>>> OCTOBER '62, THE NATION SETTLES DOWN TO A WEEKEND OF
FOOTBALL AND TOM FOOLERY. BEHIND THE SCENES, A MAJOR
CRISIS IS DEVELOPING. AERIAL SURVEILLANCE OVER CUBA,
SHOWS RUSSIAN BOMBERS CAPABLE OF CARRYING NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
ALL OF THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE WAS WITHIN THEIR RANGE.
SUDDENLY, MILLIONS OF AMERICANS ARE ASKING, HOW CAN I MAKE MY
FAMILY SAFE?
>> WE MUST ALL GET READY NOW SO WE KNOW HOW TO SAVE OURSELVES IF
THE ATOMIC BOMB EVER EXPLODES NEAR US.
[ SIRENS ]
>> THAT SIGNAL MEANS DUCK AND COVER FAST, WHEREVER YOU ARE.
>> I CALL UPON CHAIRMAN KHRUSHCHEV.
HE HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO MOVE THE WORLD BACK FROM THE ABYSS OF
DESTRUCTION.
>> PRESIDENT KENNEDY ADDED THAT FURTHER ACTION MAY BE JUSTIFIED.
>> WITHDRAWING UNDER PRESSURE.
>> WE'LL NEVER START A WAR. WE MUST LABOR ON NOT TOWARDS A
STRATEGY OF ANNIHILATION BUT TOWARDS A STRATEGY OF PEACE.
>> RUSSIAN PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN RAISED ALARMS WHEN HE PUT
RUSSIA'S NUCLEAR WEAPONS ON HIGH ALERT.
>> WE SHOULD BE VERY CONCERNED AND VERY VIGILANT.
>> THE OLD SOVIET UNION USED TO THREATEN THE USE OF NUCLEAR
WEAPONS. BUT VLADIMIR PUTIN IS A CRAZY
MAN.
>> HE'S SABER-RATTLING WITH NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
>> HOW BAD DOES THIS GET? [ SPEAKING FOREIGN LANGUAGE ]
>>> DO YOU FEEL OUTNUMBERED?
>> NO.
>> THERE'S SO MUCH ESTROGEN AT THIS TABLE.
>> I FEEL IT.
>> IT'S BEAUTIFUL.
>> I TOTALLY FEEL IT.
>> SO MARK McKINNON, THE SPIRITUAL CENTER OF THIS
PROGRAM.
>> AND MORAL CENTER.
>> HAS TESTED POSITIVE FOR COVID.
OUR FIRST CONCERN IS HIS HEALTH.
>> OH, HE'S GOING TO FINE. HE'S STRONG LIKE THE LION.
THIS IS THE FIRST EPISODE HE'S
MISSED. OVER SEVEN YEARS, NEVER MISSED
AN EPISODE. IT WON'T BE THE SAME WITHOUT
MARK AND CAT McKINNON.
>> LOVE YOU, SEE YOU NEXT WEEKEND, CAT.
>> WE'RE IN WEEK FOUR OF THE WAR.
IT'S ALMOST A MONTH. THE STATE OF THE WAR IS KIND OF
FUCKED.
>> BECAUSE WE'RE IN A STALEMATE, WHICH MEANS EVERYTHING AND
NOTHING AT THE SAME TIME. IT'S BLOODIER, DARKER, IT'S LIKE
WORLD WAR I, RIGHT? LIKE THIS KIND OF TRENCH WARFARE
WHERE NO SIDE MAKES ANY PARTICULAR GAINS AND AT THE SAME
TIME, THE CASUALTY RATE CONTINUES TO SKYROCKET.
>> IT'S NOT LIKE ALL THE MILITARY ANALYSTS WHO LOOK AT
LIKE WHAT PUTIN WAS TRYING TO DO, WHICH WAS A SHOCK AND AWE
CAMPAIGN. COME IN, VERY QUICKLY, TAKE
KYIV, TAKE KHARKIV, INSTALL A PUPPET GOVERNMENT QUICKLY, BOOM,
BOOM, BOOM, IN AND OUT. THAT DIDN'T HAPPEN.
PUTIN IS DESPERATE.
>> WE HAVE TO CONTEMPLATE WHAT IT MEANS FOR PUTIN TO COME UP
WITH A PLAN "B."
>> HE HAS THOUSANDS OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
IT'S ALWAYS BEEN THERE. PUTIN KIND OF ANNOUNCES WHAT
HE'S OPEN TO.
>> HE PUTS HIS NUCLEAR FORCES ON SPECIAL COMBAT DUTY.
THIS IS A GUY NOT EXACTLY BEING SHY ABOUT HIS POTENTIAL
INTENTIONS.
