For a period of time, everybody wins, that's the thing. 496 00:48:09,940 --> 00:48:10,850 And it's stable. 497 00:48:10,850 --> 00:48:14,420 Mathematically it's stable for a certain period of time. 498 00:48:14,420 --> 00:48:17,100 And then as you know a number of economists, 499 00:48:17,100 --> 00:48:20,194 Marx, Keynes, have pointed out, is eventually 500 00:48:20,194 --> 00:48:24,310 all these manias go up a lot and then they crash down. 501 00:48:41,870 --> 00:48:45,200 - So there was heavy lobbying by the financial sector on 502 00:48:45,200 --> 00:48:48,550 the government to ensure actually that this financial sector 503 00:48:48,550 --> 00:48:52,330 growth could continue and governments believed that it was 504 00:48:52,330 --> 00:48:54,890 in the interest of the economy because everyone told them, 505 00:48:54,890 --> 00:48:57,860 monetarism told them, if you had all this liquidity in 506 00:48:57,860 --> 00:49:00,830 the system then you must be growing your real economy. 507 00:49:00,830 --> 00:49:04,040 But actually what was happening within that system rather 508 00:49:04,040 --> 00:49:06,430 was that you'd freed up all this money which was then used 509 00:49:06,430 --> 00:49:11,140 to bet on the increases in the value of certain companies 510 00:49:11,140 --> 00:49:14,520 and certain shares and of money itself in the system. 511 00:49:14,520 --> 00:49:16,810 And the people who were doing that betting were 512 00:49:16,810 --> 00:49:19,618 not only profiting from it but they were also 513 00:49:19,618 --> 00:49:22,100 the only people who were regulating the system. 514 00:49:22,100 --> 00:49:24,270 So, it created a huge unstable and 515 00:49:24,270 --> 00:49:29,270 an incredibly unequal system in which 516 00:49:29,480 --> 00:49:33,303 the rich got very much richer really very fast. 517 00:49:37,600 --> 00:49:39,540 - [Narrator] For decades, society has been 518 00:49:39,540 --> 00:49:42,090 transformed into an enormous market to which 519 00:49:42,090 --> 00:49:44,113 there's allegedly no alternative. 520 00:49:45,850 --> 00:49:48,180 The huge sums earned by a few in the financial 521 00:49:48,180 --> 00:49:51,270 markets scream for high returns and have 522 00:49:51,270 --> 00:49:53,423 penetrated every corner of the globe. 523 00:49:54,750 --> 00:49:57,380 New ways are constantly sought to expand 524 00:49:57,380 --> 00:49:59,313 profits already in the trillions. 525 00:50:00,570 --> 00:50:03,570 The world seems to be getting too small for all the capital. 526 00:50:05,384 --> 00:50:07,967 (gentle music) 527 00:51:27,720 --> 00:51:30,760 - When I was a kid, I couldn't afford to fly 528 00:51:30,760 --> 00:51:33,520 in an aeroplane, I actually joined the air transport 529 00:51:33,520 --> 00:51:35,763 industry before I ever flew in an aeroplane. 530 00:51:36,660 --> 00:51:39,260 Today, people take flying for granted. 531 00:51:39,260 --> 00:51:41,800 It shaped the way we buy goods, it shaped 532 00:51:41,800 --> 00:51:43,517 the places people go to, it shaped the meetings 533 00:51:43,517 --> 00:51:46,683 between people and different cultures. 534 00:51:50,830 --> 00:51:54,180 Over the next 20 years we expect the world 535 00:51:54,180 --> 00:51:58,080 to need 32,000 new civil aircraft, 536 00:51:58,080 --> 00:52:00,830 passenger aircraft and freighter aircraft. 537 00:52:00,830 --> 00:52:05,587 And we expect to sell a significant share of those 32,000. 538 00:52:15,650 --> 00:52:19,670 At the moment, around one billion of the people 539 00:52:19,670 --> 00:52:22,433 who live on our planet fly by air regularly. 540 00:52:24,000 --> 00:52:27,320 The remaining six billion don't yet fly by air 541 00:52:27,320 --> 00:52:31,320 and it's these people who will be tomorrow's passengers 542 00:52:31,320 --> 00:52:35,070 and tomorrow's customers in addition for those of us 543 00:52:35,070 --> 00:52:37,620 in developed countries who take flying for granted. 544 00:52:38,770 --> 00:52:40,509 Clearly this means that the biggest scope 545 00:52:40,509 --> 00:52:43,910 for growth is where the people are and where 546 00:52:43,910 --> 00:52:47,190 the economic wealth is, the disposable incomes are. 547 00:52:47,190 --> 00:52:52,137 So, top of the list come Asia Pacific, China, India, 548 00:52:52,137 --> 00:52:57,137 Indonesia, southeast Asia followed quickly by Latin 549 00:52:57,500 --> 00:53:01,121 America where we see strong growth and a little further 550 00:53:01,121 --> 00:53:05,593 behind but growing strongly from a small base is Africa. 551 00:53:09,802 --> 00:53:11,969 (mumbles) 552 00:53:33,854 --> 00:53:35,450 You have to go to China to appreciate 553 00:53:35,450 --> 00:53:38,373 how strongly China has been growing. 554 00:53:39,270 --> 00:53:42,300 Beijing capital airport has become just 555 00:53:42,300 --> 00:53:45,120 recently the busiest airport in the world. 556 00:53:45,120 --> 00:53:47,410 And that growth will be continued with a new 557 00:53:47,410 --> 00:53:52,250 Beijing airport as well as the growth in the major hubs. 558 00:53:52,250 --> 00:53:53,793 A lot of growth in China. 