1 00:00:12,145 --> 00:00:15,849 >>> OCTOBER '62, THE NATION         SETTLES DOWN TO A WEEKEND OF 2 00:00:15,949 --> 00:00:21,154 FOOTBALL AND TOM FOOLERY.           BEHIND THE SCENES, A MAJOR 3 00:00:21,254 --> 00:00:25,025 CRISIS IS DEVELOPING.               AERIAL SURVEILLANCE OVER CUBA, 4 00:00:25,125 --> 00:00:29,462 SHOWS RUSSIAN BOMBERS CAPABLE OF   CARRYING NUCLEAR WEAPONS. 5 00:00:29,562 --> 00:00:34,401 ALL OF THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE       WAS WITHIN THEIR RANGE. 6 00:00:34,501 --> 00:00:37,804 SUDDENLY, MILLIONS OF AMERICANS     ARE ASKING, HOW CAN I MAKE MY 7 00:00:37,904 --> 00:00:39,005 FAMILY SAFE? 8 00:00:39,239 --> 00:00:44,177 >> WE MUST ALL GET READY NOW SO     WE KNOW HOW TO SAVE OURSELVES IF 9 00:00:44,277 --> 00:00:47,714 THE ATOMIC BOMB EVER EXPLODES       NEAR US. 10 00:00:47,814 --> 00:00:49,249 [ SIRENS ] 11 00:00:49,349 --> 00:00:53,253 >> THAT SIGNAL MEANS DUCK AND       COVER FAST, WHEREVER YOU ARE. 12 00:00:53,353 --> 00:00:57,090 >> I CALL UPON CHAIRMAN             KHRUSHCHEV. 13 00:00:57,190 --> 00:01:00,259 HE HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO MOVE       THE WORLD BACK FROM THE ABYSS OF 14 00:01:00,360 --> 00:01:01,561 DESTRUCTION. 15 00:01:01,661 --> 00:01:13,006 >> PRESIDENT KENNEDY ADDED THAT     FURTHER ACTION MAY BE JUSTIFIED. 16 00:01:14,874 --> 00:01:18,912 >> WITHDRAWING UNDER PRESSURE. 17 00:01:19,012 --> 00:01:22,247 >> WE'LL NEVER START A WAR.         WE MUST LABOR ON NOT TOWARDS A 18 00:01:22,348 --> 00:01:30,156 STRATEGY OF ANNIHILATION BUT        TOWARDS A STRATEGY OF PEACE. 19 00:01:33,993 --> 00:01:36,262 >> RUSSIAN PRESIDENT VLADIMIR       PUTIN RAISED ALARMS WHEN HE PUT 20 00:01:36,362 --> 00:01:38,597 RUSSIA'S NUCLEAR WEAPONS ON HIGH   ALERT. 21 00:01:38,698 --> 00:01:44,671 >> WE SHOULD BE VERY CONCERNED      AND VERY VIGILANT. 22 00:01:44,771 --> 00:01:50,677 >> THE OLD SOVIET UNION USED TO     THREATEN THE USE OF NUCLEAR 23 00:01:50,777 --> 00:01:54,881 WEAPONS.                            BUT VLADIMIR PUTIN IS A CRAZY 24 00:01:54,981 --> 00:01:55,782 MAN. 25 00:01:55,982 --> 00:02:00,420 >> HE'S SABER-RATTLING WITH         NUCLEAR WEAPONS. 26 00:02:00,520 --> 00:02:15,034 >> HOW BAD DOES THIS GET?           [ SPEAKING FOREIGN LANGUAGE ] 27 00:03:02,415 --> 00:03:02,882 >>> DO YOU FEEL OUTNUMBERED? 28 00:03:02,982 --> 00:03:04,450 >> NO. 29 00:03:04,551 --> 00:03:06,319 >> THERE'S SO MUCH ESTROGEN AT      THIS TABLE. 30 00:03:06,419 --> 00:03:08,154 >> I FEEL IT. 31 00:03:08,254 --> 00:03:08,721 >> IT'S BEAUTIFUL. 32 00:03:08,821 --> 00:03:10,423 >> I TOTALLY FEEL IT. 33 00:03:10,523 --> 00:03:12,392 >> SO MARK McKINNON, THE            SPIRITUAL CENTER OF THIS 34 00:03:12,492 --> 00:03:13,426 PROGRAM. 35 00:03:13,525 --> 00:03:14,494 >> AND MORAL CENTER. 36 00:03:14,594 --> 00:03:16,095 >> HAS TESTED POSITIVE FOR          COVID. 37 00:03:16,196 --> 00:03:21,367 OUR FIRST CONCERN IS HIS HEALTH. 38 00:03:21,467 --> 00:03:24,671 >> OH, HE'S GOING TO FINE.          HE'S STRONG LIKE THE LION. 39 00:03:24,771 --> 00:03:26,339 THIS                                IS THE FIRST EPISODE HE'S 40 00:03:26,439 --> 00:03:30,577 MISSED.                             OVER SEVEN YEARS, NEVER MISSED 41 00:03:30,677 --> 00:03:32,812 AN EPISODE.                         IT WON'T BE THE SAME WITHOUT 42 00:03:32,912 --> 00:03:35,548 MARK AND CAT McKINNON. 43 00:03:35,648 --> 00:03:38,251 >> LOVE YOU, SEE YOU NEXT           WEEKEND, CAT. 44 00:03:38,351 --> 00:03:40,587 >> WE'RE IN WEEK FOUR OF THE        WAR. 45 00:03:40,687 --> 00:03:42,989 IT'S ALMOST A MONTH.                THE STATE OF THE WAR IS KIND OF 46 00:03:43,089 --> 00:03:43,790 FUCKED. 47 00:03:44,323 --> 00:03:45,491 >> BECAUSE WE'RE IN A STALEMATE,   WHICH MEANS EVERYTHING AND 48 00:03:45,592 --> 00:03:48,227 NOTHING AT THE SAME TIME.           IT'S BLOODIER, DARKER, IT'S LIKE 49 00:03:48,328 --> 00:03:55,034 WORLD WAR I, RIGHT?                 LIKE THIS KIND OF TRENCH WARFARE 50 00:03:55,134 --> 00:03:56,236 WHERE NO SIDE MAKES ANY             PARTICULAR GAINS AND AT THE SAME 51 00:03:56,336 --> 00:03:59,272 TIME, THE CASUALTY RATE             CONTINUES TO SKYROCKET. 52 00:03:59,372 --> 00:04:02,976 >> IT'S NOT LIKE ALL THE            MILITARY ANALYSTS WHO LOOK AT 53 00:04:03,076 --> 00:04:08,214 LIKE WHAT PUTIN WAS TRYING TO       DO, WHICH WAS A SHOCK AND AWE 54 00:04:08,314 --> 00:04:12,719 CAMPAIGN.                           COME IN, VERY QUICKLY, TAKE 55 00:04:12,819 --> 00:04:16,256 KYIV, TAKE KHARKIV, INSTALL A       PUPPET GOVERNMENT QUICKLY, BOOM, 56 00:04:16,356 --> 00:04:19,092 BOOM, BOOM, IN AND OUT.             THAT DIDN'T HAPPEN. 57 00:04:19,192 --> 00:04:20,660 PUTIN IS DESPERATE. 58 00:04:20,760 --> 00:04:23,896 >> WE HAVE TO CONTEMPLATE WHAT      IT MEANS FOR PUTIN TO COME UP 59 00:04:23,997 --> 00:04:25,598 WITH A PLAN "B." 60 00:04:25,698 --> 00:04:27,300 >> HE HAS THOUSANDS OF NUCLEAR      WEAPONS. 61 00:04:27,400 --> 00:04:32,138 IT'S ALWAYS BEEN THERE.             