>> THE SMARTED
>> THE SMART THING NOW IS TO TAKE EVERYTHING HE SAYS
SERIOUSLY.
>> HYPERSONIC MISSILES, THE UNITED STATES WILL READILY ADMIT
TO YOU THEY DO NOT HAVE THE ABILITY TO THAT DOWN AND THEY
CAN BE ARMED WITH NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
>> PEOPLE AROUND THE WORLD SAY THAT'S A NUCLEAR FLEX.
IT'S NOT THAT HE'S GOING TO LAUNCH A MISSILE AT NEW YORK OR
LONDON. HE KNOWS THAT ENDS IN A GIANT
BALL OF FIRE. BUT IT'S NOT TOTALLY CLEAR, IF
HE DECIDES TO NUKE KHARKIV, NATO HAS NO OBLIGATION TO DO
ANYTHING. WOULD THE U.S. ESCALATE OR NOT?
>> WE'RE TALKING ABOUT TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS THAT HAVE THE
FRACTION OF THE DAMAGE OF THE BOMBS DROPPED ON HIROSHIMA AND
NAGASAKI BUT AT THE SAME TIME PROVIDE THE SORT OF RAMPING-UP
THAT EVERYTHING IS TERRIFIED OF IN THIS INVASION.
>> IT IS SO UNLIKELY THE MAN IS GOING TO USE NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
BUT IT'S NOT ZERO CHANCE THAT HE'S GOING TO USE THEM IN THESE
CIRCUMSTANCES. PEOPLE KNOW PUTIN, HAVE STUDIED
PUTIN, HAVE WATCHED PUTIN, WITH CREDIBILITY, ARE ALL ON THE SAME
PAGE. NOT THAT HE'S NOT GOING TO USE
NUCLEAR WEAPONS BUT PLEASE DO NOT ASSUME HE'S NOT GOING TO USE
NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
>> THAT'S WHY HE MARCHED INTO UKRAINE BECAUSE HE HAD THAT
THREAT HANGING OVER EVERYONE.
>> PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN IS GOING TO FLY TO BRUSSELS.
>> NATO IS AT THE CENTER OF THE UNIVERSITY REINCE.
JOE BIDEN IS GOING THERE AND GOING TO POLAND.
>> THE TASK AT HAND IS TO ANSWER SOME REALLY URGENT QUESTIONS.
NUMBER ONE, WHAT DOES THE WEST DO, WHAT DOES NATO DO, WHAT DOES
BIDEN DO IF PUTIN DECIDES TO LAUNCH A WOMEN WOMEN'S ATTACK?
LAUNCH A WOMEN WOMEN'S AT-- LAU NUCLEAR WEAPONS ATTACK?
BIDEN IS STANDING AT THE PRECIPICE OF A RED LINE.
>> THE U.S. HAS BEEN CAUTIOUS ABOUT GOING TOO FAR IN
SUPPORTING UKRAINE. IF YOU DON'T MAKE PUTIN PAY A
HIGH ENOUGH PRICE, WHAT ARE YOU UNLEASHING IN THE WORLD FOR
OTHER NUCLEAR POWERS, WHAT THEY WILL EXPECT THE WEST TO
TOLERATE?
>> IF YOU'RE A ROGUE STATE WATCHING ALL OF THIS INFOLD, WHY
WOULDN'T YOU DEVELOP A NUCLEAR ARSENAL?
>> IN THE DETERRENCE GAME, IF YOU DON'T DRAW RED LINES, YOU'RE
KIND OF OPENING THE DOOR AND EMBOLDENING PUTIN, WELL, I DON'T
KNOW WHAT THE PRICE WOULD BE HERE.
>> WHAT'S SO DANGEROUS IN THIS CONFLICT IS YOU USUALLY HAVE AN
AGREED-UPON RED LINE, WE KNOW IF WE DO X, Y WILL HAPPEN.
BUT IN THIS INSANITY, PUTIN HAS HIS RED LINE AND WE HAVE OURS.
>> ALL OF A SUDDEN WHAT WAS ONCE UNTHINKABLE IS NOW THINKABLE AND
WE'RE SITTING HERE, ALL OF US, STARING DOWN THE BARREL OF THE
NUCLEAR OPTION.
>> SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL AT THE PENTAGON SAYS RUSSIAN FORCES
ARE NOW STALLED AND DESPERATE TO GAIN MOMENT.
>> WHAT WILL THE KREMLIN DO AS IT CONTINUALLY FACES THESE
BATTLEFIELD DEFEATS?
>> A SPOKESPERSON SAID TODAY VLADIMIR PUTIN IS READY TO
DEPLOY NUCLEAR ARMS IN CASE RUSSIA FEELS THREATENED.
