1 00:00:07,132 --> 00:00:08,634 [narrator] In 1856, 2 00:00:08,717 --> 00:00:12,721 a scientist named Eunice Foote conducted an experiment. 3 00:00:13,347 --> 00:00:15,891 She filled one tube with regular air 4 00:00:15,974 --> 00:00:18,018 and another with carbon dioxide, 5 00:00:18,101 --> 00:00:21,271 put thermometers in them, and placed them in the sun. 6 00:00:21,355 --> 00:00:23,941 And she noticed the tube of carbon dioxide 7 00:00:24,024 --> 00:00:26,568 got a lot hotter and stayed hot longer. 8 00:00:27,486 --> 00:00:29,029 She published her results, 9 00:00:29,112 --> 00:00:31,615 noting that "An atmosphere of that gas 10 00:00:31,698 --> 00:00:34,535 would give to our earth a high temperature." 11 00:00:35,369 --> 00:00:36,620 Three years later, 12 00:00:36,703 --> 00:00:40,499 Edwin Drake struck oil in Western Pennsylvania. 13 00:00:41,625 --> 00:00:44,086 A hundred years after that first well, 14 00:00:44,169 --> 00:00:47,839 the American oil industry celebrated its centennial. 15 00:00:47,923 --> 00:00:50,425 And they invited the physicist Edward Teller, 16 00:00:50,509 --> 00:00:52,636 one of the inventors of the atomic bomb, 17 00:00:52,719 --> 00:00:55,931 to make a speech about the future of energy. 18 00:00:56,014 --> 00:01:00,102 "We probably have to look for additional fuel supplies," he told the crowd. 19 00:01:00,185 --> 00:01:03,313 "Because the extra carbon emitted from burning fossil fuels 20 00:01:03,397 --> 00:01:05,190 causes a greenhouse effect." 21 00:01:05,274 --> 00:01:08,026 Which he believed would be sufficient 22 00:01:08,110 --> 00:01:11,071 to melt the ice cap and submerge New York. 23 00:01:12,197 --> 00:01:15,534 By 1965, scientists were confident enough 24 00:01:15,617 --> 00:01:18,078 to formally warn the US president, 25 00:01:18,161 --> 00:01:19,705 Lyndon B. Johnson. 26 00:01:20,372 --> 00:01:22,916 [narrator] A decade later, Exxon's own scientists 27 00:01:23,000 --> 00:01:25,168 were making grim predictions. 28 00:01:25,252 --> 00:01:27,921 By 1988, it was front-page news. 29 00:01:29,172 --> 00:01:30,549 And since then, 30 00:01:30,632 --> 00:01:34,011 we've kept pumping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere 31 00:01:34,094 --> 00:01:35,762 at an accelerating rate. 32 00:01:35,846 --> 00:01:37,973 We have a world economy today 33 00:01:38,056 --> 00:01:41,310 that depends on fossil fuels for most of its energy. 34 00:01:41,393 --> 00:01:43,228 [narrator] A third of it from oil. 35 00:01:43,312 --> 00:01:46,940 It's a tremendous irony that the very substances 36 00:01:47,024 --> 00:01:50,110 that helped us achieve this level of development today 37 00:01:50,193 --> 00:01:54,489 are now the very substances that endanger the future of civilization as we know it. 38 00:01:55,115 --> 00:01:57,284 [narrator] Governments are starting to agree 39 00:01:57,367 --> 00:02:01,872 that we shouldn't let the world warm more than 1.5 degrees centigrade. 40 00:02:01,955 --> 00:02:04,791 And we're on track to blow past that by 2030. 41 00:02:06,376 --> 00:02:09,171 So why is it so hard to turn off the tap? 42 00:02:10,297 --> 00:02:12,007 And can we do it in time? 43 00:02:13,508 --> 00:02:17,304 [man 1] Industrial nations have developed a great dependency on oil. 44 00:02:17,387 --> 00:02:19,890 [man 2] It has added a new freedom to our lives. 45 00:02:19,973 --> 00:02:22,976 [man 3] The invaluable stocks of oil in these exotic islands. 46 00:02:23,060 --> 00:02:26,938 [man 4] Their wealth is cracking the old life of Arabia wide open. 47 00:02:27,022 --> 00:02:31,360 The Nigerian government love the oil more than our lives. 48 00:02:32,361 --> 00:02:35,781 [man 5] Increasing amounts of carbon dioxide surround us. 49 00:02:35,864 --> 00:02:38,992 If man continues to abuse his environment, 50 00:02:39,076 --> 00:02:41,203 Earth, too, may become barren. 51 00:02:48,418 --> 00:02:51,672 [Yergin] The story of oil is a story of geopolitical clash, 52 00:02:51,755 --> 00:02:54,841 of technological advancement, and intense competition. 53 00:02:56,426 --> 00:02:59,221 [man] The story of oil is a story of inequality. 54 00:02:59,888 --> 00:03:02,224 It's a story of dominance. 55 00:03:02,307 --> 00:03:07,771 The Nigeria in which I was born in was just a couple of years 56 00:03:07,854 --> 00:03:11,983 before the ending of the British colonial rule. 57 00:03:12,067 --> 00:03:15,028 [Hawke] At the time, it was an agricultural economy. 