559 00:53:56,171 --> 00:53:58,754 (gentle music) 560 00:54:53,057 --> 00:54:58,057 - We have delivered over the last six years more 561 00:54:58,480 --> 00:55:03,380 than 100 brand new airplanes to the allies in China. 562 00:55:03,380 --> 00:55:06,940 Ever year more than, in other terms, 563 00:55:06,940 --> 00:55:11,940 around one airplane every three days to China. 564 00:55:19,900 --> 00:55:22,983 The change is spectacular. 565 00:55:24,670 --> 00:55:28,833 I can't imagine that when I came here in 1994. 566 00:55:31,240 --> 00:55:34,480 On the street and you can see everywhere 567 00:55:34,480 --> 00:55:38,480 full of bicycles today and if you look at 568 00:55:38,480 --> 00:55:43,480 the street and very limited number of the bicycles. 569 00:55:44,820 --> 00:55:47,253 That has changed very strongly. 570 00:55:53,316 --> 00:55:56,900 - [Interviewer] You have more traffic jams today? 571 00:55:56,900 --> 00:55:59,793 - Traffic jam is a real headache in Beijing. 572 00:56:01,340 --> 00:56:04,640 A huge city like Beijing, there are too much cars. 573 00:56:04,640 --> 00:56:06,623 Yes, it's another headache. 574 00:57:09,657 --> 00:57:12,050 - Currently we have slightly more 575 00:57:12,050 --> 00:57:14,593 than 200 airports in China. 576 00:57:15,620 --> 00:57:18,890 And every year in the range of 10 577 00:57:18,890 --> 00:57:22,400 or 15 new airports will be built. 578 00:57:22,400 --> 00:57:24,360 The market is huge and we are 579 00:57:24,360 --> 00:57:29,230 optimistic because with 1.4 billion population. 580 00:57:29,230 --> 00:57:34,230 Imagine if everybody can afford the travel expenses 581 00:57:36,310 --> 00:57:39,340 even a peasant with low cost business model, 582 00:57:39,340 --> 00:57:43,000 a worker is willing to travel by air. 583 00:57:43,000 --> 00:57:45,350 The market is fantastic. 584 00:57:45,350 --> 00:57:50,350 You can't imagine and I already seen the sign of that. 585 00:57:51,900 --> 00:57:54,840 That's why when I look at it, every time I'm 586 00:57:54,840 --> 00:57:57,540 asked about the prospective of the market, 587 00:57:57,540 --> 00:58:01,250 I cannot imagine the dimension of this market. 588 00:58:01,250 --> 00:58:05,516 When I have the reference of 1.4 billion which 589 00:58:05,516 --> 00:58:09,453 is even more important than the whole of Europe. 590 00:58:11,700 --> 00:58:16,023 Every 15 years the world fleet will be doubled again. 591 00:58:17,010 --> 00:58:20,750 In China, you don't need to wait 15 years, 592 00:58:20,750 --> 00:58:24,330 seven, eight years, you get the fleet doubled. 593 00:58:24,330 --> 00:58:27,263 It's quicker than in other parts of the world. 594 00:58:31,108 --> 00:58:33,130 - [Interviewer] But more air traffic means more pollution. 595 00:58:33,130 --> 00:58:34,623 What do you do about that? 596 00:58:36,370 --> 00:58:41,220 - We made every single effort to try to reduce emissions 597 00:58:41,220 --> 00:58:45,620 but if we look at the social benefits and to 598 00:58:45,620 --> 00:58:48,680 the economic benefits that the aviation industry brings 599 00:58:48,680 --> 00:58:53,680 to humanity, and then people may think differently. 600 00:58:57,500 --> 00:59:01,993 We are trying to make the world smaller and smaller. 601 00:59:05,480 --> 00:59:07,690 To make it a real village. 602 00:59:11,765 --> 00:59:14,348 (gentle music) 603 00:59:43,171 --> 00:59:45,338 (mumbles) 604 00:59:47,794 --> 00:59:48,627 - [Woman] Copy that. 605 00:59:48,627 --> 00:59:50,230 - [Narrator] For decades, growth was kept 606 00:59:50,230 --> 00:59:53,210 on life support with debt. 607 00:59:53,210 --> 00:59:55,930 Only a few had the courage to say that the party 608 00:59:55,930 --> 00:59:58,923 couldn't go on forever but no one listened to them. 609 00:59:59,870 --> 01:00:03,490 In September 2008, the time had come. 610 01:00:03,490 --> 01:00:04,940 The house of cards collapsed. 611 01:00:34,280 --> 01:00:35,160 - [Reporter] It's a black Monday 612 01:00:35,160 --> 01:00:37,200 for the American capital market. 613 01:00:37,200 --> 01:00:39,880 Despite dramatic rescue efforts over the weekend, 614 01:00:39,880 --> 01:00:41,900 all efforts to keep the world's fourth largest 615 01:00:41,900 --> 01:00:44,750 investment bank alive have failed. 616 01:00:44,750 --> 01:00:47,433 Lehman Brothers is shutting its doors for good. 617 01:00:48,490 --> 01:00:49,700 - It's also, I think, a necessary 618 01:00:49,700 --> 01:00:51,390 part of the cleanup process. 619 01:00:51,390 --> 01:00:55,270 Lehman we knew was weak, we expected it to go. 620 01:00:55,270 --> 01:00:56,630 It's not going in the way that people 621 01:00:56,630 --> 01:00:58,503 expected it to but it's gone. 622 01:01:03,794 --> 01:01:06,000 - In the long run I'm confident that our capital markets are 623 01:01:06,000 --> 01:01:10,170 flexible and resilient and can deal with these adjustments. 624 01:01:10,170 --> 01:01:11,156 - [Interviewer] Just tell us how you're feeling, 625 01:01:11,156 --> 01:01:12,418 it's awful I know but. 626 01:01:12,418 --> 01:01:13,602 - It sucks. 