>> IF IT IS AN EXISTENTIAL THREAT FOR OUR COUNTRY, THEN IT
CAN BE USED IN ACCORDANCE WITH OUR CONSTANT.
>> ARE YOU CONCERNED?
>> WE MONITOR THIS AS BEST WE CAN EVERY DAY.
WE HAVEN'T SEEN ANYTHING THAT WOULD LEAD US TO CONCLUDE THAT
WE NEED TO CHANGE OUR STRATEGIC DETERRENT POSTURE.
OKAY, THANKS, EVERYBODY.
>> HELLO.
>> HAVE A SEAT.
>> SIT DOWN?
>> THAT'S WHERE IT WILL BE BEST.
>> WHATEVER YOU WANT, MA'AM.
>> YOU HAVE A VERY SPECIFIC ANSWER THAT YOU GIVE WHENEVER
YOU'RE ASKED ABOUT RUSSIA USING THE NUCLEAR OPTION.
>> WE REMAIN CONFIDENT IN OUR STRATEGIC POSTURE.
SECRETARY AUSTIN IS COMFORTABLE AND CONFIDENT WITH OUR STRATEGIC
DETERRENT POSTURE AS IT IS.
>> YOU HAVE TO BE PARTICULARLY CAREFUL ABOUT HOW YOU DEAL WITH
THAT, IS THAT RIGHT?
>> WHAT I THINK ABOUT IS THE MULTIPLE AUDIENCES WE'RE
COMMUNICATING TO. IT'S NOT JUST MY MOM.
IT'S NOT JUST THE AMERICAN PEOPLE.
IT'S OUR NATO ALLIES, THE UKRAINIAN PEOPLE, THE UKRAINIAN
LEADERSHIP, AND THE KREMLIN. THERE'S AN OPPORTUNITY TO SEND A
VERY CLEAR MESSAGE ON WHERE THE ADMINISTRATION IS IN SIMPLE
ENOUGH LANGUAGE THAT MULTIPLE AUDIENCES CAN INTERPRET IT
APPROPRIATELY. WE WANT THE AMERICAN PEOPLE TO
KNOW WHERE WE ARE RELATING TO NATO.
>> I'VE SEEN BOTH YOU AND THE SECRETARY HAVE SPECULATED, WHY
WOULD RUSSIA FEEL THE NEED TO USE HYPERSONIC MISSILES?
THESE ARE MISSILES THAT COULD BE ARMED WITH NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
>> RIGHT.
>> ARE YOU RAISING THE QUESTION BECAUSE YOU'RE CONCERNED THAT'S
WHAT THIS IS ABOUT?
>> IT COULD BE THAT IN THE PRECISION GUIDED MUNITIONS
INVENTORY THAT THEY'RE HAVING PROBLEMS AND WE DO THINK THERE
IS A DECREMENT THERE. MAYBE THEY DID IT TO SEND A
MESSAGE TO THE UKRAINIANS ABOUT LEVERAGE AT THE NEGOTIATING
TABLE. MAYBE IT WAS A MESSAGE TO NATO
AND THE UNITED STATES, HEY, WE'VE GOT SOMETHING HERE THAT WE
CAN USE EFFECTIVELY. IT'S NOT EXACTLY CLEAR, BECAUSE
WE'RE NOT IN MR. PUTIN'S BRAIN AND WE DON'T HAVE INSIGHT INTO
THE RUSSIAN PLANNING PROCESS.
>> IT FEELS LIKE WE'RE ENTERING A NEW, MORE UNCERTAIN PHASE
OF --
>> YEAH.
>> -- WHAT THEY'RE GOING TO BE CAPABLE OF.
>> WE THINK THEY WERE OVERCONFIDENT, THAT THEY DID NOT
PROPERLY FACTOR IN THEIR OWN INTELLIGENCE ABOUT WHAT THEY
WERE GOING TO FACE ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THAT BORDER, AND NOW
THEY'RE FRUSTRATED. AND SO WHAT WE'RE SEEING IS
REALLY REACTIONARY BOMBARDMENT AND LONG RANGE FIRES INTO CITY
AND TARGETING OF CIVILIANS DELIBERATELY TO TRY TO BRING
UKRAINE TO ITS KNEES. IT'S A REACTION TO THE
FRUSTRATION THEY'RE HAVING. TO CALL IT A PHASE WOULD BE
GIVING THEM TOO MUCH CREDIT FOR THINKING THIS THROUGH.
>> WE HEAR THIS DISCUSSION ABOUT CHEMICAL WEAPONS, ABOUT POSSIBLE
NUCLEAR ATTACKS. WE HEARD PRESIDENT BIDEN SAYING
TODAY IT'S A REAL CONCERN.