58 00:03:15,112 --> 00:03:16,655 [Bassey] Cotton from the north, 59 00:03:16,738 --> 00:03:19,700 cocoa from the west, and rubber from the midwest. 60 00:03:19,783 --> 00:03:22,911 [Hawke] And in the area where Nnimmo grew up, fishing. 61 00:03:22,994 --> 00:03:25,580 [Bassey] The Niger Delta is an area 62 00:03:25,664 --> 00:03:28,667 that is crisscrossed by water bodies, 63 00:03:28,750 --> 00:03:31,044 creeks, streams, rivers, estuaries, 64 00:03:31,128 --> 00:03:34,506 which is the breeding ground for most fish in the Gulf of Guinea. 65 00:03:34,589 --> 00:03:38,844 [Hawke] It was so fertile, fishermen could just leave their traps at high tide 66 00:03:38,927 --> 00:03:40,637 and pick them up at low tide. 67 00:03:40,721 --> 00:03:42,055 And in the evenings… 68 00:03:42,139 --> 00:03:44,224 [Bassey] Children would sit around in the moonlight, 69 00:03:44,307 --> 00:03:45,934 and the elders would share stories. 70 00:03:46,017 --> 00:03:47,728 [Hawke] They didn't know they were sitting on 71 00:03:47,811 --> 00:03:50,772 one of the most oil-rich regions on Earth. 72 00:03:51,481 --> 00:03:57,404 Until the British granted Shell and BP an exclusive permit to explore for oil. 73 00:03:58,405 --> 00:04:01,867 They struck black gold in 1956. 74 00:04:02,534 --> 00:04:04,661 [Bassey] Nigerians were extremely hopeful 75 00:04:04,745 --> 00:04:07,080 that the discovery of oil  in their communities 76 00:04:07,164 --> 00:04:10,834 would bring about positive changes in the economic well-being, 77 00:04:10,917 --> 00:04:14,796 in the health conditions of the people, in terms of employment and everything. 78 00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:18,341 [Hawke] And just a few years later, Nigeria won independence. 79 00:04:19,217 --> 00:04:20,719 The future looked bright. 80 00:04:23,013 --> 00:04:26,266 After all, fossil fuels had transformed other countries. 81 00:04:27,017 --> 00:04:30,395 The world's wealthiest nations had once been much poorer. 82 00:04:30,479 --> 00:04:33,356 The amount of work a person could do 83 00:04:33,440 --> 00:04:36,193 was the amount they could do with their hands, 84 00:04:36,276 --> 00:04:38,612 possibly helped by a horse or mule. 85 00:04:38,695 --> 00:04:41,990 Coal was the first discovery that changed all that. 86 00:04:42,073 --> 00:04:44,951 [Hawke] Ancient organisms in oceans and swamps 87 00:04:45,035 --> 00:04:47,287 had soaked up the power of the sun. 88 00:04:47,370 --> 00:04:51,374 Their fossils compressed over millions of years into coal. 89 00:04:51,458 --> 00:04:53,335 And, a mile or more down, 90 00:04:53,418 --> 00:04:55,670 into natural gas and crude oil. 91 00:04:56,296 --> 00:05:00,300 Burning coal, this time capsule of the sun's energy, 92 00:05:00,383 --> 00:05:04,304 helped Britain become the first industrialized nation 93 00:05:04,387 --> 00:05:07,349 and the most powerful empire the world had ever seen. 94 00:05:07,891 --> 00:05:09,601 And then oil came along. 95 00:05:09,684 --> 00:05:11,686 [Yergin] And that started off this kind of boom. 96 00:05:13,396 --> 00:05:15,315 It was discovered that gasoline, 97 00:05:15,398 --> 00:05:18,777 which had been kind of this waste product when they refined oil, 98 00:05:18,860 --> 00:05:21,613 was actually a very good fuel for cars. 99 00:05:21,696 --> 00:05:25,367 [Lord Browne] Oil was the most energy-packed 100 00:05:25,450 --> 00:05:29,371 liquid source of power that you could get your hands on. 101 00:05:29,454 --> 00:05:33,124 [Yergin] Right from the beginning, it was very important to the British Navy, 102 00:05:33,208 --> 00:05:37,003 who wanted to have access to British-controlled oil. 103 00:05:37,087 --> 00:05:40,048 It started as a syndicate of private investors, 104 00:05:40,632 --> 00:05:43,260 that went on a journey and an adventure 105 00:05:43,343 --> 00:05:48,390 to find oil in the foothills of the Zagros Mountains in Persia. 106 00:05:48,473 --> 00:05:52,602 That was the start of the Anglo-Persian Oil Company. 107 00:05:52,686 --> 00:05:55,480 [Hawke] Later renamed British Petroleum. 108 00:05:55,564 --> 00:05:57,274 And they were just in time. 109 00:05:59,192 --> 00:06:03,154 [Yergin] The First World War began with cavalry charges and people on horses. 110 00:06:03,864 --> 00:06:05,574 And it ended with airplanes, 111 00:06:05,657 --> 00:06:07,659 with tanks, with trucks. 