627 01:01:13,602 --> 01:01:15,702 - [Interviewer] Did you see it coming at all? 628 01:01:15,702 --> 01:01:16,952 - No, I didn't. 629 01:01:20,070 --> 01:01:22,010 - There was a deep shock in the system, there was 630 01:01:22,010 --> 01:01:25,160 a sense of, my goodness, we can't let this happen again 631 01:01:25,160 --> 01:01:27,522 governments have to have a better handle on this 632 01:01:27,522 --> 01:01:31,390 system and for a while there were attempts to do that. 633 01:01:31,390 --> 01:01:35,413 It lasted probably a matter of a few months. 634 01:01:35,413 --> 01:01:40,304 In fact, by the end of 2009 and into 2010, 635 01:01:40,304 --> 01:01:44,270 the very same companies that had been responsible 636 01:01:44,270 --> 01:01:47,233 for some of that disaster were still engaging in those 637 01:01:47,233 --> 01:01:50,866 same kinds of risky trading procedures that for 638 01:01:50,866 --> 01:01:54,260 a while had been stopped in the wake of the crisis. 639 01:01:54,260 --> 01:01:57,833 And we learned the lesson but then we forgot it again. 640 01:02:01,790 --> 01:02:03,350 - [Narrator] The financial crisis was a huge 641 01:02:03,350 --> 01:02:06,110 opportunity for governments to free the world from its 642 01:02:06,110 --> 01:02:10,090 dependency on financial markets and to change the system. 643 01:02:10,090 --> 01:02:11,790 But they wasted it. 644 01:02:11,790 --> 01:02:15,320 Instead they did all they could to revive the old system, 645 01:02:15,320 --> 01:02:18,173 spending trillions of dollars to save the banks. 646 01:02:19,550 --> 01:02:22,040 Then something incredible happened. 647 01:02:22,040 --> 01:02:25,180 The banking crisis miraculously became a sovereign 648 01:02:25,180 --> 01:02:29,290 debt crisis, private debt became public debt. 649 01:02:29,290 --> 01:02:32,210 Governments and their citizens were subjected to austerity 650 01:02:32,210 --> 01:02:35,633 policies under which millions of people suffer to this day. 651 01:02:36,940 --> 01:02:39,631 Banks and stock markets, however, were keen to demonstrate 652 01:02:39,631 --> 01:02:42,343 a sense of normalcy as soon as possible. 653 01:02:43,300 --> 01:02:46,710 In reality, nothing is as it seems. 654 01:02:46,710 --> 01:02:49,260 Capitalism survived the crisis but no 655 01:02:49,260 --> 01:02:51,483 longer functions like it once did. 656 01:02:59,490 --> 01:03:01,360 - Even though it's not as busy as it used to be, 657 01:03:01,360 --> 01:03:03,530 this is still the center of capitalism. 658 01:03:03,530 --> 01:03:05,140 You can look at all the tourists who are 659 01:03:05,140 --> 01:03:07,600 outside the building taking pictures. 660 01:03:07,600 --> 01:03:10,430 They all still believe this is the center of capitalism. 661 01:03:10,430 --> 01:03:14,140 It may not be as busy as before but it's a symbol 662 01:03:15,020 --> 01:03:17,070 of something, it means something to them. 663 01:03:25,933 --> 01:03:28,170 Here we have visits like when President Bush 664 01:03:28,170 --> 01:03:30,163 came on to the floor and visited. 665 01:03:31,080 --> 01:03:33,040 That's John Thain, the former CEO 666 01:03:33,040 --> 01:03:34,770 of the New York Stock Exchange. 667 01:03:34,770 --> 01:03:36,950 You're looking for growth, that's what all 668 01:03:36,950 --> 01:03:39,047 of these people are looking for, how to grow their 669 01:03:39,047 --> 01:03:43,030 companies, how to grow the economy, how to make more money, 670 01:03:43,030 --> 01:03:48,030 how to employ more people, how to get people wages growing. 671 01:03:48,524 --> 01:03:51,350 The whole game here is how to get growth, 672 01:03:51,350 --> 01:03:54,710 how to employ people, how to keep the global economy going. 673 01:03:54,710 --> 01:03:56,060 That's what it's all about. 674 01:03:56,987 --> 01:03:57,820 Come on. 675 01:04:06,340 --> 01:04:09,150 I'm sort of like the weatherman for the stock market. 676 01:04:09,150 --> 01:04:11,310 I come in every day and try to figure out what's 677 01:04:11,310 --> 01:04:14,330 going on in the stock market, I talk to trading desks, 678 01:04:14,330 --> 01:04:17,030 I talk to analysts, I talk to people who know 679 01:04:17,030 --> 01:04:19,280 a lot about the stock market, and I go on the air 680 01:04:19,280 --> 01:04:21,970 and on the internet and explain what's going on. 681 01:04:21,970 --> 01:04:23,740 So, every day I come in and try to figure out 682 01:04:23,740 --> 01:04:25,990 which way the wind is blowing on Wall Street. 683 01:04:32,859 --> 01:04:34,526 - Opening at $60.12. 684 01:04:40,443 --> 01:04:42,070 - Congratulations, a big day for all of you. 685 01:04:42,070 --> 01:04:43,910 Congratulations and, again, happy to have you. 686 01:04:43,910 --> 01:04:44,743 Thank you very much. 687 01:04:44,743 --> 01:04:47,123 This is my favorite part of my job. 688 01:04:47,123 --> 01:04:48,690 - Watching IPOs. 689 01:04:48,690 --> 01:04:49,890 - Watching people make money. 690 01:04:49,890 --> 01:04:52,840 Watching capitalism at work. 691 01:04:52,840 --> 01:04:53,899 Congratulations. 692 01:04:53,899 --> 01:04:54,943 - Thanks Bob. 693 01:05:00,890 --> 01:05:04,390 - So, remember the S&P 500, though, is now 1.5% this month. 694 01:05:04,390 --> 01:05:06,700 We have very clear market leaders and 695 01:05:06,700 --> 01:05:08,850 the reason we've had it is because better 696 01:05:08,850 --> 01:05:11,370 prospects for earnings in the fourth quarter. 