>> THERE'S BEEN AN EXTRAORDINARY AMOUNT OF PLANNING AND PLOTTING
AND WAR GAMING AND SCHEMING ALL THROUGH THE COLD WAR AND AFTER
THE COLD WAR AROUND WHAT NUCLEAR WAR MIGHT LOOK LIKE.
>> DIAN NIAN DEVOTED HIS LIFE TO THE STUDY OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS,
DISARMAMENT. A COUPLE OF YEARS AGO
RESEARCHERS IN PRINCETON DID A SIMULATION WHERE THEY MODELLED A
SITUATION VERY SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE'RE IN RIGHT NOW, A
CONVENTIONAL WAR IN EUROPE, INVOLVING RUSSIA ON ONE SIDE AND
NATO ON THE OTHER SIDE IN WHICH THE RUSSIANS DECIDE TO USE A
SINGLE NUCLEAR WARHEAD AND THEY LOOKED AT WHAT WOULD HAPPEN.
>> THE SIMULATION IS NOT SOMETHING YOU GUYS CREATED
BECAUSE OF THE RUSSIA/UKRAINE SITUATION.
GOING BACK AT LEAST A COUPLE OF YEARS.
WHAT MADE IT EVEN MORE DANGEROUS EVEN PRIOR TO THE YEAR?
>> AT THE END OF THE COLD WAR WE SAW A SERIES OF PROCESSES
REDUCING THE NUMBER OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND IT LOOKED LIKE WE
WERE FINALLY STARTING TO GET RID OF THEM UNTIL THE EARLY 2000s
WHERE THE UNITED STATES BECAME THE FIRST COUNTRY TO WITHDRAW
FROM A NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL TREATY.
THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION WITHDREW FROM THE ANTIBALLISTIC MISSILE
TREATY. WHEN WE GO TO TO THE TRUMP
ADMINISTRATION, THERE WAS JUST A WHOLESALE RETREAT FROM THE
PRACTICE OF RESTRAINT. THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION
CATEGORICALLY AND EXPLICITLY EXPANDED THE CONDITIONS UNDER
WHICH THE UNITED STATES WOULD USE NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
THE UNITED STATES, RUSSIA, CHINA, THEY WERE ALL MOVING IN
THE WRONG DIRECTION. AND SO WE TRIED TO BUILD A
SIMULATION ON WHAT A NUCLEAR WAR MIGHT ACTUALLY LOOK LIKE.
>> THE NOTION THAT RUSSIA MIGHT USE NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN A CERTAIN
CIRCUMSTANCE IS PARTLY REINFORCED BY THE PERCEPTIONS OF
PUTIN. THAT'S KIND OF KEY TO HOW THEY
WORK, RIGHT, THE OTHER SIDE HAS TO BELIEVE YOU'RE JUST CRAZY
ENOUGH TO USE THEM.
>> THAT'S ONE OF THE REASONS COUNTRIES HAVE NUCLEAR WEAPONS,
IS TO GIVE THEM THAT KIND OF STRATEGIC AUTONOMY.
FOR PUTIN IT'S NOT ABOUT BEING THREATENED.
IT'S ABOUT BEING DOMINANT.
>> YES.
>> I HAVE A NUCLEAR SHIELD, THEREFORE GET OUT OF MY WAY AND
I CAN FIGHT WHATEVER WAR I WANT.
>> PLEASE.
>> WE START WITH THE PRESUMPTION OF A CONVENTIONAL CONFLICT.
>> SIMILAR TO WHAT WE'RE SEEING NOW IN EUROPE.
>> YES. IT BEGINS WITH THE RUSSIANS
LAUNCHING A NUCLEAR WARNING SHOT INTO POLAND.
>> WHAT WOULD THAT BE IN THIS CONTEXT?
>> YOU'RE NOT INTENDING TO DESTROY A CITY.
THIS IS TO TELL YOU TO BACK OFF. SO SENIOR LEVEL DECISIONMAKERS
WITH NATO DECIDE WE CAN'T JUST SEEM TO BE INTIMIDATED AND WE
HAVE TO RESPOND IN KIND. AND THERE YOU SEE RETALIATORY
STRIKE BY NATO USING A U.S. JET FIGHTER FROM A BASE IN GERMANY.
>> THIS GOES FROM ONE NUCLEAR DEVICE IN BOTH DIRECTIONS, ALL
OF A SUDDEN WE HAVE THIS. RUSSIA BASICALLY SAYS, OKAY,
NATO HAS NOW GONE NUCLEAR ON US, WE HAVE TO TAKE OUT ALL THE
BASES.
>> WE DIDN'T PRESUME THEY WOULD DIRECTLY ATTACK THE UNITED
STATES BUT THAT THEY WOULD GO FOR WHERE THESE WEAPONS CAME
FROM.