PUTIN KIND OF ANNOUNCES WHAT 62 00:04:32,238 --> 00:04:33,306 HE'S OPEN TO. 63 00:04:33,406 --> 00:04:36,876 >> HE PUTS HIS NUCLEAR FORCES ON   SPECIAL COMBAT DUTY. 64 00:04:36,976 --> 00:04:46,386 THIS IS A GUY NOT EXACTLY BEING     SHY ABOUT HIS POTENTIAL 65 00:04:46,486 --> 00:04:46,819 INTENTIONS. 66 00:04:46,919 --> 00:04:47,620 >> THE SMARTED 67 00:04:48,054 --> 00:04:49,188 >> THE SMART THING NOW IS TO        TAKE EVERYTHING HE SAYS 68 00:04:49,289 --> 00:04:49,856 SERIOUSLY. 69 00:04:50,556 --> 00:04:55,161 >> HYPERSONIC MISSILES, THE         UNITED STATES WILL READILY ADMIT 70 00:04:55,261 --> 00:04:58,097 TO YOU THEY DO NOT HAVE THE         ABILITY TO THAT DOWN AND THEY 71 00:04:58,197 --> 00:05:01,000 CAN BE ARMED WITH NUCLEAR           WEAPONS. 72 00:05:01,100 --> 00:05:05,438 >> PEOPLE AROUND THE WORLD SAY      THAT'S A NUCLEAR FLEX. 73 00:05:05,538 --> 00:05:08,908 IT'S NOT THAT HE'S GOING TO         LAUNCH A MISSILE AT NEW YORK OR 74 00:05:09,008 --> 00:05:10,977 LONDON.                             HE KNOWS THAT ENDS IN A GIANT 75 00:05:11,077 --> 00:05:14,681 BALL OF FIRE.                       BUT IT'S NOT TOTALLY CLEAR, IF 76 00:05:14,781 --> 00:05:19,052 HE DECIDES TO NUKE KHARKIV, NATO   HAS NO OBLIGATION TO DO 77 00:05:19,152 --> 00:05:22,288 ANYTHING.                           WOULD THE U.S. ESCALATE OR NOT? 78 00:05:22,388 --> 00:05:25,491 >> WE'RE TALKING ABOUT TACTICAL     NUCLEAR WEAPONS THAT HAVE THE 79 00:05:25,591 --> 00:05:29,195 FRACTION OF THE DAMAGE OF THE       BOMBS DROPPED ON HIROSHIMA AND 80 00:05:29,295 --> 00:05:31,831 NAGASAKI BUT AT THE SAME TIME       PROVIDE THE SORT OF RAMPING-UP 81 00:05:31,931 --> 00:05:35,468 THAT EVERYTHING IS TERRIFIED OF     IN THIS INVASION. 82 00:05:35,568 --> 00:05:39,472 >> IT IS SO UNLIKELY THE MAN IS     GOING TO USE NUCLEAR WEAPONS. 83 00:05:39,572 --> 00:05:43,076 BUT IT'S NOT ZERO CHANCE THAT       HE'S GOING TO USE THEM IN THESE 84 00:05:43,176 --> 00:05:46,679 CIRCUMSTANCES.                      PEOPLE KNOW PUTIN, HAVE STUDIED 85 00:05:46,779 --> 00:05:50,383 PUTIN, HAVE WATCHED PUTIN, WITH     CREDIBILITY, ARE ALL ON THE SAME 86 00:05:50,483 --> 00:05:56,356 PAGE.                               NOT THAT HE'S NOT GOING TO USE 87 00:05:56,456 --> 00:06:00,226 NUCLEAR WEAPONS BUT PLEASE DO       NOT ASSUME HE'S NOT GOING TO USE 88 00:06:00,326 --> 00:06:01,461 NUCLEAR WEAPONS. 89 00:06:01,561 --> 00:06:04,230 >> THAT'S WHY HE MARCHED INTO       UKRAINE BECAUSE HE HAD THAT 90 00:06:04,330 --> 00:06:06,933 THREAT HANGING OVER EVERYONE. 91 00:06:07,033 --> 00:06:10,002 >> PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN IS GOING     TO FLY TO BRUSSELS. 92 00:06:10,103 --> 00:06:12,572 >> NATO IS AT THE CENTER OF THE     UNIVERSITY REINCE. 93 00:06:12,672 --> 00:06:14,640 JOE BIDEN IS GOING THERE AND        GOING TO POLAND. 94 00:06:14,741 --> 00:06:17,944 >> THE TASK AT HAND IS TO ANSWER   SOME REALLY URGENT QUESTIONS. 95 00:06:18,044 --> 00:06:22,548 NUMBER ONE, WHAT DOES THE WEST      DO, WHAT DOES NATO DO, WHAT DOES 96 00:06:22,648 --> 00:06:29,088 BIDEN DO IF PUTIN DECIDES TO        LAUNCH A WOMEN WOMEN'S ATTACK? 97 00:06:29,188 --> 00:06:36,896 LAUNCH A WOMEN WOMEN'S AT-- LAU     NUCLEAR WEAPONS ATTACK? 98 00:06:36,996 --> 00:06:39,699 BIDEN IS STANDING AT THE            PRECIPICE OF A RED LINE. 99 00:06:39,799 --> 00:06:42,568 >> THE U.S. HAS BEEN CAUTIOUS       ABOUT GOING TOO FAR IN 100 00:06:42,668 --> 00:06:48,674 SUPPORTING UKRAINE.                 IF YOU DON'T MAKE PUTIN PAY A 101 00:06:48,775 --> 00:06:52,812 HIGH ENOUGH PRICE, WHAT ARE YOU     UNLEASHING IN THE WORLD FOR 102 00:06:52,912 --> 00:06:56,149 OTHER NUCLEAR POWERS, WHAT THEY     WILL EXPECT THE WEST TO 103 00:06:56,249 --> 00:06:56,816 TOLERATE? 104 00:06:57,483 --> 00:06:59,652 >> IF YOU'RE A ROGUE STATE          WATCHING ALL OF THIS INFOLD, WHY 105 00:06:59,752 --> 00:07:02,321 WOULDN'T YOU DEVELOP A NUCLEAR      ARSENAL? 106 00:07:02,422 --> 00:07:07,126 >> IN THE DETERRENCE GAME, IF       YOU DON'T DRAW RED LINES, YOU'RE 107 00:07:07,226 --> 00:07:12,732 KIND OF OPENING THE DOOR AND        EMBOLDENING PUTIN, WELL, I DON'T 108 00:07:12,832 --> 00:07:14,267 KNOW WHAT THE PRICE WOULD BE        HERE. 109 00:07:14,367 --> 00:07:19,572 >> WHAT'S SO DANGEROUS IN THIS      CONFLICT IS YOU USUALLY HAVE AN 110 00:07:19,672 --> 00:07:23,276 AGREED-UPON RED LINE, WE KNOW IF   WE DO X, Y WILL HAPPEN. 111 00:07:23,376 --> 00:07:28,014 BUT IN THIS INSANITY, PUTIN HAS     HIS RED LINE AND WE HAVE OURS. 112 00:07:28,114 --> 00:07:31,651 >> ALL OF A SUDDEN WHAT WAS ONCE   UNTHINKABLE IS NOW THINKABLE AND 113 00:07:31,751 --> 00:07:36,222 WE'RE SITTING HERE, ALL OF US,      STARING DOWN THE BARREL OF THE 114 00:07:36,322 --> 00:07:43,162 NUCLEAR OPTION. 115 00:07:43,262 --> 00:07:46,132 >> SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL AT       THE PENTAGON SAYS RUSSIAN FORCES 116 00:07:46,232 --> 00:07:48,234 ARE NOW STALLED AND DESPERATE TO   GAIN MOMENT. 117 00:07:48,334 --> 00:07:52,238 >> WHAT WILL THE KREMLIN DO AS      IT CONTINUALLY FACES THESE 118 00:07:52,338 --> 00:07:58,010 BATTLEFIELD DEFEATS? 119 00:07:58,110 --> 00:08:02,014 >> A SPOKESPERSON SAID TODAY        VLADIMIR PUTIN IS READY TO 120 00:08:02,114 --> 00:08:06,719 DEPLOY NUCLEAR ARMS IN CASE         RUSSIA FEELS THREATENED. 