112 00:06:08,326 --> 00:06:11,913 When the Allied navy switched to using oil instead of coal, 113 00:06:11,997 --> 00:06:15,041 those ships could go further before refueling. 114 00:06:16,543 --> 00:06:19,462 [Hawke] Oil put the world in motion. 115 00:06:20,255 --> 00:06:22,883 [Lord Browne] People were finding  newfound freedom, 116 00:06:22,966 --> 00:06:25,510 driving all over the place, flying all over the place. 117 00:06:25,594 --> 00:06:28,513 It's pulled millions of people out of poverty. 118 00:06:29,097 --> 00:06:31,516 [Yergin] What oil did was really create the modern world. 119 00:06:31,600 --> 00:06:34,311 [Lord Browne] Pipelines were built,  roads were built, 120 00:06:34,394 --> 00:06:37,439 gas stations were built, refineries were built. 121 00:06:37,522 --> 00:06:41,484 Everybody wanted investment in oil and gas. 122 00:06:41,568 --> 00:06:43,528 [Hawke] But the profits were lopsided. 123 00:06:43,612 --> 00:06:46,406 [man] The ocean of crude oil underneath Persia's desert 124 00:06:46,489 --> 00:06:49,200 led the way to the Middle East oil boom. 125 00:06:49,284 --> 00:06:52,996 [Hawke] Iran was making just a fraction of the profits from their own oil, 126 00:06:53,079 --> 00:06:55,373 while the British raked in the rest. 127 00:06:55,457 --> 00:06:58,084 And they decided they were sick of that deal. 128 00:06:58,168 --> 00:07:02,005 [reporter] The long-smoldering Iranian nationalists made clear their intention 129 00:07:02,088 --> 00:07:05,634 to seize the oil industry and expropriate the British company. 130 00:07:06,593 --> 00:07:08,261 [Hawke] So in 1953, 131 00:07:08,345 --> 00:07:11,097 Britain and the US engineered a coup, 132 00:07:11,181 --> 00:07:15,310 overthrowing Iran's democratically elected leader to install the Shah. 133 00:07:15,393 --> 00:07:19,105 [Lord Browne] Because they felt that he was more amenable 134 00:07:19,189 --> 00:07:22,442 to having a great relationship with the West. 135 00:07:22,525 --> 00:07:25,737 [Hawke] Which is how a young Lord Browne ended up there. 136 00:07:25,820 --> 00:07:28,239 I spent many years as a child in Iran 137 00:07:28,323 --> 00:07:31,576 when my father was working in the oil industry. 138 00:07:31,660 --> 00:07:35,538 [Hawke] And when he turned 18, he started working for BP himself. 139 00:07:35,622 --> 00:07:37,791 [Lord Browne] I joined the oil industry 140 00:07:37,874 --> 00:07:40,919 believing it was a place where you could solve problems 141 00:07:41,002 --> 00:07:42,879 that no one had solved before. 142 00:07:42,963 --> 00:07:46,216 How could you use oil to go further and farther? 143 00:07:46,299 --> 00:07:47,592 [Hawke] At the time, 144 00:07:47,676 --> 00:07:51,680 BP was one of seven companies from just three countries 145 00:07:51,763 --> 00:07:55,850 that controlled 85% of the world's oil reserves. 146 00:07:56,810 --> 00:07:58,603 And over in Nigeria, 147 00:07:58,687 --> 00:08:03,358 they quickly learned that oil didn't mean prosperity for everyone. 148 00:08:04,526 --> 00:08:06,027 Under colonial rule, 149 00:08:06,111 --> 00:08:09,656 the British had forced diverse states into a single nation. 150 00:08:10,198 --> 00:08:12,993 And after independence, Nnimmo's home region 151 00:08:13,076 --> 00:08:14,786 announced it was seceding. 152 00:08:15,787 --> 00:08:18,081 As a young child, I did not fully understand 153 00:08:18,748 --> 00:08:20,375 what was at stake. 154 00:08:20,458 --> 00:08:22,377 To me, the most exciting thing was 155 00:08:22,460 --> 00:08:24,879 there was going to be a new nation called Biafra. 156 00:08:25,588 --> 00:08:28,967 [Hawke] But this region encompassed most of the Niger Delta 157 00:08:29,050 --> 00:08:30,635 and its oil reserves. 158 00:08:30,719 --> 00:08:33,221 So when the Nigerian government declared war, 159 00:08:33,304 --> 00:08:35,515 the British gave their support. 160 00:08:35,598 --> 00:08:37,642 My village was more or less a war front. 161 00:08:38,268 --> 00:08:40,562 [Hawke] The government blockaded the region. 162 00:08:40,645 --> 00:08:43,857 It's estimated that more than a million civilians 163 00:08:43,940 --> 00:08:45,608 died of starvation. 164 00:08:45,692 --> 00:08:48,445 I still hear voices in my head sometimes 165 00:08:48,528 --> 00:08:51,197 of people asking for help, crying for food. 166 00:08:51,281 --> 00:08:53,825 It's not something you forget in a hurry. 167 00:08:54,451 --> 00:08:56,786 [Hawke] Biafra surrendered in 1970. 