697 01:05:11,370 --> 01:05:13,100 Remember what the market leaders have been? 698 01:05:13,100 --> 01:05:14,880 Energy, tech, and banks. 699 01:05:14,880 --> 01:05:18,927 Lagging today, energy tech, and banks, that's interesting. 700 01:05:18,927 --> 01:05:20,103 Thanks guys. 701 01:05:23,570 --> 01:05:25,370 - Hey, Bob, let me just change your. 702 01:05:30,330 --> 01:05:32,395 - You can't come up and say, well, the markets 703 01:05:32,395 --> 01:05:34,899 are just drifting around, there is no real meeting 704 01:05:34,899 --> 01:05:39,000 of anything that's happening today, back to you Sue. 705 01:05:39,000 --> 01:05:39,970 That won't make any sense, 706 01:05:39,970 --> 01:05:41,720 nobody's gonna be interested in that. 707 01:05:41,720 --> 01:05:45,550 Human beings want stories, they don't want an endless list 708 01:05:45,550 --> 01:05:48,330 of numbers, nobody's impressed with a list of numbers. 709 01:05:48,330 --> 01:05:49,970 They want to know what's going on. 710 01:05:49,970 --> 01:05:52,767 Tell us in plain English what the markets are 711 01:05:52,767 --> 01:05:56,420 doing and that's the real skillset and often that's 712 01:05:56,420 --> 01:05:58,670 not easy because things are very complicated. 713 01:06:02,800 --> 01:06:05,373 Hey, so what do you think's going on here? 714 01:06:08,737 --> 01:06:11,740 Yeah. 715 01:06:11,740 --> 01:06:15,950 Azure Power opened at 16.12, now trading at 15.29, 716 01:06:15,950 --> 01:06:17,215 that's kind of a disappointment. 717 01:06:17,215 --> 01:06:18,720 - Yeah, down 15%. 718 01:06:18,720 --> 01:06:19,900 - They were very nice, though, 719 01:06:19,900 --> 01:06:21,630 they were such wonderful people. 720 01:06:21,630 --> 01:06:24,908 They all came from India to do the whole solar power thing. 721 01:06:24,908 --> 01:06:25,741 - Oh yeah. 722 01:06:25,741 --> 01:06:26,574 - They were all excited. 723 01:06:26,574 --> 01:06:28,820 It was just a great moment to talk to them. 724 01:06:28,820 --> 01:06:30,590 And they've been, they said they've 725 01:06:30,590 --> 01:06:32,573 been watching CNBC for 20 years. 726 01:06:37,000 --> 01:06:39,276 People have always claimed that capitalism 727 01:06:39,276 --> 01:06:42,680 can be evil and capitalism doesn't help people. 728 01:06:42,680 --> 01:06:44,680 I completely disagree. 729 01:06:44,680 --> 01:06:47,499 What I see in the last 150 years is millions 730 01:06:47,499 --> 01:06:50,840 of people have been lifted out of poverty. 731 01:06:50,840 --> 01:06:54,680 I personally am a true believer and still believe that 732 01:06:54,680 --> 01:06:58,673 the system works well and I'm committed to that system. 733 01:09:05,627 --> 01:09:07,543 - Here's the news for the day. 734 01:09:08,400 --> 01:09:13,113 Everybody love each other and quit screwing each other over. 735 01:09:14,270 --> 01:09:15,943 Be a friend to everybody. 736 01:09:17,030 --> 01:09:19,130 And don't forget just 'cause we're homeless 737 01:09:19,130 --> 01:09:20,530 don't mean we're bad people. 738 01:09:26,810 --> 01:09:29,002 - I think what we've seen over the last few years 739 01:09:29,002 --> 01:09:34,002 is cracks in the shiny surface of capitalism. 740 01:09:36,140 --> 01:09:37,860 And at first that's what they look like, you know, 741 01:09:37,860 --> 01:09:40,780 they just look as though something not quite right 742 01:09:40,780 --> 01:09:44,070 on the way the light reflects off it. 743 01:09:44,070 --> 01:09:48,550 And as you look more and more closely, you see 744 01:09:51,140 --> 01:09:55,053 that these cracks go right to the heart of the model. 745 01:09:55,910 --> 01:10:00,910 They go right to the heart of the basic ideas of capitalism. 746 01:10:06,790 --> 01:10:09,550 - [Narrator] Does capitalism still work? 747 01:10:09,550 --> 01:10:11,763 Can the system deliver what it promises, 748 01:10:12,870 --> 01:10:13,937 providing growth, jobs, and prosperity for all? 749 01:13:26,780 --> 01:13:29,020 - [Narrator] Ever since the Industrial Revolution, 750 01:13:29,020 --> 01:13:31,810 machines have been replacing human labor. 751 01:13:31,810 --> 01:13:33,923 Thereby causing great societal upheavals. 752 01:13:35,110 --> 01:13:37,030 But until recently, they have only 753 01:13:37,030 --> 01:13:39,313 replaced the physical labor of humans. 754 01:13:40,430 --> 01:13:42,360 Now machines are capable of doing what 755 01:13:42,360 --> 01:13:46,440 makes us humans unique, they are able to think. 756 01:13:46,440 --> 01:13:49,330 It's a completely new chapter in human history which 757 01:13:49,330 --> 01:13:52,923 will have massive consequences on how we live and work. 758 01:13:58,980 --> 01:14:00,890 - [Woman] Can technology think? 759 01:14:00,890 --> 01:14:01,763 Watson can. 760 01:14:03,460 --> 01:14:06,730 IBM Watson is a technology unlike any that's come before. 761 01:14:06,730 --> 01:14:09,530 Because rather than force humans to think like a computer, 762 01:14:09,530 --> 01:14:11,853 Watson interacts with humans on human terms. 763 01:14:15,260 --> 01:14:18,260 You don't program Watson, you work with Watson. 