121 00:08:06,819 --> 00:08:12,225 >> IF IT IS AN EXISTENTIAL          THREAT FOR OUR COUNTRY, THEN IT 122 00:08:12,325 --> 00:08:16,762 CAN BE USED IN ACCORDANCE WITH      OUR CONSTANT. 123 00:08:16,863 --> 00:08:17,997 >> ARE YOU CONCERNED? 124 00:08:18,097 --> 00:08:20,233 >> WE MONITOR THIS AS BEST WE       CAN EVERY DAY. 125 00:08:20,333 --> 00:08:24,237 WE HAVEN'T SEEN ANYTHING THAT       WOULD LEAD US TO CONCLUDE THAT 126 00:08:24,337 --> 00:08:28,708 WE NEED TO CHANGE OUR STRATEGIC     DETERRENT POSTURE. 127 00:08:28,808 --> 00:08:29,509 OKAY, THANKS, EVERYBODY. 128 00:08:29,609 --> 00:08:30,543 >> HELLO. 129 00:08:30,643 --> 00:08:31,644 >> HAVE A SEAT. 130 00:08:31,744 --> 00:08:32,612 >> SIT DOWN? 131 00:08:32,712 --> 00:08:40,219 >> THAT'S WHERE IT WILL BE BEST. 132 00:08:40,319 --> 00:08:41,420 >> WHATEVER YOU WANT, MA'AM. 133 00:08:41,521 --> 00:08:44,557 >> YOU HAVE A VERY SPECIFIC         ANSWER THAT YOU GIVE WHENEVER 134 00:08:44,657 --> 00:08:47,159 YOU'RE ASKED ABOUT RUSSIA USING     THE NUCLEAR OPTION. 135 00:08:47,260 --> 00:08:49,996 >> WE REMAIN CONFIDENT IN OUR       STRATEGIC POSTURE. 136 00:08:50,096 --> 00:08:53,432 SECRETARY AUSTIN IS COMFORTABLE     AND CONFIDENT WITH OUR STRATEGIC 137 00:08:53,533 --> 00:08:55,635 DETERRENT POSTURE AS IT IS. 138 00:08:55,735 --> 00:08:58,204 >> YOU HAVE TO BE PARTICULARLY      CAREFUL ABOUT HOW YOU DEAL WITH 139 00:08:58,304 --> 00:08:59,372 THAT, IS THAT RIGHT? 140 00:08:59,472 --> 00:09:03,209 >> WHAT I THINK ABOUT IS THE        MULTIPLE AUDIENCES WE'RE 141 00:09:03,309 --> 00:09:05,378 COMMUNICATING TO.                   IT'S NOT JUST MY MOM. 142 00:09:05,478 --> 00:09:08,147 IT'S NOT JUST THE AMERICAN          PEOPLE. 143 00:09:08,247 --> 00:09:12,685 IT'S OUR NATO ALLIES, THE           UKRAINIAN PEOPLE, THE UKRAINIAN 144 00:09:12,785 --> 00:09:16,222 LEADERSHIP, AND THE KREMLIN.        THERE'S AN OPPORTUNITY TO SEND A 145 00:09:16,322 --> 00:09:19,659 VERY CLEAR MESSAGE ON WHERE THE     ADMINISTRATION IS IN SIMPLE 146 00:09:19,759 --> 00:09:22,461 ENOUGH LANGUAGE THAT MULTIPLE       AUDIENCES CAN INTERPRET IT 147 00:09:22,562 --> 00:09:26,999 APPROPRIATELY.                      WE WANT THE AMERICAN PEOPLE TO 148 00:09:27,099 --> 00:09:31,203 KNOW WHERE WE ARE RELATING TO       NATO. 149 00:09:31,304 --> 00:09:35,675 >> I'VE SEEN BOTH YOU AND THE       SECRETARY HAVE SPECULATED, WHY 150 00:09:35,775 --> 00:09:39,278 WOULD RUSSIA FEEL THE NEED TO       USE HYPERSONIC MISSILES? 151 00:09:39,378 --> 00:09:41,180 THESE ARE MISSILES THAT COULD BE   ARMED WITH NUCLEAR WEAPONS. 152 00:09:41,280 --> 00:09:42,214 >> RIGHT. 153 00:09:42,615 --> 00:09:44,617 >> ARE YOU RAISING THE QUESTION     BECAUSE YOU'RE CONCERNED THAT'S 154 00:09:44,717 --> 00:09:45,718 WHAT THIS IS ABOUT? 155 00:09:45,818 --> 00:09:48,721 >> IT COULD BE THAT IN THE          PRECISION GUIDED MUNITIONS 156 00:09:48,821 --> 00:09:51,891 INVENTORY THAT THEY'RE HAVING       PROBLEMS AND WE DO THINK THERE 157 00:09:51,991 --> 00:09:55,962 IS A DECREMENT THERE.               MAYBE THEY DID IT TO SEND A 158 00:09:56,062 --> 00:09:57,997 MESSAGE TO THE UKRAINIANS ABOUT     LEVERAGE AT THE NEGOTIATING 159 00:09:58,097 --> 00:10:00,132 TABLE.                              MAYBE IT WAS A MESSAGE TO NATO 160 00:10:00,232 --> 00:10:02,468 AND THE UNITED STATES, HEY,         WE'VE GOT SOMETHING HERE THAT WE 161 00:10:02,568 --> 00:10:05,371 CAN USE EFFECTIVELY.                IT'S NOT EXACTLY CLEAR, BECAUSE 162 00:10:05,471 --> 00:10:09,208 WE'RE NOT IN MR. PUTIN'S BRAIN      AND WE DON'T HAVE INSIGHT INTO 163 00:10:09,308 --> 00:10:11,177 THE RUSSIAN PLANNING PROCESS. 164 00:10:11,277 --> 00:10:17,116 >> IT FEELS LIKE WE'RE ENTERING     A NEW, MORE UNCERTAIN PHASE 165 00:10:17,216 --> 00:10:17,450 OF -- 166 00:10:17,550 --> 00:10:18,384 >> YEAH. 167 00:10:18,484 --> 00:10:21,520 >> -- WHAT THEY'RE GOING TO BE      CAPABLE OF. 168 00:10:21,621 --> 00:10:24,557 >> WE THINK THEY WERE               OVERCONFIDENT, THAT THEY DID NOT 169 00:10:24,657 --> 00:10:28,127 PROPERLY FACTOR IN THEIR OWN        INTELLIGENCE ABOUT WHAT THEY 170 00:10:28,227 --> 00:10:30,396 WERE GOING TO FACE ON THE OTHER     SIDE OF THAT BORDER, AND NOW 171 00:10:30,496 --> 00:10:33,833 THEY'RE FRUSTRATED.                 AND SO WHAT WE'RE SEEING IS 172 00:10:33,933 --> 00:10:37,637 REALLY REACTIONARY BOMBARDMENT      AND LONG RANGE FIRES INTO CITY 173 00:10:37,737 --> 00:10:41,040 AND TARGETING OF CIVILIANS          DELIBERATELY TO TRY TO BRING 174 00:10:41,140 --> 00:10:43,542 UKRAINE TO ITS KNEES.               IT'S A REACTION TO THE 175 00:10:43,643 --> 00:10:46,278 FRUSTRATION THEY'RE HAVING.         TO CALL IT A PHASE WOULD BE 176 00:10:46,379 --> 00:10:53,953 GIVING THEM TOO MUCH CREDIT FOR     THINKING THIS THROUGH. 177 00:10:54,053 --> 00:10:57,023 >> WE HEAR THIS DISCUSSION ABOUT   CHEMICAL WEAPONS, ABOUT POSSIBLE 178 00:10:57,123 --> 00:10:58,691 NUCLEAR ATTACKS.                    WE HEARD PRESIDENT BIDEN SAYING 179 00:10:58,791 --> 00:11:01,293 TODAY IT'S A REAL CONCERN. 