168 00:08:58,246 --> 00:09:00,957 The next year, Nigeria joined OPEC, 169 00:09:01,041 --> 00:09:03,334 an alliance of oil-producing nations 170 00:09:03,418 --> 00:09:06,755 that wanted to take back control of their resources. 171 00:09:07,338 --> 00:09:10,008 And in the '70s, they wielded their power, 172 00:09:10,091 --> 00:09:11,676 raising oil prices, 173 00:09:11,760 --> 00:09:15,346 with some countries boycotting the US for their military support of Israel. 174 00:09:15,430 --> 00:09:17,432 Suddenly, it turned into a crisis 175 00:09:17,515 --> 00:09:19,934 and a shock to the political order. 176 00:09:20,018 --> 00:09:22,270 [reporter] Gasoline stations ran dry. 177 00:09:22,353 --> 00:09:24,481 Airlines cut back flight schedules. 178 00:09:24,564 --> 00:09:26,816 Factories were forced to close. 179 00:09:26,900 --> 00:09:30,737 [Hawke] And in 1979, when the Iranians overthrew the Shah 180 00:09:30,820 --> 00:09:33,239 and took back control of their oil, 181 00:09:33,323 --> 00:09:35,700 prices went through the roof again. 182 00:09:35,784 --> 00:09:38,203 And while that was bad for oil consumers… 183 00:09:38,286 --> 00:09:41,790 It's ridiculous. You just don't know where it's gonna stop. 184 00:09:42,373 --> 00:09:44,542 [Hawke] …it was great for oil producers. 185 00:09:44,626 --> 00:09:47,921 Nigeria became one of the wealthiest countries in Africa. 186 00:09:48,505 --> 00:09:50,507 But after that '70s boom, 187 00:09:50,590 --> 00:09:52,217 oil prices crashed 188 00:09:52,300 --> 00:09:54,135 and so did Nigeria's economy. 189 00:09:55,345 --> 00:09:57,597 [Gross] The idea of the resource curse 190 00:09:57,680 --> 00:10:01,935 is that countries don't necessarily do better 191 00:10:02,018 --> 00:10:04,813 just because they have an abundance of natural resources. 192 00:10:04,896 --> 00:10:08,233 It can throw off the currency valuation, 193 00:10:08,316 --> 00:10:11,069 make other industries less competitive. 194 00:10:11,152 --> 00:10:14,239 [Hawke] And cause economic turmoil and corruption. 195 00:10:14,322 --> 00:10:16,825 The problem is not the resource. 196 00:10:16,908 --> 00:10:19,244 The problem is how the resource is exploited. 197 00:10:19,327 --> 00:10:22,330 It's one thing for a country to get oil revenues. 198 00:10:22,413 --> 00:10:25,250 It's another who gets the money, and where does it go. 199 00:10:25,333 --> 00:10:29,838 [Bassey] A large chunk of that has been taken off by transnational corporations. 200 00:10:29,921 --> 00:10:31,506 [Hawke] And the money that stays 201 00:10:31,589 --> 00:10:34,634 goes to the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, 202 00:10:34,717 --> 00:10:36,636 which is owned by the government 203 00:10:36,719 --> 00:10:40,682 and is also in charge of regulating the country's oil industry. 204 00:10:40,765 --> 00:10:43,434 So you have an operator who is also a regulator. 205 00:10:43,518 --> 00:10:47,814 [Hawke] And since independence, billions have disappeared. 206 00:10:49,607 --> 00:10:51,151 That level of corruption, 207 00:10:51,234 --> 00:10:54,112 it corrupts not just people economically. 208 00:10:54,195 --> 00:10:56,114 It corrupts the political system. 209 00:10:56,781 --> 00:10:58,741 [Hawke] And there were other costs. 210 00:10:59,659 --> 00:11:02,620 In the Niger Delta, over 50 years of spillage 211 00:11:02,704 --> 00:11:07,125 has created 27,000 miles of toxic oil swamps. 212 00:11:07,834 --> 00:11:11,087 [Bassey] Kids are swimming in water covered in crude oil. 213 00:11:11,171 --> 00:11:14,215 Life expectancy is at 41 years, 214 00:11:14,299 --> 00:11:16,134 maybe one of the lowest in the entire world. 215 00:11:16,885 --> 00:11:21,055 [Hawke] Fishermen can no longer just leave their traps at high tide. 216 00:11:21,139 --> 00:11:23,766 You have the fisher folks who go into the rivers 217 00:11:23,850 --> 00:11:26,769 and toil all day and all night, and catch nothing. 218 00:11:26,853 --> 00:11:29,147 [Hawke] And no more moonlit nights. 219 00:11:29,230 --> 00:11:31,858 [Bassey] The gas flares set up by the oil corporations 220 00:11:31,941 --> 00:11:34,944 burn 24 hours, every day. 221 00:11:35,028 --> 00:11:36,905 [Hawke] And on top of all that, 222 00:11:36,988 --> 00:11:39,866 Nigeria is a hot, dry country, 223 00:11:39,949 --> 00:11:43,661 which means it's more sensitive to rising temperatures. 224 00:11:44,829 --> 00:11:48,416 And as of 2020, the global average temperature 225 00:11:48,499 --> 00:11:51,336 has increased by more than one degree centigrade. 