764 01:14:18,260 --> 01:14:19,770 And through your interactions with it, 765 01:14:19,770 --> 01:14:21,303 it learns just like we do. 766 01:15:00,167 --> 01:15:01,876 - Are you interested in talking about 767 01:15:01,876 --> 01:15:04,760 how I express and understand emotions? 768 01:15:04,760 --> 01:15:08,057 I can express emotions with my voice, gestures, 769 01:15:08,057 --> 01:15:12,543 as well as becoming (mumbles) on my shoulders. 770 01:15:12,543 --> 01:15:16,682 As you can see I'm a humanoid robot created by. 771 01:15:16,682 --> 01:15:20,238 I am a sophisticated combination of hardware and software 772 01:15:20,238 --> 01:15:24,502 designed to interact with humans and bring them joy. 773 01:15:24,502 --> 01:15:25,502 - Thank you. 774 01:15:55,530 --> 01:15:57,784 - [Narrator] In the future, algorithms and robots 775 01:15:57,784 --> 01:16:00,510 will be able to carry out nearly every routine 776 01:16:00,510 --> 01:16:03,860 task previously performed by humans. 777 01:16:03,860 --> 01:16:06,390 Millions of jobs will vanish. 778 01:16:06,390 --> 01:16:08,690 These new technologies do provide economic 779 01:16:08,690 --> 01:16:11,710 growth but not much in the way of jobs. 780 01:16:11,710 --> 01:16:14,123 And that could endanger capitalism itself. 781 01:16:15,030 --> 01:16:17,200 Who will be able to purchase all the nice 782 01:16:17,200 --> 01:16:19,820 things mass produced every day when there are not 783 01:16:19,820 --> 01:16:22,743 enough people who can pay for them with their wages? 784 01:16:36,108 --> 01:16:38,691 (gentle music) 785 01:16:49,450 --> 01:16:51,270 Are we all passengers on a plane 786 01:16:51,270 --> 01:16:53,213 whose navigation system is broken? 787 01:16:54,430 --> 01:16:56,980 Are we still in control of the system? 788 01:16:56,980 --> 01:16:59,492 Or is it controlling us? 789 01:16:59,492 --> 01:17:02,075 (gentle music) 790 01:17:47,110 --> 01:17:49,500 In financial markets, algorithms have 791 01:17:49,500 --> 01:17:51,820 long since been running the show. 792 01:17:51,820 --> 01:17:54,180 Computers interact with other computers 793 01:17:54,180 --> 01:17:58,230 in fractions of a second without any human input. 794 01:17:58,230 --> 01:18:01,030 And sometimes they do things that were not planned. 795 01:18:01,030 --> 01:18:04,133 Like in the flash crash of May 2010. 796 01:18:05,335 --> 01:18:07,510 - [Man] Wow, almost 1,000 points. 797 01:18:07,510 --> 01:18:09,323 We call this a capitulation. 798 01:18:10,420 --> 01:18:12,720 They're gonna probably halt trading. 799 01:18:12,720 --> 01:18:15,270 We can't stop the selling. 800 01:18:15,270 --> 01:18:19,080 - The flash crash was an incident in which markets 801 01:18:19,080 --> 01:18:22,543 essentially disappeared for a few seconds. 802 01:18:23,420 --> 01:18:28,250 The whole event took maybe 40 minutes but there 803 01:18:28,250 --> 01:18:32,740 was a moment during this massive stock market decline 804 01:18:32,740 --> 01:18:36,330 which was not triggered by any particular event. 805 01:18:36,330 --> 01:18:39,710 There was no news, there was no dramatic change 806 01:18:39,710 --> 01:18:43,770 in economic conditions or corporate fundamentals. 807 01:18:43,770 --> 01:18:47,850 It was simply a positive feedback loop kicked off 808 01:18:47,850 --> 01:18:52,850 within a complex system that fed upon itself and suddenly 809 01:18:53,315 --> 01:18:55,820 all of the computer systems that were looking at 810 01:18:55,820 --> 01:18:58,867 the same signals in the same ways all reacted at 811 01:18:58,867 --> 01:19:03,653 the same time and withdrew their orders from the market. 812 01:19:08,370 --> 01:19:13,010 As the market continued to drop and risk limits were 813 01:19:13,010 --> 01:19:18,010 being hit and programs were reacting in unexpected ways, 814 01:19:18,990 --> 01:19:22,570 you could see them getting more and more frantic until 815 01:19:22,570 --> 01:19:25,430 at some point the head of a firm came running out onto 816 01:19:25,430 --> 01:19:28,777 the trading floor shouting shut it off, shut it all off! 817 01:19:28,777 --> 01:19:31,850 And we just started hitting control C and killing 818 01:19:31,850 --> 01:19:34,530 programs left and right and any keyboard you could find 819 01:19:34,530 --> 01:19:38,431 you killed the program that was running and you know as 820 01:19:38,431 --> 01:19:42,040 you watched the market you could see the exact same 821 01:19:42,040 --> 01:19:44,920 thing was happening on every other trading floor 822 01:19:44,920 --> 01:19:48,103 because orders were just disappearing out of the market. 823 01:19:51,780 --> 01:19:54,050 It was that moment where you're sort of staring 824 01:19:54,050 --> 01:19:56,403 into the abyss and you're saying to yourself, 825 01:19:56,403 --> 01:19:59,610 what's gonna happen now? 826 01:19:59,610 --> 01:20:02,832 It doesn't make any sense that there's nothing economically 827 01:20:02,832 --> 01:20:06,103 that would explain why a market would just be gone. 828 01:20:16,020 --> 01:20:18,690 The modern financial market, it has become 829 01:20:18,690 --> 01:20:22,090 what would be called a complex adaptive system. 