180 00:11:01,394 --> 00:11:05,631 >> THERE'S BEEN AN EXTRAORDINARY   AMOUNT OF PLANNING AND PLOTTING 181 00:11:05,731 --> 00:11:10,135 AND WAR GAMING AND SCHEMING ALL     THROUGH THE COLD WAR AND AFTER 182 00:11:10,236 --> 00:11:15,875 THE COLD WAR AROUND WHAT NUCLEAR   WAR MIGHT LOOK LIKE. 183 00:11:15,975 --> 00:11:24,417 >> DIAN NIAN DEVOTED HIS LIFE TO   THE STUDY OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS, 184 00:11:24,517 --> 00:11:26,085 DISARMAMENT.                        A COUPLE OF YEARS AGO 185 00:11:26,185 --> 00:11:30,890 RESEARCHERS IN PRINCETON DID A      SIMULATION WHERE THEY MODELLED A 186 00:11:30,990 --> 00:11:34,393 SITUATION VERY SIMILAR TO THE       ONE WE'RE IN RIGHT NOW, A 187 00:11:34,493 --> 00:11:38,497 CONVENTIONAL WAR IN EUROPE,         INVOLVING RUSSIA ON ONE SIDE AND 188 00:11:38,597 --> 00:11:41,534 NATO ON THE OTHER SIDE IN WHICH     THE RUSSIANS DECIDE TO USE A 189 00:11:41,634 --> 00:11:45,871 SINGLE NUCLEAR WARHEAD AND THEY     LOOKED AT WHAT WOULD HAPPEN. 190 00:11:45,971 --> 00:11:49,008 >> THE SIMULATION IS NOT            SOMETHING YOU GUYS CREATED 191 00:11:49,108 --> 00:11:53,479 BECAUSE OF THE RUSSIA/UKRAINE       SITUATION. 192 00:11:53,579 --> 00:11:54,780 GOING BACK AT LEAST A COUPLE OF     YEARS. 193 00:11:54,880 --> 00:11:57,383 WHAT MADE IT EVEN MORE DANGEROUS   EVEN PRIOR TO THE YEAR? 194 00:11:57,483 --> 00:12:00,720 >> AT THE END OF THE COLD WAR WE   SAW A SERIES OF PROCESSES 195 00:12:00,820 --> 00:12:03,522 REDUCING THE NUMBER OF NUCLEAR      WEAPONS AND IT LOOKED LIKE WE 196 00:12:03,622 --> 00:12:07,393 WERE FINALLY STARTING TO GET RID   OF THEM UNTIL THE EARLY 2000s 197 00:12:07,493 --> 00:12:11,363 WHERE THE UNITED STATES BECAME      THE FIRST COUNTRY TO WITHDRAW 198 00:12:11,464 --> 00:12:13,799 FROM A NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL         TREATY. 199 00:12:13,899 --> 00:12:18,237 THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION WITHDREW   FROM THE ANTIBALLISTIC MISSILE 200 00:12:18,337 --> 00:12:20,539 TREATY.                             WHEN WE GO TO TO THE TRUMP 201 00:12:20,639 --> 00:12:22,775 ADMINISTRATION, THERE WAS JUST A   WHOLESALE RETREAT FROM THE 202 00:12:22,875 --> 00:12:26,345 PRACTICE OF RESTRAINT.              THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION 203 00:12:26,445 --> 00:12:29,849 CATEGORICALLY AND EXPLICITLY        EXPANDED THE CONDITIONS UNDER 204 00:12:29,949 --> 00:12:32,418 WHICH THE UNITED STATES WOULD       USE NUCLEAR WEAPONS. 205 00:12:32,518 --> 00:12:35,755 THE UNITED STATES, RUSSIA,          CHINA, THEY WERE ALL MOVING IN 206 00:12:35,855 --> 00:12:39,558 THE WRONG DIRECTION.                AND SO WE TRIED TO BUILD A 207 00:12:39,658 --> 00:12:42,795 SIMULATION ON WHAT A NUCLEAR WAR   MIGHT ACTUALLY LOOK LIKE. 208 00:12:42,895 --> 00:12:47,166 >> THE NOTION THAT RUSSIA MIGHT     USE NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN A CERTAIN 209 00:12:47,266 --> 00:12:50,336 CIRCUMSTANCE IS PARTLY              REINFORCED BY THE PERCEPTIONS OF 210 00:12:50,436 --> 00:12:51,837 PUTIN.                              THAT'S KIND OF KEY TO HOW THEY 211 00:12:51,937 --> 00:12:54,807 WORK, RIGHT, THE OTHER SIDE HAS     TO BELIEVE YOU'RE JUST CRAZY 212 00:12:54,907 --> 00:12:56,041 ENOUGH TO USE THEM. 213 00:12:56,142 --> 00:12:58,310 >> THAT'S ONE OF THE REASONS        COUNTRIES HAVE NUCLEAR WEAPONS, 214 00:12:58,410 --> 00:13:02,014 IS TO GIVE THEM THAT KIND OF        STRATEGIC AUTONOMY. 215 00:13:02,114 --> 00:13:04,750 FOR PUTIN IT'S NOT ABOUT BEING      THREATENED. 216 00:13:04,850 --> 00:13:06,051 IT'S ABOUT BEING DOMINANT. 217 00:13:06,152 --> 00:13:07,286 >> YES. 218 00:13:07,385 --> 00:13:10,389 >> I HAVE A NUCLEAR SHIELD,         THEREFORE GET OUT OF MY WAY AND 219 00:13:10,489 --> 00:13:12,224 I CAN FIGHT WHATEVER WAR I WANT. 220 00:13:12,324 --> 00:13:13,592 >> PLEASE. 221 00:13:13,692 --> 00:13:19,899 >> WE START WITH THE PRESUMPTION   OF A CONVENTIONAL CONFLICT. 222 00:13:19,999 --> 00:13:22,401 >> SIMILAR TO WHAT WE'RE SEEING     NOW IN EUROPE. 223 00:13:22,501 --> 00:13:27,740 >> YES.                             IT BEGINS WITH THE RUSSIANS 224 00:13:27,840 --> 00:13:29,842 LAUNCHING A NUCLEAR WARNING SHOT   INTO POLAND. 225 00:13:29,942 --> 00:13:33,045 >> WHAT WOULD THAT BE IN THIS       CONTEXT? 226 00:13:33,145 --> 00:13:35,514 >> YOU'RE NOT INTENDING TO          DESTROY A CITY. 227 00:13:35,614 --> 00:13:42,121 THIS IS TO TELL YOU TO BACK OFF.   SO SENIOR LEVEL DECISIONMAKERS 228 00:13:42,221 --> 00:13:44,924 WITH NATO DECIDE WE CAN'T JUST      SEEM TO BE INTIMIDATED AND WE 229 00:13:45,024 --> 00:13:52,131 HAVE TO RESPOND IN KIND.            AND THERE YOU SEE RETALIATORY 230 00:13:52,231 --> 00:13:56,602 STRIKE BY NATO USING A U.S. JET     FIGHTER FROM A BASE IN GERMANY. 231 00:13:56,702 --> 00:13:59,972 >> THIS GOES FROM ONE NUCLEAR       DEVICE IN BOTH DIRECTIONS, ALL 232 00:14:00,072 --> 00:14:03,209 OF A SUDDEN WE HAVE THIS.           RUSSIA BASICALLY SAYS, OKAY, 233 00:14:03,309 --> 00:14:07,580 NATO HAS NOW GONE NUCLEAR ON US,   WE HAVE TO TAKE OUT ALL THE 234 00:14:07,680 --> 00:14:08,380 BASES. 