>> NATO RESPONDS WITH 180 NUCLEAR WARHEADS BY AIRCRAFT.
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT THREE HOURS, WE HAVE FULL SCALE
TACTICAL NUCLEAR WAR IN EUROPE WITH 480 NUCLEAR WARHEADS
LAUNCHED.
>> YES. SETTING THE CLOCK ON THIS HAS IN
PART TO DO WITH ALWAYS SEEKING THE ADVANTAGE OF THE FIRST MOVE.
BECAUSE IF YOU'RE SECOND WHEN NUCLEAR WEAPONS ARE THERE THEN
YOU MAY NOT BE ABLE TO RESPOND. THAT'S WHY EVERYTHING GETS SPED
UP IN THIS PROCESS.
>> THE NEXT PHASE IS THE COUNTERFORCE, TARGETING EACH
OTHER'S BASES.
>> THE U.S. LAUNCHES STRATEGIC NUCLEAR WEAPONS, GOING OVER THE
POLES AND ATTACKING TARGETS ACROSS RUSSIA.
THE RUSSIANS CAN SEE THAT THE MISSILES ARE COMING, AND SO THEY
LAUNCH.
>> MISSILES HEADED TOWARDS NOW CIVILIAN TARGETS.
IF I WENT 91.5 MILLION IMMEDIATE CASUALTIES, 34 MILLION DEAD,
57.4 MILLION INJURIES, AND THIS IS OVER THE SPAN OF ABOUT THE
AMOUNT OF TIME IN BETWEEN MY BREAKFAST AND MY LUNCH.
>> IN 2018, THE HEAD OF STRATEGIC COMMAND IN CHARGE OF
ALL U.S. NUCLEAR WEAPONS ACTUALLY SAID IN PUBLIC, EVERY
NUCLEAR WAR EXERCISE THAT THE UNITED STATES STRATEGIC COMMAND
DOES, IT GOES BAD. IT ENDS IN GLOBAL THERMONUCLEAR
WAR. EVERY TIME.
>> IS IT NOT A CRAZY THING TO WATCH THIS AND THINK, THAT'S
WHAT EITHER WOULD HAPPEN OR MIGHT WELL HAPPEN IF PUTIN WERE
TO DECIDE TO DO THAT TOMORROW?
>> BOTH SIDES HAVE BUILT WHAT YOU COULD CALL EXTERMINIST
MACHINES, MACHINES FOR MASS KILLING.
WHAT YOU HIT AND HOW YOU HIT AND WHAT YOU PREPARE FOR IS ALL
BUILT INTO THESE MACHINES. THAT THEY ARE ACTUALLY NOW
INTERLOCKING AS THEY HAVE BEEN THROUGHOUT THE COLD WAR.
AND THE LOGIC OF THESE MACHINES IS ONE THAT GENERATES THIS
OUTCOME. BUT IT IS ONLY A LOGIC, AND IT
IS ONLY A MACHINE. THERE ARE THINGS THAT COULD
HAPPEN THAT STOP ANY OF THIS FROM HAPPENING.
>> YES.
>> AND THERE ARE THINGS THAT COULD MAKE IT HAPPEN EVEN THOUGH
NOBODY INTENDS FOR ANY OF IT TO HAPPEN.
>> YES.
>> SO I DON'T WANT TO MAKE IT SOUND LIKE IT'S KIND OF
DETERMINED.
>> IT'S A PERFECTLY PLAUSIBLE OUTCOME, ONCE YOU START DOWN
THIS PATH THINGS START TO HAPPEN VERY FAST.
>> VERY FAST. BUT PEOPLE CAN CHOOSE
DIFFERENTLY. IT'S STILL NOT TOO LATE.
THE BOMBS HAVEN'T GONE OFF YET.
>> JOE BIDEN LANDED IN BRUSSELS IN JUST THE LAST HOUR, STARTING
A HIGH STAKES, THREE-DAY TRIP OVERSEAS.
>> IT'S MISSION, RAMPING UP PRESSURE ON VLADIMIR PUTIN TO
STOP THE BRUTAL SIEGE OF UKRAINE.
>> SO AFTER A DAY OF RUSSIAN SABER-RATTLING ALL OVER STATE TV
WITH A MEMBER OF THE DUMA TALKING ABOUT THE FACT THAT
RUSSIA WOULD NUKE WARSAW IF NATO WERE TO SEND A PEACEKEEPING
FORCE. [ SPEAKING FOREIGN LANGUAGE ]
THE FIRST HINT OF HOW NATO IS GOING TO HANDLE THIS PUBLICLY IS
THIS PRESS CONFERENCE WE'RE WAITING FOR WITH THE NATO
SECRETARY GENERAL. HERE COMES STOLTENBERG.