830 01:20:22,090 --> 01:20:24,470 Humans cannot control complex systems. 831 01:20:24,470 --> 01:20:28,935 That's the fallacy of how we approach regulation 832 01:20:28,935 --> 01:20:32,140 and oversight of a complex system. 833 01:20:32,140 --> 01:20:34,800 It can't be done because we can't understand them. 834 01:20:34,800 --> 01:20:36,323 There's too much going on. 835 01:20:39,260 --> 01:20:40,560 - [Interviewer] Do you think we have 836 01:20:40,560 --> 01:20:42,383 lost control of the system? 837 01:20:48,391 --> 01:20:49,470 - I don't know. 838 01:20:49,470 --> 01:20:51,523 Have we lost control of the system? 839 01:20:54,610 --> 01:20:56,393 Maybe control is overrated. 840 01:21:00,300 --> 01:21:04,932 Maybe it's okay to not necessarily be in control 841 01:21:04,932 --> 01:21:09,932 provided the economy is working for everyone. 842 01:21:10,150 --> 01:21:12,600 Now I don't think it's working for everyone. 843 01:21:12,600 --> 01:21:15,107 The economic system is not functioning as 844 01:21:15,107 --> 01:21:18,640 it should and the benefits are not accruing 845 01:21:18,640 --> 01:21:20,593 to as many people as they could be. 846 01:21:23,780 --> 01:21:25,270 - [Narrator] The flash crash also came 847 01:21:25,270 --> 01:21:27,550 and went without consequences. 848 01:21:27,550 --> 01:21:29,990 In fact, the capital turnover rate 849 01:21:29,990 --> 01:21:32,360 has accelerated since then. 850 01:21:32,360 --> 01:21:36,003 Today, computers interact in nanoseconds. 851 01:21:36,003 --> 01:21:38,563 A nanosecond is a billionth of a second. 852 01:22:23,700 --> 01:22:25,190 - In this room, that's what we do here. 853 01:22:25,190 --> 01:22:26,960 We have an on off switch, right? 854 01:22:26,960 --> 01:22:29,353 There's really no human intervention. 855 01:22:30,250 --> 01:22:33,330 I really don't believe in leaving the room 856 01:22:34,250 --> 01:22:38,453 and letting something trade unattended. 857 01:22:39,330 --> 01:22:42,760 It's about being there with the creation 858 01:22:42,760 --> 01:22:44,173 that you've worked on. 859 01:22:45,610 --> 01:22:48,900 Even if I don't, you don't control it, but you watch it. 860 01:22:48,900 --> 01:22:52,063 Is it doing everything that you designed it to do? 861 01:22:57,890 --> 01:23:01,365 I really don't interact with economists 862 01:23:01,365 --> 01:23:04,980 and policy makers so I'm gonna have to say 863 01:23:04,980 --> 01:23:06,670 there's really not much of a connection. 864 01:23:06,670 --> 01:23:10,170 I mean if there was a strong connection between the two, 865 01:23:10,170 --> 01:23:13,830 you'd think that firms in my space would have need 866 01:23:17,166 --> 01:23:21,040 for people with that kind of economic background. 867 01:23:24,660 --> 01:23:26,480 As I said, you now, who do we hire? 868 01:23:26,480 --> 01:23:29,930 We hire scientists, technologists, and lawyers. 869 01:23:29,930 --> 01:23:33,123 We don't hire MBAs, we don't hire economists. 870 01:23:35,650 --> 01:23:40,500 There are many mathematical models that come out of fields 871 01:23:40,500 --> 01:23:45,500 such as horse betting that are used in our business 872 01:23:45,680 --> 01:23:49,803 as kind of fundamental pieces of algorithmic trading. 873 01:23:50,640 --> 01:23:55,510 We somehow project in our capitalist society 874 01:23:55,510 --> 01:24:00,510 this idea that this is a safe environment 875 01:24:01,030 --> 01:24:05,000 for people to build up their retirement on. 876 01:24:05,000 --> 01:24:08,540 It's actually a hyper competitive environment 877 01:24:08,540 --> 01:24:13,236 and you know depending on the product there's, 878 01:24:13,236 --> 01:24:17,140 sometimes I feel safer going into a casino 879 01:24:17,140 --> 01:24:19,130 than trading certain products in our space. 880 01:24:19,130 --> 01:24:22,923 I mean, you know, so this idea that markets 881 01:24:28,208 --> 01:24:33,208 are somehow going to support a very, very large 882 01:24:34,680 --> 01:24:39,680 base of the population and kind of produce returns 883 01:24:39,890 --> 01:24:43,710 for them when in our space all we do is try 884 01:24:43,710 --> 01:24:47,433 to eliminate those returns, I mean that's the job. 885 01:24:51,090 --> 01:24:54,200 It is a very different world than the way 886 01:24:54,200 --> 01:24:56,533 it's advertised to the general public. 887 01:25:02,860 --> 01:25:04,730 - [Narrator] Financial markets are out of control 888 01:25:04,730 --> 01:25:07,403 and no longer have any connections to reality. 889 01:25:08,310 --> 01:25:11,210 While algorithms and robots produce growth, 890 01:25:11,210 --> 01:25:14,200 they only provide work and prosperity for a few. 891 01:25:14,200 --> 01:25:16,070 And it's this growth that's destroying 892 01:25:16,070 --> 01:25:17,483 our future on the planet. 893 01:25:18,540 --> 01:25:20,490 The signs that something has gone wrong with 894 01:25:20,490 --> 01:25:23,840 our system have become impossible to overlook. 