235 00:14:08,914 --> 00:14:10,082 >> WE DIDN'T PRESUME THEY WOULD     DIRECTLY ATTACK THE UNITED 236 00:14:10,182 --> 00:14:13,085 STATES BUT THAT THEY WOULD GO       FOR WHERE THESE WEAPONS CAME 237 00:14:13,185 --> 00:14:13,619 FROM. 238 00:14:14,385 --> 00:14:16,789 >> NATO RESPONDS WITH 180           NUCLEAR WARHEADS BY AIRCRAFT. 239 00:14:16,889 --> 00:14:20,893 OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT         THREE HOURS, WE HAVE FULL SCALE 240 00:14:20,993 --> 00:14:24,663 TACTICAL NUCLEAR WAR IN EUROPE      WITH 480 NUCLEAR WARHEADS 241 00:14:24,763 --> 00:14:25,331 LAUNCHED. 242 00:14:25,698 --> 00:14:27,800 >> YES.                             SETTING THE CLOCK ON THIS HAS IN 243 00:14:27,900 --> 00:14:30,369 PART TO DO WITH ALWAYS SEEKING      THE ADVANTAGE OF THE FIRST MOVE. 244 00:14:30,469 --> 00:14:32,705 BECAUSE IF YOU'RE SECOND WHEN       NUCLEAR WEAPONS ARE THERE THEN 245 00:14:32,805 --> 00:14:36,876 YOU MAY NOT BE ABLE TO RESPOND.     THAT'S WHY EVERYTHING GETS SPED 246 00:14:36,976 --> 00:14:37,977 UP IN THIS PROCESS. 247 00:14:38,077 --> 00:14:39,979 >> THE NEXT PHASE IS THE            COUNTERFORCE, TARGETING EACH 248 00:14:40,079 --> 00:14:41,247 OTHER'S BASES. 249 00:14:41,347 --> 00:14:46,418 >> THE U.S. LAUNCHES STRATEGIC      NUCLEAR WEAPONS, GOING OVER THE 250 00:14:46,518 --> 00:14:48,420 POLES AND ATTACKING TARGETS         ACROSS RUSSIA. 251 00:14:48,520 --> 00:14:52,224 THE RUSSIANS CAN SEE THAT THE       MISSILES ARE COMING, AND SO THEY 252 00:14:52,324 --> 00:14:52,825 LAUNCH. 253 00:14:53,392 --> 00:15:00,165 >> MISSILES HEADED TOWARDS NOW      CIVILIAN TARGETS. 254 00:15:00,266 --> 00:15:05,938 IF I WENT 91.5 MILLION IMMEDIATE   CASUALTIES, 34 MILLION DEAD, 255 00:15:06,038 --> 00:15:09,041 57.4 MILLION INJURIES, AND THIS     IS OVER THE SPAN OF ABOUT THE 256 00:15:09,141 --> 00:15:12,177 AMOUNT OF TIME IN BETWEEN MY        BREAKFAST AND MY LUNCH. 257 00:15:12,278 --> 00:15:19,218 >> IN 2018, THE HEAD OF             STRATEGIC COMMAND IN CHARGE OF 258 00:15:19,318 --> 00:15:21,453 ALL U.S. NUCLEAR WEAPONS            ACTUALLY SAID IN PUBLIC, EVERY 259 00:15:21,553 --> 00:15:25,557 NUCLEAR WAR EXERCISE THAT THE       UNITED STATES STRATEGIC COMMAND 260 00:15:25,658 --> 00:15:31,363 DOES, IT GOES BAD.                  IT ENDS IN GLOBAL THERMONUCLEAR 261 00:15:31,463 --> 00:15:33,299 WAR.                                EVERY TIME. 262 00:15:33,399 --> 00:15:37,069 >> IS IT NOT A CRAZY THING TO       WATCH THIS AND THINK, THAT'S 263 00:15:37,169 --> 00:15:39,772 WHAT EITHER WOULD HAPPEN OR         MIGHT WELL HAPPEN IF PUTIN WERE 264 00:15:39,872 --> 00:15:42,441 TO DECIDE TO DO THAT TOMORROW? 265 00:15:42,541 --> 00:15:51,216 >> BOTH SIDES HAVE BUILT WHAT       YOU COULD CALL EXTERMINIST 266 00:15:51,317 --> 00:15:52,451 MACHINES, MACHINES FOR MASS         KILLING. 267 00:15:52,551 --> 00:15:54,653 WHAT YOU HIT AND HOW YOU HIT AND   WHAT YOU PREPARE FOR IS ALL 268 00:15:54,753 --> 00:15:59,058 BUILT INTO THESE MACHINES.          THAT THEY ARE ACTUALLY NOW 269 00:15:59,158 --> 00:16:02,227 INTERLOCKING AS THEY HAVE BEEN      THROUGHOUT THE COLD WAR. 270 00:16:02,328 --> 00:16:09,935 AND THE LOGIC OF THESE MACHINES     IS ONE THAT GENERATES THIS 271 00:16:10,035 --> 00:16:11,837 OUTCOME.                            BUT IT IS ONLY A LOGIC, AND IT 272 00:16:11,937 --> 00:16:14,540 IS ONLY A MACHINE.                  THERE ARE THINGS THAT COULD 273 00:16:14,640 --> 00:16:16,208 HAPPEN THAT STOP ANY OF THIS        FROM HAPPENING. 274 00:16:16,308 --> 00:16:17,142 >> YES. 275 00:16:17,576 --> 00:16:20,746 >> AND THERE ARE THINGS THAT        COULD MAKE IT HAPPEN EVEN THOUGH 276 00:16:20,846 --> 00:16:22,548 NOBODY INTENDS FOR ANY OF IT TO     HAPPEN. 277 00:16:22,648 --> 00:16:24,216 >> YES. 278 00:16:24,316 --> 00:16:26,752 >> SO I DON'T WANT TO MAKE IT       SOUND LIKE IT'S KIND OF 279 00:16:26,852 --> 00:16:27,953 DETERMINED. 280 00:16:28,053 --> 00:16:30,889 >> IT'S A PERFECTLY PLAUSIBLE       OUTCOME, ONCE YOU START DOWN 281 00:16:30,990 --> 00:16:32,758 THIS PATH THINGS START TO HAPPEN   VERY FAST. 282 00:16:32,858 --> 00:16:35,560 >> VERY FAST.                       BUT PEOPLE CAN CHOOSE 283 00:16:35,661 --> 00:16:36,862 DIFFERENTLY.                        IT'S STILL NOT TOO LATE. 284 00:16:36,962 --> 00:16:45,404 THE BOMBS HAVEN'T GONE OFF YET. 285 00:16:45,504 --> 00:16:49,074 >> JOE BIDEN LANDED IN BRUSSELS     IN JUST THE LAST HOUR, STARTING 286 00:16:49,174 --> 00:16:52,478 A HIGH STAKES, THREE-DAY TRIP       OVERSEAS. 287 00:16:52,578 --> 00:16:57,516 >> IT'S MISSION, RAMPING UP         PRESSURE ON VLADIMIR PUTIN TO 288 00:16:57,616 --> 00:16:59,952 STOP THE BRUTAL SIEGE OF            UKRAINE. 289 00:17:00,052 --> 00:17:05,657 >> SO AFTER A DAY OF RUSSIAN        SABER-RATTLING ALL OVER STATE TV 290 00:17:05,758 --> 00:17:10,095 WITH A MEMBER OF THE DUMA           TALKING ABOUT THE FACT THAT 291 00:17:10,195 --> 00:17:14,767 RUSSIA WOULD NUKE WARSAW IF NATO   WERE TO SEND A PEACEKEEPING 292 00:17:14,867 --> 00:17:25,577 FORCE.                              [ SPEAKING FOREIGN LANGUAGE ] 293 00:17:25,677 --> 00:17:31,016 THE FIRST HINT OF HOW NATO IS       GOING TO HANDLE THIS PUBLICLY IS 294 00:17:31,116 --> 00:17:33,552 THIS PRESS CONFERENCE WE'RE         WAITING FOR WITH THE NATO 295 00:17:33,652 --> 00:17:37,756 SECRETARY GENERAL.                  HERE COMES STOLTENBERG. 296 00:17:37,856 --> 00:17:41,060 >> THE PEOPLE OF UKRAINE ARE        FIGHTING FOR THEIR FUTURE. 297 00:17:41,160 --> 00:17:46,465 WE STAND WITH THEM.                 OUR TOP MILITARY COMMANDER, 298 00:17:46,565 --> 00:17:53,505 GENERAL WALTERS, HAS ACTIVATED      NATO'S BIOLOGICAL, RADIOLOGICAL, 299 00:17:53,605 --> 00:17:56,475 AND NUCLEAR DEFENSE MEASURES.       WE'RE TAKING MEASURES TO SUPPORT 300 00:17:56,575 --> 00:18:03,382 UKRAINE AND DEFEND OURSELVES.       [ SPEAKING FOREIGN LANGUAGE ] 301 00:18:03,482 --> 00:18:06,085 >> WE WILL SEE PRESIDENT BIDEN,     HE'S GOING TO GIVE US A PRESS 302 00:18:06,185 --> 00:18:09,588 CONFERENCE AND DEBRIEF REPORTERS   ON THESE CRITICAL THOUGHTS 303 00:18:09,688 --> 00:18:11,123 THEY'VE HELD BEHIND THE SCENES      HERE. 304 00:18:11,223 --> 00:18:16,762 >> TODAY MARKS ONE MONTH SINCE      RUSSIA BEGAN ITS BRUTAL INVASION 305 00:18:16,862 --> 00:18:20,165 OF UKRAINE.                         NATO HAS NEVER, NEVER BEEN MORE 306 00:18:20,265 --> 00:18:23,535 UNITED THAN IT IS TODAY.            PUTIN IS GETTING EXACTLY THE 307 00:18:23,635 --> 00:18:28,240 OPPOSITE OF WHAT HE INTENDED TO     HAVE AS A CONSEQUENCE OF GOING 308 00:18:28,340 --> 00:18:33,645 INTO UKRAINE. 309 00:18:33,745 --> 00:18:36,181 >> PRESIDENT BIDEN AND U.S.         ALLIES DRAW A NEW LINE AGAINST 310 00:18:36,281 --> 00:18:41,186 RUSSIA, VOWING NATO WOULD           RESPOND IF VLADIMIR PUTIN USES 311 00:18:41,286 --> 00:18:42,588 CHEMICAL WEAPONS IN UKRAINE. 312 00:18:42,688 --> 00:18:45,958 >> A BIG QUESTION HAS BEEN          WHETHER OR NOT IT WOULD CHANGE 313 00:18:46,058 --> 00:18:49,461 THIS CALCULUS HE HAS ABOUT NO       MILITARY INTERVENTION IN 314 00:18:49,561 --> 00:18:50,329 UKRAINE. 315 00:18:50,429 --> 00:18:53,632 >> WHAT ABOUT THIS?                 THAT'S THE GO-FOR. 316 00:18:53,732 --> 00:18:54,833 >> THE LEFT HOOK. 317 00:18:54,933 --> 00:18:56,568 >> THE LEFT HOOK, RIGHT. 318 00:18:56,668 --> 00:18:59,104 >> SOME PEOPLE HAVE DRAWN           SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THE GULF 319 00:18:59,204 --> 00:19:03,375 WAR AND WHAT WE MAY BE FACING IN   UKRAINE. 320 00:19:03,475 --> 00:19:06,245 >> WELL, YOU KNOW, I USED TO        TELL THE MEDIA THAT I NEVER TOLD 321 00:19:06,345 --> 00:19:08,213 THE TRUTH ABOUT THE END THAT        HAVE CONFLICT AND WHY SHOULD I 322 00:19:08,313 --> 00:19:15,954 START NOW? 323 00:19:16,054 --> 00:19:20,125 >> JAKE SULLIVAN SAID AT THE        NATO SUMMIT YESTERDAY THAT THE 324 00:19:20,225 --> 00:19:24,263 PRESIDENT, WITH THE NATO            LEADERS, WOULD BE DISCUSSING THE 325 00:19:24,363 --> 00:19:29,268 POTENTIAL OF A NUCLEAR ATTACK.      WHAT MIGHT THEY HAVE BEEN 326 00:19:29,368 --> 00:19:30,536 TALKING ABOUT DOING AS A            RESPONSE? 327 00:19:30,636 --> 00:19:34,439 >> WELL, LOOK, YOU KNOW, I'VE       BEEN A, QUOTE, EXPERT ON WEAPONS 328 00:19:34,540 --> 00:19:36,842 OF MASS DESTRUCTIONS FOR THE        LAST 40 YEARS. 329 00:19:36,942 --> 00:19:39,645 IF THE RUSSIANS DO AN               UNRESTRICTED FIRST STRIKE, 330 00:19:39,745 --> 00:19:44,216 TRYING TO KNOCK OUT OUR NUCLEAR     CAPABILITY, 72 HOURS LATER, THE 331 00:19:44,316 --> 00:19:47,819 RUSSIAN FEDERATION WOULD BE         VAPORIZED. 332 00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:53,091 YOU CANNOT LOGICALLY ENTERTAIN A   STRATEGIC EXCHANGE. 333 00:19:53,192 --> 00:19:58,463 SO I DON'T BELIEVE THERE'S ANY      POSSIBILITY OF A NUCLEAR WAR 334 00:19:58,564 --> 00:20:04,836 STARTING, UNLESS PUTIN              PERSONALLY LOSES HIS SANITY, NOT 335 00:20:04,937 --> 00:20:06,305 TO BE IGNORED AS A POSSIBILITY. 336 00:20:06,405 --> 00:20:09,074 >> A SENIOR ADMINISTRATION          OFFICIAL SAID THIS WEEK, ANY USE 337 00:20:09,174 --> 00:20:13,378 OF A SMALL TACTICAL NUCLEAR BOMB   BY RUSSIA, EVEN INSIDE UKRAINE 338 00:20:13,478 --> 00:20:16,181 AND NOT DIRECTED AT A NATO          MEMBER, WOULD MEAN THAT ALL BETS 339 00:20:16,281 --> 00:20:18,617 ARE OFF ON THE UNITED STATES AND   NATO STAYING OUT OF THE WAR. 340 00:20:18,717 --> 00:20:22,888 >> AND BY THE WAY, WHAT WOULD       THE TARGET BE IN THE UKRAINE? 341 00:20:22,988 --> 00:20:30,128 YOU KNOW, MILITARY GUY, TAKE        ASIDE POLITICAL OBJECTIVES, WHAT 342 00:20:30,229 --> 00:20:32,231 GOOD WOULD YOU POSSIBLE DO WITH     SUCH A WEAPON? 343 00:20:32,331 --> 00:20:33,432 >> THAT MEANS -- 344 00:20:33,532 --> 00:20:37,002 >> IT MIGHT BE HALF THE FORCE OF   THE EXPLOSION THAT KILLED 345 00:20:37,102 --> 00:20:41,740 100,000 PEOPLE IN AN INSTANT IN     NAGASAKI AND HIROSHIMA. 346 00:20:41,840 --> 00:20:44,576 WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO DO, ATTACK   A CIVIL POPULATION CENTER? 347 00:20:44,676 --> 00:20:47,512 YOU'RE GOING TO GO AFTER A          BATTALION YOU'VE LOCATED? 348 00:20:47,613 --> 00:20:50,549 AT SOME POINT WE HAVE TO CALL       HIS BLUFF ON NUCLEAR WEAPONS. 