226 00:11:52,045 --> 00:11:55,632 [Hayhoe] Heat waves are getting stronger, more frequent, and more deadly. 227 00:11:55,715 --> 00:11:58,927 It is powering hurricanes that intensify more quickly. 228 00:11:59,010 --> 00:12:02,180 Wildfires are burning much greater area. 229 00:12:02,972 --> 00:12:04,432 Climate change is not responding 230 00:12:04,515 --> 00:12:07,101 to our annual emissions, what we're putting out this year, 231 00:12:07,185 --> 00:12:09,729 it's responding to our cumulative emissions. 232 00:12:09,812 --> 00:12:12,482 [Gross] So, the rich countries caused the problems. 233 00:12:12,565 --> 00:12:16,402 We're the ones who put out all these carbon emissions over all these years. 234 00:12:16,486 --> 00:12:20,448 [Hawke] But developing countries are facing the brunt of the cost. 235 00:12:21,032 --> 00:12:24,702 It's already pushed millions of people to flee their homes. 236 00:12:24,786 --> 00:12:28,498 [Bassey] The clock is ticking, and we can wonder whether there's any hope 237 00:12:28,581 --> 00:12:30,166 that we can pull this off 238 00:12:30,250 --> 00:12:32,669 or whether we've come to the precipice as the human race. 239 00:12:33,336 --> 00:12:35,922 [Hayhoe] What's at risk? Not the planet. It will survive. 240 00:12:36,631 --> 00:12:37,924 What's at risk is us. 241 00:12:38,841 --> 00:12:41,678 [Hawke] The world emits around 50 billion tons 242 00:12:41,761 --> 00:12:43,763 of greenhouse gases a year, 243 00:12:43,846 --> 00:12:45,390 more than it ever has. 244 00:12:45,473 --> 00:12:50,812 And governments agree we need to get to net zero by 2050. 245 00:12:50,895 --> 00:12:52,730 And achieve carbon neutrality. 246 00:12:52,814 --> 00:12:55,358 We're gonna move to net zero in a transition… 247 00:12:55,441 --> 00:12:57,277 …a strong aspiration to reach net zero. 248 00:12:57,360 --> 00:12:59,320 …significantly reducing emissions. 249 00:12:59,404 --> 00:13:01,406 …legislation for net zero. 250 00:13:01,489 --> 00:13:05,118 Nigeria has rolled out institutional frameworks 251 00:13:05,201 --> 00:13:07,745 to cut emission by 20%. 252 00:13:07,829 --> 00:13:10,540 This issue is not like the coronavirus, 253 00:13:10,623 --> 00:13:15,211 where you need one vaccine to deal with one virus and its variants. 254 00:13:15,295 --> 00:13:19,215 This is a very broad issue that needs lots of solutions. 255 00:13:19,299 --> 00:13:24,095 And it's gonna require a lot of technology that really hasn't been developed yet. 256 00:13:24,178 --> 00:13:26,806 [Hawke] But there have been dramatic changes. 257 00:13:26,889 --> 00:13:31,102 Wind and solar power are now cheaper than coal in a lot of countries. 258 00:13:31,185 --> 00:13:33,813 Battery technology is improving rapidly. 259 00:13:33,896 --> 00:13:37,400 Governments are investing in more hydropower and nuclear plants. 260 00:13:37,483 --> 00:13:40,361 Electric cars are getting cheaper every year. 261 00:13:40,445 --> 00:13:42,322 And for long-haul ships and planes, 262 00:13:42,405 --> 00:13:45,575 engineers are working on biofuels and liquid hydrogen. 263 00:13:45,658 --> 00:13:49,495 And people are working on solutions for every piece of this pie. 264 00:13:49,579 --> 00:13:53,249 And the current goal isn't to get to zero carbon emissions. 265 00:13:53,333 --> 00:13:58,004 People are targeting net zero. Net zero. 266 00:13:58,087 --> 00:14:01,924 They're saying, "We will produce carbon, but we will offset it." 267 00:14:02,008 --> 00:14:04,260 [Hawke] By restoring forests, wetlands. 268 00:14:04,344 --> 00:14:06,346 [Lord Browne] Techniques in the ocean. 269 00:14:06,429 --> 00:14:08,765 [Hawke] Which can help soak up more carbon. 270 00:14:08,848 --> 00:14:10,933 Or carbon capture technology, 271 00:14:11,017 --> 00:14:12,560 which is still expensive. 272 00:14:13,603 --> 00:14:16,105 That's an issue with a lot of these solutions. 273 00:14:16,773 --> 00:14:19,859 So, many governments are trying to tip the balance. 274 00:14:19,942 --> 00:14:23,279 More than 40 countries have a price on carbon 275 00:14:23,363 --> 00:14:26,115 to make burning fossil fuels more costly. 276 00:14:26,199 --> 00:14:29,619 And over the past decade, the US has been moving from coal 277 00:14:29,702 --> 00:14:32,663 to natural gas, the result of fracking. 