895 01:25:23,840 --> 01:25:25,963 So why do we consistently ignore them? 896 01:25:28,980 --> 01:25:31,990 - Even though ordinary people actually don't 897 01:25:31,990 --> 01:25:34,972 have so much trouble with the idea that you can't 898 01:25:34,972 --> 01:25:39,460 go on growing on a finite planet, actually most 899 01:25:39,460 --> 01:25:42,310 people get that because it's very, very basic. 900 01:25:42,310 --> 01:25:45,832 There is nonetheless a political consensus 901 01:25:45,832 --> 01:25:50,832 and an institutional consensus for which that vision 902 01:25:50,920 --> 01:25:55,920 is incredibly important, it's incredibly deeply embedded. 903 01:25:56,540 --> 01:26:00,067 And so what you have is it's almost like a kind 904 01:26:00,067 --> 01:26:04,720 of collective schizophrenia that on the one hand 905 01:26:04,720 --> 01:26:07,300 we can see the blindingly obvious, it's staring 906 01:26:07,300 --> 01:26:10,730 us in the face and it is at one level 907 01:26:12,440 --> 01:26:17,440 something that even my kids, schoolkids, can get. 908 01:26:19,340 --> 01:26:21,560 You just don't go on growing and growing 909 01:26:21,560 --> 01:26:24,400 forever when you're in a finite place. 910 01:26:24,400 --> 01:26:29,400 And the only mechanisms from biology or from nature that 911 01:26:29,710 --> 01:26:33,803 we see that do that end up basically killing their host. 912 01:26:46,000 --> 01:26:49,690 - This is for TV right, I got to go the debate in Las 913 01:26:49,690 --> 01:26:52,567 Vegas and I have to do my show from out there so this is, 914 01:26:52,567 --> 01:26:56,290 the network puts all this stuff together for me. 915 01:26:56,290 --> 01:26:59,370 I'm dressing a lot better now than I was before I did 916 01:26:59,370 --> 01:27:01,960 television because they even hire you a stylist. 917 01:27:01,960 --> 01:27:03,263 You know what I mean? 918 01:27:04,550 --> 01:27:06,140 You guys look like shit so you obviously 919 01:27:06,140 --> 01:27:08,020 don't know what I'm talking about. 920 01:27:08,020 --> 01:27:10,420 This is some really nice clothing. 921 01:27:10,420 --> 01:27:11,480 Alright come on, come on in. 922 01:27:11,480 --> 01:27:13,270 - [Man] The most powerful name in financial 923 01:27:13,270 --> 01:27:15,970 television Wall Street week is back. 924 01:27:15,970 --> 01:27:16,960 - You have some news? 925 01:27:16,960 --> 01:27:18,990 - Skybridge actually purchased 926 01:27:18,990 --> 01:27:20,550 the rights to Wall Street week. 927 01:27:20,550 --> 01:27:22,668 - [Man] Skybridge Capital and its managing partner Anthony 928 01:27:22,668 --> 01:27:26,790 Scaramucci are reviving the iconic Wall Street week program. 929 01:27:26,790 --> 01:27:28,112 It's a show about money developed 930 01:27:28,112 --> 01:27:30,840 by people who work in money. 931 01:27:30,840 --> 01:27:34,570 - I view myself as a capital artist. 932 01:27:34,570 --> 01:27:37,313 This company that I've created is my canvas. 933 01:27:39,140 --> 01:27:41,710 I know you guys in the media don't like capitalism but you 934 01:27:41,710 --> 01:27:44,630 know someone's had to pay for the camera and the microphone 935 01:27:44,630 --> 01:27:47,850 so I mean at the end of the day the capitalist system is 936 01:27:47,850 --> 01:27:50,750 the only system that we've been able to design that works. 937 01:27:53,370 --> 01:27:57,170 Wall Street is still whether people like it or not, it's 938 01:27:57,170 --> 01:28:00,810 part of the participatory engine to financial growth. 939 01:28:00,810 --> 01:28:02,596 Let me just give you a perfect example, 940 01:28:02,596 --> 01:28:06,708 the American fracking process, the technological 941 01:28:06,708 --> 01:28:10,300 solutions created, you then need to mobilize 942 01:28:10,300 --> 01:28:14,140 capital into that solution to create the energy. 943 01:28:14,140 --> 01:28:16,077 Now some of the environmentalists don't like it 944 01:28:16,077 --> 01:28:18,170 and okay we can have a huge debate about that 945 01:28:18,170 --> 01:28:20,196 but at the end of the day this was an innovative 946 01:28:20,196 --> 01:28:24,510 idea that's unleashed a tremendous amount of surplus 947 01:28:24,510 --> 01:28:29,157 energy that the world didn't expect 15 or 20 years ago. 948 01:28:31,920 --> 01:28:33,558 Let's talk about growth okay. 949 01:28:33,558 --> 01:28:36,952 There is a perception right now in these elitist 950 01:28:36,952 --> 01:28:40,950 academic salons that we're not gonna grow anymore. 951 01:28:40,950 --> 01:28:42,630 Well, that's just flat out wrong. 952 01:28:42,630 --> 01:28:46,880 If you study 5,500 years of human history, 953 01:28:46,880 --> 01:28:49,500 we know that human beings are designed to have 954 01:28:49,500 --> 01:28:52,330 great intellectual curiosity and to innovate. 955 01:28:52,330 --> 01:28:54,140 There are so many things that we're gonna do 956 01:28:54,140 --> 01:28:57,590 over the next 50 years that's gonna shock everybody 957 01:28:57,590 --> 01:28:58,640 in terms of our capability. 958 01:28:58,640 --> 01:29:01,390 We're gonna pull asteroids down from the asteroid 959 01:29:01,390 --> 01:29:03,330 belt that are loaded with platinum that will 960 01:29:03,330 --> 01:29:05,530 probably be where the first trillionaire comes from. 961 01:29:05,530 --> 01:29:08,168 We're gonna unlock the ability to stop aging 962 01:29:08,168 --> 01:29:11,360 or to destroy cancerous cells in our bodies. 