>> THE PEOPLE OF UKRAINE ARE FIGHTING FOR THEIR FUTURE.
WE STAND WITH THEM. OUR TOP MILITARY COMMANDER,
GENERAL WALTERS, HAS ACTIVATED NATO'S BIOLOGICAL, RADIOLOGICAL,
AND NUCLEAR DEFENSE MEASURES. WE'RE TAKING MEASURES TO SUPPORT
UKRAINE AND DEFEND OURSELVES. [ SPEAKING FOREIGN LANGUAGE ]
>> WE WILL SEE PRESIDENT BIDEN, HE'S GOING TO GIVE US A PRESS
CONFERENCE AND DEBRIEF REPORTERS ON THESE CRITICAL THOUGHTS
THEY'VE HELD BEHIND THE SCENES HERE.
>> TODAY MARKS ONE MONTH SINCE RUSSIA BEGAN ITS BRUTAL INVASION
OF UKRAINE. NATO HAS NEVER, NEVER BEEN MORE
UNITED THAN IT IS TODAY. PUTIN IS GETTING EXACTLY THE
OPPOSITE OF WHAT HE INTENDED TO HAVE AS A CONSEQUENCE OF GOING
INTO UKRAINE.
>> PRESIDENT BIDEN AND U.S. ALLIES DRAW A NEW LINE AGAINST
RUSSIA, VOWING NATO WOULD RESPOND IF VLADIMIR PUTIN USES
CHEMICAL WEAPONS IN UKRAINE.
>> A BIG QUESTION HAS BEEN WHETHER OR NOT IT WOULD CHANGE
THIS CALCULUS HE HAS ABOUT NO MILITARY INTERVENTION IN
UKRAINE.
>> WHAT ABOUT THIS? THAT'S THE GO-FOR.
>> THE LEFT HOOK.
>> THE LEFT HOOK, RIGHT.
>> SOME PEOPLE HAVE DRAWN SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THE GULF
WAR AND WHAT WE MAY BE FACING IN UKRAINE.
>> WELL, YOU KNOW, I USED TO TELL THE MEDIA THAT I NEVER TOLD
THE TRUTH ABOUT THE END THAT HAVE CONFLICT AND WHY SHOULD I
START NOW?
>> JAKE SULLIVAN SAID AT THE NATO SUMMIT YESTERDAY THAT THE
PRESIDENT, WITH THE NATO LEADERS, WOULD BE DISCUSSING THE
POTENTIAL OF A NUCLEAR ATTACK. WHAT MIGHT THEY HAVE BEEN
TALKING ABOUT DOING AS A RESPONSE?
>> WELL, LOOK, YOU KNOW, I'VE BEEN A, QUOTE, EXPERT ON WEAPONS
OF MASS DESTRUCTIONS FOR THE LAST 40 YEARS.
IF THE RUSSIANS DO AN UNRESTRICTED FIRST STRIKE,
TRYING TO KNOCK OUT OUR NUCLEAR CAPABILITY, 72 HOURS LATER, THE
RUSSIAN FEDERATION WOULD BE VAPORIZED.
YOU CANNOT LOGICALLY ENTERTAIN A STRATEGIC EXCHANGE.
SO I DON'T BELIEVE THERE'S ANY POSSIBILITY OF A NUCLEAR WAR
STARTING, UNLESS PUTIN PERSONALLY LOSES HIS SANITY, NOT
TO BE IGNORED AS A POSSIBILITY.
>> A SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL SAID THIS WEEK, ANY USE
OF A SMALL TACTICAL NUCLEAR BOMB BY RUSSIA, EVEN INSIDE UKRAINE
AND NOT DIRECTED AT A NATO MEMBER, WOULD MEAN THAT ALL BETS
ARE OFF ON THE UNITED STATES AND NATO STAYING OUT OF THE WAR.
>> AND BY THE WAY, WHAT WOULD THE TARGET BE IN THE UKRAINE?
YOU KNOW, MILITARY GUY, TAKE ASIDE POLITICAL OBJECTIVES, WHAT
GOOD WOULD YOU POSSIBLE DO WITH SUCH A WEAPON?
>> THAT MEANS --
>> IT MIGHT BE HALF THE FORCE OF THE EXPLOSION THAT KILLED
100,000 PEOPLE IN AN INSTANT IN NAGASAKI AND HIROSHIMA.
WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO DO, ATTACK A CIVIL POPULATION CENTER?
YOU'RE GOING TO GO AFTER A BATTALION YOU'VE LOCATED?