349 00:20:50,649 --> 00:20:54,553 >> THERE IS A THEORY, ESCALATE      TO DE-ESCALATE, HOW IN A 350 00:20:54,653 --> 00:20:59,191 SITUATION WHERE THE RUSSIANS ARE   STALLED LIKE THEY ARE NOW, THEY 351 00:20:59,291 --> 00:21:05,063 MAY TAKE A VERY AGGRESSIVE WMD      ACTION TO SORT OF SHAKE UP THE 352 00:21:05,163 --> 00:21:05,797 SITUATION. 353 00:21:06,465 --> 00:21:11,570 >> I THINK PUTIN PUFFED HIMSELF     UP AND HE'S TRYING TO RESCUE A 354 00:21:11,670 --> 00:21:15,307 CONVENTIONAL INVASION THAT'S        GOING BADLY BY THREATENING 355 00:21:15,407 --> 00:21:18,343 NUCLEAR WEAPONS.                    HIS MILITARY IS OF MODEST 356 00:21:18,443 --> 00:21:22,414 DIMENSIONS AND CAPABILITIES.        THEY'RE NOT A SERIOUS, HUGE 357 00:21:22,514 --> 00:21:25,350 MILITARY POWER, EXCEPT NUCLEAR      WEAPONS. 358 00:21:25,450 --> 00:21:29,187 >> IT WAS REPORTED IN "THE          TIMES" EARLIER IN THE WEEK THAT 359 00:21:29,288 --> 00:21:34,860 THE ADMINISTRATION HAD              ESTABLISHED A TIGER TEAM THAT IS 360 00:21:34,960 --> 00:21:40,232 PLAYING OUT DIFFERENT OPTIONS       SHOULD THERE BE A WMD ATTACK. 361 00:21:40,332 --> 00:21:43,168 >> WE SHOULDN'T EVER SAY HERE'S     WHAT WE WOULD DO. 362 00:21:43,268 --> 00:21:45,070 WE SHOULD NEVER SAY THAT. 363 00:21:45,170 --> 00:21:48,073 >> ONCE YOU START DESCRIBING        WHAT MAY HAPPEN, DOES IT MAKE IT 364 00:21:48,173 --> 00:21:48,907 MORE REAL? 365 00:21:49,007 --> 00:21:51,877 >> I THINK IT MAKES IT MORE         SALIENT. 366 00:21:51,977 --> 00:21:54,479 WE'RE RESPONDING TO PUTIN'S         NUTTY BEHAVIOR. 367 00:21:54,579 --> 00:22:00,052 HE'S DESPERATE AND AFRAID ABOUT     A FAILING OPTION AND USING A 368 00:22:00,152 --> 00:22:02,654 NUCLEAR THREAT PUBLICLY TO DETER   US. 369 00:22:02,754 --> 00:22:04,289 AND TO SOME EXTENT, IT'S            WORKING. 370 00:22:04,389 --> 00:22:10,362 ALL OF US WHO HAVE AN OUNCE OF      SENSE SAY, GOSH, WE BETTER BE 371 00:22:10,462 --> 00:22:13,732 CAREFUL HERE.                       HOWEVER, JENNIFER, I WOULD 372 00:22:13,832 --> 00:22:19,805 ASSERT STRONGLY THAT THE END OF     THIS CONFLICT, WE CANNOT ALLOW 373 00:22:19,905 --> 00:22:25,977 PUTIN TO SAY "I WON."               IT'S IMPORTANT FOR HIM TO BE 374 00:22:26,078 --> 00:22:28,246 HUMILIATED.                         WE DO NOT WANT, AT THE END OF 375 00:22:28,347 --> 00:22:32,284 THE DAY, HAVE SOME BLAND            AGREEMENT WHERE HE'S OFF THE 376 00:22:32,384 --> 00:22:34,686 HOOK.                               WE WANT THE RUSSIAN PEOPLE TO 377 00:22:34,786 --> 00:22:40,125 KNOW THIS WAS A DREADFUL,           CRIMINAL MISTAKE CAUSED BY PUTIN 378 00:22:40,225 --> 00:22:40,826 HIMSELF. 379 00:22:41,493 --> 00:22:44,162 >> THAT'S IMPORTANT BECAUSE WE      NEED TO MAKE SURE THAT RUSSIA 380 00:22:44,262 --> 00:22:47,065 WOULD NOT CONTINUE TO PURSUE -- 381 00:22:47,165 --> 00:22:53,772 >> OTHERWISE THIS WILL COME UP      AGAIN IN FIVE TO TEN YEARS. 382 00:23:03,382 --> 00:23:09,755 >> WE'RE HERE TO SPEAK WITH         ANDRE KOZOROF, THE FIRST FOREIGN 383 00:23:09,855 --> 00:23:12,224 MINISTER FOR THE RUSSIAN            FEDERATION AFTER THE DISSOLUTION 384 00:23:12,324 --> 00:23:14,493 OF THE SOVIET UNION.                HE HAS LIVED IN AMERICA FOR THE 385 00:23:14,593 --> 00:23:17,095 LAST 12 YEARS.                      HE CAN'T DISCLOSE WHERE HE LIVES 386 00:23:17,195 --> 00:23:20,599 BECAUSE OF THE THREAT OF            ASSASSINATION BECAUSE HE'S SUCH 387 00:23:20,699 --> 00:23:24,302 A VOCAL CRITIC OF PUTIN.            BUT HE STILL UNDERSTANDS 388 00:23:24,403 --> 00:23:27,639 INTRICATELY THE POWER GRID          INSIDE RUSSIA. 389 00:23:27,739 --> 00:23:32,544 LET'S JUST START WITH PUTIN.        THERE IS WIDESPREAD CONCERN THAT 390 00:23:32,644 --> 00:23:36,214 BECAUSE RUSSIA AND ITS ARMY ARE     NOT FARING BETTER IN THIS 391 00:23:36,314 --> 00:23:40,152 INVASION, THAT PUTIN'S BACK IS      AGAINST THE WALL AND SO HE IS 392 00:23:40,252 --> 00:23:44,723 READY TO DEPLOY PERHAPS NOT A       FULL NUCLEAR WARHEAD THE SIZE OF 393 00:23:44,823 --> 00:23:48,193 WHICH WE SAW IN HIROSHIMA AND       NAGASAKI. 394 00:23:48,293 --> 00:23:50,695 >> MINI NUKES, RIGHT? 395 00:23:50,796 --> 00:23:54,466 >> MINI NUKES, TACTICAL NUKES.      DO YOU THINK THAT'S A 396 00:23:54,566 --> 00:23:55,200 POSSIBILITY? 397 00:23:55,600 --> 00:23:57,102 >> I THINK IT'S VERY, VERY          LITTLE POSSIBILITY. 398 00:23:57,202 --> 00:23:59,237 ONE THING TO THREATEN SOMEBODY      WITH NUCLEAR WEAPONS. 399 00:23:59,337 --> 00:24:02,941 AND THE OTHER THING IS TO COMMIT   SUICIDE. 400 00:24:03,041 --> 00:24:06,678 NONE OF THEM, INCLUDING PUTIN       HIMSELF, ARE SUICIDAL. 401 00:24:06,778 --> 00:24:10,482 >> WHAT'S THE POINT OF IT?          HE'S ALWAYS SUGGESTING THIS 402 00:24:10,582 --> 00:24:12,083 NUCLEAR OPTION. 403 00:24:12,184 --> 00:24:12,884 >> OF COURSE. 404 00:24:13,385 --> 00:24:16,221 >> IS THAT TO CURTAIL THE U.S.      FROM TAKING A MORE ACTIVE, 405 00:24:16,321 --> 00:24:17,422 DIRECT ROLE IN THE CONFLICT? 406 00:24:17,522 --> 00:24:19,458 >> OF COURSE.                       INTIMIDATION. 407 00:24:19,558 --> 00:24:22,561 >> IT'S NOTHING BUT                 INTIMIDATION? 408 00:24:22,661 --> 00:24:24,162 >> OF COURSE NOT.                   