278 00:14:33,247 --> 00:14:37,043 The US went from being the world's largest importer of oil 279 00:14:37,126 --> 00:14:39,921 to the world's largest producer of oil. 280 00:14:40,004 --> 00:14:42,924 [Hawke] And the natural gas plants the US has been building 281 00:14:43,007 --> 00:14:46,594 are major investments in a fossil fuel future. 282 00:14:46,677 --> 00:14:50,098 But it's helped the country significantly reduce emissions. 283 00:14:50,181 --> 00:14:52,809 And emissions are dropping in Europe, too, 284 00:14:52,892 --> 00:14:55,019 but global emissions are not. 285 00:14:55,103 --> 00:14:57,980 [Gross] When you look at where emissions are growing right now, 286 00:14:58,064 --> 00:15:01,234 all of that is happening in the developing world. 287 00:15:01,317 --> 00:15:05,446 Even if the United States and Europe all work together to fix the problem, 288 00:15:05,530 --> 00:15:09,200 we're still not there unless we bring the developing world along, 289 00:15:09,283 --> 00:15:11,994 because that's where the emissions of the future are. 290 00:15:12,078 --> 00:15:17,834 Without keeping emissions down in the developing world, we'll all fry. 291 00:15:17,917 --> 00:15:20,002 As a Nigerian and as an African, 292 00:15:20,086 --> 00:15:23,923 it's very, very tough to see people living in extreme poverty 293 00:15:24,006 --> 00:15:26,884 and tell them, you know, "Let's wait a few years 294 00:15:26,968 --> 00:15:30,054 till we get the best possible solution to get you out of that." 295 00:15:30,638 --> 00:15:32,598 The average young person in Africa 296 00:15:32,682 --> 00:15:36,561 wants to have the same amount of energy as the average young person in America. 297 00:15:36,644 --> 00:15:38,563 They want to have the same type of opportunities. 298 00:15:38,646 --> 00:15:41,023 And energy is that golden thread 299 00:15:41,107 --> 00:15:44,026 that hinders people to reach their full potential. 300 00:15:44,610 --> 00:15:47,530 [Hawke] While Nigeria's land is energy-rich… 301 00:15:47,613 --> 00:15:51,451 It's the country that has the largest energy access deficit in the world. 302 00:15:51,534 --> 00:15:55,037 [Hawke] In a country of around 200 million people, 303 00:15:55,121 --> 00:15:58,374 almost half don't have access to electricity. 304 00:15:58,458 --> 00:15:59,542 And for those who do… 305 00:16:00,168 --> 00:16:02,962 [Bassey] Every day at nine o'clock in the morning, 306 00:16:03,045 --> 00:16:05,798 public power supply goes off where I live. 307 00:16:05,882 --> 00:16:07,842 It comes back at 2:00 p.m. 308 00:16:07,925 --> 00:16:11,095 and then it goes off again at 8:00 p.m. 309 00:16:11,179 --> 00:16:12,597 [Hawke] So most businesses 310 00:16:12,680 --> 00:16:16,142 rely on diesel-powered generators to keep the lights on. 311 00:16:16,225 --> 00:16:20,354 There's 800 million around the world that do not have access to energy. 312 00:16:20,438 --> 00:16:24,567 And to have enough energy to live a full and dignified life. 313 00:16:24,650 --> 00:16:26,319 It's not an inconvenience. 314 00:16:26,402 --> 00:16:30,698 It's the difference between life and death for a lot of people. 315 00:16:32,116 --> 00:16:33,993 [Hayhoe] They need to be able to develop, 316 00:16:34,076 --> 00:16:36,162 to have electricity and infrastructure like we do. 317 00:16:36,245 --> 00:16:38,748 But today, we know there's better ways to do that 318 00:16:38,831 --> 00:16:40,833 than the ways we did it 200 or 300 years ago. 319 00:16:40,917 --> 00:16:42,627 So you hear about leapfrogging, 320 00:16:42,710 --> 00:16:46,422 that developing countries can just jump over the technologies 321 00:16:46,506 --> 00:16:48,883 that the wealthy world used to get wealthy. 322 00:16:48,966 --> 00:16:51,719 Instead, they'll develop based on renewables. 323 00:16:51,802 --> 00:16:55,056 [Ogunbiyi] There's a bit of a hypocrisy with the developed countries 324 00:16:55,139 --> 00:17:00,019 asking countries that currently do not have that much money 325 00:17:00,102 --> 00:17:04,690 to leapfrog and transition out of something that they're still doing. 326 00:17:05,441 --> 00:17:07,777 Let's say I have an auntie in Lagos Island, 327 00:17:07,860 --> 00:17:09,737 and she takes a public bus 328 00:17:09,820 --> 00:17:12,698 from her home to her business every single day. 329 00:17:12,782 --> 00:17:16,577 She's been saving up money to buy a little two-door car, 330 00:17:16,661 --> 00:17:18,871 which probably runs on diesel or petrol. 