963 01:29:11,360 --> 01:29:13,760 All of this innovation is ahead of us 964 01:29:13,760 --> 01:29:16,340 and there's tremendous opportunity for growth. 965 01:29:16,340 --> 01:29:19,148 You're gonna grow as long as you get the tax policy 966 01:29:19,148 --> 01:29:22,911 and you get the economic regulations right and you 967 01:29:22,911 --> 01:29:25,878 create the incentive to grow and you send a message 968 01:29:25,878 --> 01:29:28,470 from Washington that we're open for business. 969 01:29:28,470 --> 01:29:31,460 You want to see three percent growth, four percent growth, 970 01:29:31,460 --> 01:29:35,970 you gotta change the academic view of this stuff and talk 971 01:29:35,970 --> 01:29:38,760 to real time practitioners that understand how to grow 972 01:29:38,760 --> 01:29:42,343 businesses and create innovation in the economy. 973 01:29:43,440 --> 01:29:46,020 There will always be growth on the planet, 974 01:29:46,020 --> 01:29:49,240 there will always be a jagged line upward 975 01:29:49,240 --> 01:29:51,890 for human beings because that's been the case 976 01:29:51,890 --> 01:29:54,910 for 5,500 years and as long as we don't blow each 977 01:29:54,910 --> 01:29:56,604 other up with nuclear weapons it will be the case 978 01:29:56,604 --> 01:29:59,153 for the next 5,500 years. 979 01:30:13,252 --> 01:30:15,890 - There's a sense of desperation to this strategy. 980 01:30:15,890 --> 01:30:19,470 There's a sense of having, you know, for a decade 981 01:30:19,470 --> 01:30:22,988 or so recognized there might be some limits 982 01:30:22,988 --> 01:30:27,343 to our ability to continually grow this system. 983 01:30:28,940 --> 01:30:32,092 And now, you know, we're tired of that idea. 984 01:30:32,092 --> 01:30:34,580 We don't want to be so realistic in the world. 985 01:30:34,580 --> 01:30:39,580 We would much rather have a total fantasy for our 986 01:30:39,968 --> 01:30:43,748 guiding star, we would like to have this vision that no, 987 01:30:43,748 --> 01:30:46,810 we don't have to think about curtailing growth, we have 988 01:30:46,810 --> 01:30:49,140 to think about making growth even stronger, we have 989 01:30:49,140 --> 01:30:52,170 to go harder for it, we have to make America great again. 990 01:30:52,170 --> 01:30:54,390 We can all be billionaires, 991 01:30:54,390 --> 01:30:56,556 we can all have property empires. 992 01:30:56,556 --> 01:30:58,492 And of course it's an illusion. 993 01:30:58,492 --> 01:31:01,025 And it goes back to exactly that same 994 01:31:01,025 --> 01:31:05,690 simple basic fact, we live on a finite planet. 995 01:31:05,690 --> 01:31:08,241 There isn't the space for the dream 996 01:31:08,241 --> 01:31:13,160 of this reinvigorated growth fetish. 997 01:31:13,160 --> 01:31:15,740 - [Reporter] This is a round trip for Donald Trump. 998 01:31:17,080 --> 01:31:19,550 - [Narrator] We live in extraordinary times. 999 01:31:19,550 --> 01:31:21,756 Our world is becoming increasingly complex 1000 01:31:21,756 --> 01:31:24,240 and many are disappointed to find that they 1001 01:31:24,240 --> 01:31:25,990 are worse off than they used to be. 1002 01:31:28,230 --> 01:31:30,216 But instead of doubting the economic system, 1003 01:31:30,216 --> 01:31:34,378 they turn to those who have profited from it the most, 1004 01:31:34,378 --> 01:31:37,283 those who continually promise new growth. 1005 01:31:39,320 --> 01:31:41,980 For these empty promises, more and more people 1006 01:31:41,980 --> 01:31:45,350 are apparently willing to sacrifice democracy, 1007 01:31:45,350 --> 01:31:47,363 peace, and the environment. 1008 01:31:49,390 --> 01:31:51,843 Capitalism has reached a new level of escalation. 1009 01:31:52,720 --> 01:31:55,860 But it's no longer suited to the world we live in. 1010 01:31:55,860 --> 01:31:57,783 It's end is closer than we think. 1011 01:32:01,914 --> 01:32:04,497 (gentle music) 1012 01:32:45,008 --> 01:32:45,841 - [Interviewer] Are you an optimistic 1013 01:32:45,841 --> 01:32:47,033 or a pessimistic person? 1014 01:32:48,540 --> 01:32:51,160 - I don't know that I've ever reflected on it. 1015 01:32:51,160 --> 01:32:54,680 You can't do this to me at this point in an interview. 1016 01:32:54,680 --> 01:32:56,340 Am I an optimist? 1017 01:32:56,340 --> 01:32:57,173 Yes. 1018 01:32:58,200 --> 01:32:59,880 Optimism is an act of will. 1019 01:32:59,880 --> 01:33:04,880 Optimism is what a football team has to hold to the very 1020 01:33:07,200 --> 01:33:10,773 last minute even if it's a goal behind if it wants to win. 1021 01:33:11,610 --> 01:33:15,010 And I think Gramsci once said it's pessimism 1022 01:33:15,010 --> 01:33:17,100 of the intellect, it's optimism of the will 1023 01:33:17,100 --> 01:33:22,100 and this is not just a snappy thing to say, 1024 01:33:22,430 --> 01:33:24,430 it's actually the most constructive thing to say. 1025 01:33:24,430 --> 01:33:27,700 We gain nothing really from pessimism and we 1026 01:33:27,700 --> 01:33:30,786 gain everything from being optimistic about the future. 1027 01:33:30,786 --> 01:33:33,536 (up tempo music)