AT SOME POINT WE HAVE TO CALL HIS BLUFF ON NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
>> THERE IS A THEORY, ESCALATE TO DE-ESCALATE, HOW IN A
SITUATION WHERE THE RUSSIANS ARE STALLED LIKE THEY ARE NOW, THEY
MAY TAKE A VERY AGGRESSIVE WMD ACTION TO SORT OF SHAKE UP THE
SITUATION.
>> I THINK PUTIN PUFFED HIMSELF UP AND HE'S TRYING TO RESCUE A
CONVENTIONAL INVASION THAT'S GOING BADLY BY THREATENING
NUCLEAR WEAPONS. HIS MILITARY IS OF MODEST
DIMENSIONS AND CAPABILITIES. THEY'RE NOT A SERIOUS, HUGE
MILITARY POWER, EXCEPT NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
>> IT WAS REPORTED IN "THE TIMES" EARLIER IN THE WEEK THAT
THE ADMINISTRATION HAD ESTABLISHED A TIGER TEAM THAT IS
PLAYING OUT DIFFERENT OPTIONS SHOULD THERE BE A WMD ATTACK.
>> WE SHOULDN'T EVER SAY HERE'S WHAT WE WOULD DO.
WE SHOULD NEVER SAY THAT.
>> ONCE YOU START DESCRIBING WHAT MAY HAPPEN, DOES IT MAKE IT
MORE REAL?
>> I THINK IT MAKES IT MORE SALIENT.
WE'RE RESPONDING TO PUTIN'S NUTTY BEHAVIOR.
HE'S DESPERATE AND AFRAID ABOUT A FAILING OPTION AND USING A
NUCLEAR THREAT PUBLICLY TO DETER US.
AND TO SOME EXTENT, IT'S WORKING.
ALL OF US WHO HAVE AN OUNCE OF SENSE SAY, GOSH, WE BETTER BE
CAREFUL HERE. HOWEVER, JENNIFER, I WOULD
ASSERT STRONGLY THAT THE END OF THIS CONFLICT, WE CANNOT ALLOW
PUTIN TO SAY "I WON." IT'S IMPORTANT FOR HIM TO BE
HUMILIATED. WE DO NOT WANT, AT THE END OF
THE DAY, HAVE SOME BLAND AGREEMENT WHERE HE'S OFF THE
HOOK. WE WANT THE RUSSIAN PEOPLE TO
KNOW THIS WAS A DREADFUL, CRIMINAL MISTAKE CAUSED BY PUTIN
HIMSELF.
>> THAT'S IMPORTANT BECAUSE WE NEED TO MAKE SURE THAT RUSSIA
WOULD NOT CONTINUE TO PURSUE --
>> OTHERWISE THIS WILL COME UP AGAIN IN FIVE TO TEN YEARS.
>> WE'RE HERE TO SPEAK WITH ANDRE KOZOROF, THE FIRST FOREIGN
MINISTER FOR THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION AFTER THE DISSOLUTION
OF THE SOVIET UNION. HE HAS LIVED IN AMERICA FOR THE
LAST 12 YEARS. HE CAN'T DISCLOSE WHERE HE LIVES
BECAUSE OF THE THREAT OF ASSASSINATION BECAUSE HE'S SUCH
A VOCAL CRITIC OF PUTIN. BUT HE STILL UNDERSTANDS
INTRICATELY THE POWER GRID INSIDE RUSSIA.
LET'S JUST START WITH PUTIN. THERE IS WIDESPREAD CONCERN THAT
BECAUSE RUSSIA AND ITS ARMY ARE NOT FARING BETTER IN THIS
INVASION, THAT PUTIN'S BACK IS AGAINST THE WALL AND SO HE IS
READY TO DEPLOY PERHAPS NOT A FULL NUCLEAR WARHEAD THE SIZE OF
WHICH WE SAW IN HIROSHIMA AND NAGASAKI.
>> MINI NUKES, RIGHT?
>> MINI NUKES, TACTICAL NUKES. DO YOU THINK THAT'S A
POSSIBILITY?
>> I THINK IT'S VERY, VERY LITTLE POSSIBILITY.
ONE THING TO THREATEN SOMEBODY WITH NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
AND THE OTHER THING IS TO COMMIT SUICIDE.
NONE OF THEM, INCLUDING PUTIN HIMSELF, ARE SUICIDAL.
>> WHAT'S THE POINT OF IT? HE'S ALWAYS SUGGESTING THIS
NUCLEAR OPTION.
>> OF COURSE.
>> IS THAT TO CURTAIL THE U.S. FROM TAKING A MORE ACTIVE,
DIRECT ROLE IN THE CONFLICT?
>> OF COURSE. INTIMIDATION.
>> IT'S NOTHING BUT INTIMIDATION?