331 00:17:18,955 --> 00:17:21,999 She says, "I don't have any money to buy the electric car." 332 00:17:22,083 --> 00:17:26,087 And you say, "No, you have to continue on the bus till you get the electric car." 333 00:17:26,170 --> 00:17:29,465 That is what energy transition looks like now in Africa. 334 00:17:30,007 --> 00:17:34,512 Before you can tell the developing world "Don't use fossil, don't use coal," 335 00:17:34,595 --> 00:17:36,889 you have to have financing behind that. 336 00:17:37,723 --> 00:17:40,226 [Hawke] For Africa to actually transition, 337 00:17:40,309 --> 00:17:44,438 experts say it would take an investment of 70 billion every year. 338 00:17:45,022 --> 00:17:47,733 [Bassey] The global north should pay a climate debt 339 00:17:47,817 --> 00:17:51,612 for the exploitation that has gone on for so many years. 340 00:17:52,280 --> 00:17:56,784 Those who created the problem have a duty to invest in making this happen. 341 00:17:57,952 --> 00:18:02,248 [Hawke] And when global leaders met in Paris in 2015, they agreed. 342 00:18:02,832 --> 00:18:04,875 The landmark Paris climate accord 343 00:18:04,959 --> 00:18:08,129 included something called the Green Climate Fund, 344 00:18:08,212 --> 00:18:12,675 a way for wealthy countries to help developing nations transition. 345 00:18:12,758 --> 00:18:16,679 They pledged to give 100 billion a year by 2020. 346 00:18:16,762 --> 00:18:18,848 And we are nowhere near getting that. 347 00:18:19,432 --> 00:18:22,435 [Hawke] They've fallen short by 90 billion. 348 00:18:23,144 --> 00:18:25,563 Some wealthier countries are investing billions 349 00:18:25,646 --> 00:18:28,274 in clean energy projects across Africa, 350 00:18:28,357 --> 00:18:31,736 but they're investing even more in fossil fuels. 351 00:18:32,320 --> 00:18:33,613 In 2020, 352 00:18:33,696 --> 00:18:37,491 Britain's prime minister addressed a UK-Africa summit. 353 00:18:37,575 --> 00:18:41,203 There's no point in the UK reducing the amount of coal we burn, 354 00:18:41,287 --> 00:18:43,414 if we then trundle over to Africa 355 00:18:43,497 --> 00:18:45,750 and line our pockets 356 00:18:45,833 --> 00:18:50,379 by encouraging African states to use more of it, is there? 357 00:18:50,463 --> 00:18:53,591 [Hawke] But days later, it came out that 90% of the energy deals 358 00:18:53,674 --> 00:18:55,593 that Britain had made that week 359 00:18:55,676 --> 00:18:57,595 were in fossil fuel projects. 360 00:18:58,220 --> 00:18:59,430 And the pattern continues. 361 00:19:00,014 --> 00:19:04,185 [Gross] China has made wind and solar technologies much cheaper, 362 00:19:04,268 --> 00:19:06,896 but they're also still investing in coal plants. 363 00:19:06,979 --> 00:19:09,607 [Hawke] And recently, the US has invested nine billion 364 00:19:09,690 --> 00:19:11,734 in fossil fuels around the world, 365 00:19:11,817 --> 00:19:14,195 most in sub-Saharan Africa. 366 00:19:14,278 --> 00:19:17,990 While the streets of wealthy countries are getting cleaner, 367 00:19:18,074 --> 00:19:20,951 with cars that are more fuel-efficient or electric, 368 00:19:21,035 --> 00:19:23,537 a lot of these old fuel-guzzling models 369 00:19:23,621 --> 00:19:26,207 aren't vanishing from the face of the earth. 370 00:19:26,290 --> 00:19:29,251 They're exported to countries like Nigeria, 371 00:19:29,335 --> 00:19:32,713 because they're the only kinds of cars most people there can afford. 372 00:19:32,797 --> 00:19:35,675 Africa is basically seen as a dumping ground for technologies. 373 00:19:35,758 --> 00:19:39,261 [Hawke] And though Nigeria is the largest oil producer on the continent, 374 00:19:39,345 --> 00:19:42,890 the few refineries they have are closed or dysfunctional. 375 00:19:42,973 --> 00:19:46,227 So they export their crude oil around the world 376 00:19:46,310 --> 00:19:50,231 and import most of their fuel from the Netherlands and Belgium. 377 00:19:50,815 --> 00:19:52,983 But it's not the same stuff that they burn. 378 00:19:53,067 --> 00:19:57,029 Investigators found that diesel samples contained sulfur levels 379 00:19:57,113 --> 00:20:01,742 204 times what's allowed under European fuel standards. 380 00:20:02,785 --> 00:20:05,746 [Bassey] There's a lot being invested in destruction in the world today. 381 00:20:06,247 --> 00:20:10,710 The challenge the world faces now is to move from a system of inequality 382 00:20:11,210 --> 00:20:14,672 to a system that is more just and more fair. 383 00:20:15,756 --> 00:20:20,553 [Lord Browne] I certainly feel ownership of both the benefits of oil and gas, 384 00:20:20,636 --> 00:20:23,681 and the issues, including climate change. 