BUT NUCLEAR WEAPONS ARE WEAPONS 409 00:24:24,262 --> 00:24:27,933 OF INTIMIDATION ON ONE SIDE AND     DETERRENCE ON THE OTHER SIDE. 410 00:24:28,033 --> 00:24:35,307 BUT DETERRENCE MEANS THAT YOU       ARE ASSURED THAT THERE WILL BE 411 00:24:35,407 --> 00:24:42,080 RESPONSE IN KIND.                   DURING THE CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS, 412 00:24:42,180 --> 00:24:47,385 THAT NIGHT WHEN IT ALL HAPPENED,   MY PARENTS DID NOT SLEEP. 413 00:24:47,486 --> 00:24:52,157 MOSCOW DID NOT SLEEP.               EVERYBODY WAS GUESSING WHETHER 414 00:24:52,257 --> 00:24:58,263 THEY WILL BE ALIVE IN AN HOUR OR   IN THE MORNING. 415 00:24:58,363 --> 00:25:02,868 KHRUSHCHEV TRIED TO SCARE JFK.      BUT JFK WAS ABSOLUTELY CLEAR 416 00:25:02,968 --> 00:25:08,106 ABOUT THAT, THAT THE MOMENT YOU     ATTACK US, WE WILL RESPOND. 417 00:25:08,206 --> 00:25:12,210 THE POSTURE OF THE WEST SHOULD      BE THE SAME. 418 00:25:12,310 --> 00:25:18,250 YOU USE IT, WE USE IT,              IMMEDIATELY, PROPORTIONATELY. 419 00:25:18,350 --> 00:25:24,222 AND NATO AND, UNFORTUNATELY,        UNITED STATES, THEY ARE AFRAID 420 00:25:24,322 --> 00:25:30,395 OF NUCLEAR WAR, AND THEY SAY,       WHAT IF PUTIN USES A MINI NUKE? 421 00:25:30,495 --> 00:25:35,901 THEY SHOULD COME WITH AN ANSWER,   NOT WITH QUESTION. 422 00:25:36,001 --> 00:25:39,671 THE PROPER FORMULATION SHOULD       BE, WE WILL USE THE SAME MINI 423 00:25:39,771 --> 00:25:41,106 NUKE IN RESPONSE, IMMEDIATELY. 424 00:25:41,206 --> 00:25:43,975 >> SO YOU THINK THE BIDEN           ADMINISTRATION HAS NOT BEEN 425 00:25:44,075 --> 00:25:49,881 NEARLY EXPLICIT ENOUGH OR           PERHAPS AGGRESSIVE ENOUGH IN 426 00:25:49,981 --> 00:25:51,816 RESPONDING TO PUTIN'S               PROVOCATION 427 00:25:51,917 --> 00:25:52,817 PROVOCA                             PROVOCATIONS? 428 00:25:52,918 --> 00:25:55,086 >> POSITIVELY.                      PRESIDENT BIDEN, WHO I RESPECT, 429 00:25:55,186 --> 00:25:58,957 AND I THINK HE'S A VERY GOOD        PRESIDENT, HE THINKS IN HIS 430 00:25:59,057 --> 00:26:02,794 WORLD, THE WORLD OF CIVILIZED       BEHAVIOR, AND FOR A CIVILIZED 431 00:26:02,894 --> 00:26:06,164 PERSON IT'S VERY DIFFICULT TO       UNDERSTAND A GUY LIKE PUTIN ON 432 00:26:06,264 --> 00:26:10,635 THE OTHER SIDE.                     FOR THAT GUY, ANY CIVILIZED 433 00:26:10,735 --> 00:26:14,172 BEHAVIOR IS TAKEN AS A SIGN OF      WEAKNESS. 434 00:26:14,272 --> 00:26:16,308 AND YOU KNOW WHERE I'M TELLING      YOU THAT? 435 00:26:16,408 --> 00:26:16,875 >> WHY? 436 00:26:16,975 --> 00:26:18,109 >> WE'RE THE SAME AGE. 437 00:26:18,209 --> 00:26:21,746 >> PUTIN AND YOU? 438 00:26:21,846 --> 00:26:24,683 >> YES.                             HE GREW IN ST. PETERSBURG. 439 00:26:24,783 --> 00:26:30,322 I GREW IN MOSCOW.                   IT WAS FULL OF STREET GANGS AND 440 00:26:30,422 --> 00:26:32,991 CRIME.                              HE REMEMBERS THAT WHEN THE TWO 441 00:26:33,091 --> 00:26:38,296 STREET GANGS MEET, THE WEAKER       ONE, THEY WILL TAKE KNIVES 442 00:26:38,396 --> 00:26:40,699 FIRST, BECAUSE THEY WILL TRY TO     SCARE YOU. 443 00:26:40,799 --> 00:26:46,471 AND THEN IF YOU STAND FIRM AND      YOU ALSO SAY, WE HAVE KNIVES 444 00:26:46,571 --> 00:26:51,943 TOO, HOW ABOUT THAT, THEN THEY      WILL RETREAT. 445 00:26:52,043 --> 00:26:52,844 THAT WAS THE RULE. 446 00:26:52,944 --> 00:26:54,012 >> YOU'RE SAYING THIS IS A          STREET FIGHT. 447 00:26:54,112 --> 00:26:55,046 >> EXACTLY. 448 00:26:55,146 --> 00:26:58,817 >> HE'S GOT A KNIFE, YOU NEED TO   SHOW HIM YOURS. 449 00:26:58,917 --> 00:27:04,089 >> I HATE TO TELL YOU THAT PUTIN   IS VERY CLOSE TO SUCCEED TO 450 00:27:04,189 --> 00:27:07,559 SCARE AMERICA AND NATO, WHICH IS   RIDICULOUS. 451 00:27:07,659 --> 00:27:15,000 IT'S LIKE PUSSYCAT SCARING A        LION. 452 00:27:15,100 --> 00:27:18,436 >> PRESIDENT BIDEN CONTINUES HIS   EUROPEAN TRIP WITH A STOP IN 453 00:27:18,536 --> 00:27:19,037 POLAND. 454 00:27:19,738 --> 00:27:21,473 >> SITTING DOWN WITH THE            UKRAINIAN FOREIGN MINISTER, MR. 455 00:27:21,573 --> 00:27:26,044 BIDEN WILL ALSO SPEAK WITH THE      POLISH PRESIDENT AND MEET 456 00:27:26,144 --> 00:27:28,113 UKRAINIAN REFUGEES. 457 00:27:28,213 --> 00:27:31,750 >> THE RUSSIAN MILITARY HAS         STRUCK LVIV. 458 00:27:31,850 --> 00:27:34,853 THIS STRIKE IS VERY CLOSE TO THE   POLISH BORDER. 459 00:27:34,953 --> 00:27:38,189 PRESIDENT BIDEN IS IN WARSAW FOR   WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE IS CALLING 460 00:27:38,289 --> 00:27:39,391 A MAJOR SPEECH. 461 00:27:39,491 --> 00:27:42,727 >> LET THERE BE NO DOUBT THAT       THIS WAR HAS ALREADY BEEN A 462 00:27:42,827 --> 00:27:48,566 STRATEGIC FAILURE FOR RUSSIA.       AND IT'S PUTIN, IT'S VLADIMIR 463 00:27:48,667 --> 00:27:55,607 PUTIN WHO IS TO BLAME, PERIOD.      DON'T EVEN THINK ABOUT GOING ON 464 00:27:55,707 --> 00:27:58,476 ONE SINGLE INCH OF NATO             TERRITORY. 465 00:27:58,576 --> 00:28:03,848 FOR GOD'S SAKE, THIS MAN CANNOT     REMAIN IN POWER. 466 00:28:03,948 --> 00:28:10,255 GOD BLESS YOU ALL AND MAY GOD       DEFEND OUR FREEDOM.