>> OF COURSE NOT. BUT NUCLEAR WEAPONS ARE WEAPONS
OF INTIMIDATION ON ONE SIDE AND DETERRENCE ON THE OTHER SIDE.
BUT DETERRENCE MEANS THAT YOU ARE ASSURED THAT THERE WILL BE
RESPONSE IN KIND. DURING THE CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS,
THAT NIGHT WHEN IT ALL HAPPENED, MY PARENTS DID NOT SLEEP.
MOSCOW DID NOT SLEEP. EVERYBODY WAS GUESSING WHETHER
THEY WILL BE ALIVE IN AN HOUR OR IN THE MORNING.
KHRUSHCHEV TRIED TO SCARE JFK. BUT JFK WAS ABSOLUTELY CLEAR
ABOUT THAT, THAT THE MOMENT YOU ATTACK US, WE WILL RESPOND.
THE POSTURE OF THE WEST SHOULD BE THE SAME.
YOU USE IT, WE USE IT, IMMEDIATELY, PROPORTIONATELY.
AND NATO AND, UNFORTUNATELY, UNITED STATES, THEY ARE AFRAID
OF NUCLEAR WAR, AND THEY SAY, WHAT IF PUTIN USES A MINI NUKE?
THEY SHOULD COME WITH AN ANSWER, NOT WITH QUESTION.
THE PROPER FORMULATION SHOULD BE, WE WILL USE THE SAME MINI
NUKE IN RESPONSE, IMMEDIATELY.
>> SO YOU THINK THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION HAS NOT BEEN
NEARLY EXPLICIT ENOUGH OR PERHAPS AGGRESSIVE ENOUGH IN
RESPONDING TO PUTIN'S PROVOCATION
PROVOCA PROVOCATIONS?
>> POSITIVELY. PRESIDENT BIDEN, WHO I RESPECT,
AND I THINK HE'S A VERY GOOD PRESIDENT, HE THINKS IN HIS
WORLD, THE WORLD OF CIVILIZED BEHAVIOR, AND FOR A CIVILIZED
PERSON IT'S VERY DIFFICULT TO UNDERSTAND A GUY LIKE PUTIN ON
THE OTHER SIDE. FOR THAT GUY, ANY CIVILIZED
BEHAVIOR IS TAKEN AS A SIGN OF WEAKNESS.
AND YOU KNOW WHERE I'M TELLING YOU THAT?
>> WHY?
>> WE'RE THE SAME AGE.
>> PUTIN AND YOU?
>> YES. HE GREW IN ST. PETERSBURG.
I GREW IN MOSCOW. IT WAS FULL OF STREET GANGS AND
CRIME. HE REMEMBERS THAT WHEN THE TWO
STREET GANGS MEET, THE WEAKER ONE, THEY WILL TAKE KNIVES
FIRST, BECAUSE THEY WILL TRY TO SCARE YOU.
AND THEN IF YOU STAND FIRM AND YOU ALSO SAY, WE HAVE KNIVES
TOO, HOW ABOUT THAT, THEN THEY WILL RETREAT.
THAT WAS THE RULE.
>> YOU'RE SAYING THIS IS A STREET FIGHT.
>> EXACTLY.
>> HE'S GOT A KNIFE, YOU NEED TO SHOW HIM YOURS.
>> I HATE TO TELL YOU THAT PUTIN IS VERY CLOSE TO SUCCEED TO
SCARE AMERICA AND NATO, WHICH IS RIDICULOUS.
IT'S LIKE PUSSYCAT SCARING A LION.
>> PRESIDENT BIDEN CONTINUES HIS EUROPEAN TRIP WITH A STOP IN
POLAND.
>> SITTING DOWN WITH THE UKRAINIAN FOREIGN MINISTER, MR.
BIDEN WILL ALSO SPEAK WITH THE POLISH PRESIDENT AND MEET
UKRAINIAN REFUGEES.
>> THE RUSSIAN MILITARY HAS STRUCK LVIV.
THIS STRIKE IS VERY CLOSE TO THE POLISH BORDER.
PRESIDENT BIDEN IS IN WARSAW FOR WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE IS CALLING
A MAJOR SPEECH.
>> LET THERE BE NO DOUBT THAT THIS WAR HAS ALREADY BEEN A
STRATEGIC FAILURE FOR RUSSIA. AND IT'S PUTIN, IT'S VLADIMIR
PUTIN WHO IS TO BLAME, PERIOD. DON'T EVEN THINK ABOUT GOING ON
ONE SINGLE INCH OF NATO TERRITORY.
FOR GOD'S SAKE, THIS MAN CANNOT REMAIN IN POWER.
GOD BLESS YOU ALL AND MAY GOD DEFEND OUR FREEDOM.