385 00:20:23,764 --> 00:20:25,099 [Hawke] Back in 1997, 386 00:20:25,182 --> 00:20:29,562 Lord Browne made a speech that shocked the oil industry. 387 00:20:29,645 --> 00:20:33,357 There is a discernible human influence on the climate. 388 00:20:33,441 --> 00:20:35,651 The oil world reacted badly 389 00:20:35,735 --> 00:20:39,613 and declared that I had, quote, "left the church." 390 00:20:40,114 --> 00:20:42,158 [Hawke] But now the world's oil giants 391 00:20:42,241 --> 00:20:45,619 are also acknowledging we need to get to net zero. 392 00:20:45,703 --> 00:20:47,955 [Gross] They see which way the political winds are blowing 393 00:20:48,038 --> 00:20:49,123 and they're going with them. 394 00:20:49,707 --> 00:20:52,126 [Lord Browne] They must contribute to the solution, 395 00:20:52,209 --> 00:20:56,338 not just hope that the word "sorry" can get you out of the penalty box. 396 00:20:56,422 --> 00:20:58,299 Most companies have a choice to make. 397 00:20:58,883 --> 00:21:02,970 [Hawke] But overall, these oil companies have chosen oil. 398 00:21:03,053 --> 00:21:07,516 Renewables make up less than 1% of their investments. 399 00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:10,311 One report estimates that in 2030, 400 00:21:10,394 --> 00:21:12,480 most of the world's oil giants 401 00:21:12,563 --> 00:21:14,440 will actually be producing 402 00:21:14,523 --> 00:21:16,525 more oil then they do today. 403 00:21:17,443 --> 00:21:20,821 And while private companies once ruled the oil world, 404 00:21:20,905 --> 00:21:24,617 government-owned ones now produce half the world's oil and gas, 405 00:21:24,700 --> 00:21:27,995 and many of their economies are largely dependent on them. 406 00:21:28,496 --> 00:21:31,832 [Gross] Countries that are very economically dependent on oil 407 00:21:31,916 --> 00:21:33,459 face a real challenge. 408 00:21:33,542 --> 00:21:36,378 Their production tends to be cheaper than anybody else's, 409 00:21:36,962 --> 00:21:39,089 so they'll probably be the last people, 410 00:21:39,173 --> 00:21:42,301 as it were, to turn out the lights on this industry. 411 00:21:44,136 --> 00:21:47,389 [Yergin] The 88-trillion-dollar world economy 412 00:21:47,473 --> 00:21:49,600 has been based on an energy system 413 00:21:49,683 --> 00:21:52,269 in which oil has a preeminent role. 414 00:21:52,853 --> 00:21:56,607 Other energy transitions took centuries. This is meant to happen in 30 years. 415 00:21:56,690 --> 00:21:59,860 [Lord Browne] I expect oil will be around for quite a long time, 416 00:22:00,361 --> 00:22:04,990 but it will be used by people who have no option but to use oil. 417 00:22:05,074 --> 00:22:07,368 Rich countries who are historically responsible 418 00:22:07,451 --> 00:22:09,620 for the greatest proportion of carbon emissions, 419 00:22:09,703 --> 00:22:13,082 they have the greatest responsibility to act first and most. 420 00:22:13,165 --> 00:22:15,167 [Gross] So, there's this issue of fairness, 421 00:22:15,251 --> 00:22:18,671 and in a sense, everyone is right here, but it doesn't really matter. 422 00:22:18,754 --> 00:22:22,800 We all need to work on this together, whether or not it's fair in any sense. 423 00:22:23,467 --> 00:22:26,637 [Ogunbiyi] Developing countries are saying, "We want to be part of this." 424 00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:29,557 "We want to transition, but we really need the help." 425 00:22:30,516 --> 00:22:32,685 We cannot achieve our climate goals 426 00:22:32,768 --> 00:22:35,312 if we don't achieve universal access for everybody. 427 00:22:35,396 --> 00:22:37,565 The story of energy, climate change, 428 00:22:37,648 --> 00:22:39,650 and development have to be one of the same. 429 00:22:40,484 --> 00:22:43,571 [Yergin] Thirty years from now, the world will look different. 430 00:22:43,654 --> 00:22:46,907 How much it will change and how different it will look, 431 00:22:46,991 --> 00:22:48,617 that's still very hard to see. 432 00:22:49,952 --> 00:22:54,123 Sometimes it's difficult to dream about the future and the way to get there. 433 00:22:54,665 --> 00:22:57,042 But a new system is possible. 434 00:22:58,127 --> 00:22:59,795 And that is where my hope is. 435 00:23:02,256 --> 00:23:06,010 [closing theme music playing]