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♪ ♪

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♪ ♪

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♪ ♪

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[CHEERS AND APPLAUSE]

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>> John: WELCOME, WELCOME,

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WELCOME TO "LAST WEEK TONIGHT"!

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I'M JOHN OLIVER.

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THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING

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US.

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WE ARE BACK!

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AND IT HAS BEEN A BUSY WEEK.

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ERIC SWALWELL'S POLITICAL CAREER

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JUSTIFIABLY IMPLODED.

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A JURY FOUND THAT LIVENATION

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RUNS A MONOPOLY, WHICH IS NO

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SURPRISE TO ANYONE WHO'S EVER

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HAD TO DEAL WITH THEM.

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AND HUNGARY'S VIKTOR ORBAN WAS

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KICKED OUT OF OFFICE, WITH ONE

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PARTICULAR MOMENT IN THE

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AFTERMATH CATCHING EVERYONE'S

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ATTENTION.

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>> THE SHACKLES ARE OFF, AND

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THEY ARE DANCING TO A DIFFERENT

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TUNE.

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THIS VIRAL VIDEO OF HUNGARY'S

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EXPECTED NEW HEALTH MINISTER

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ENCAPSULATING THE PARTY MOOD.

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>> John: I LOVE IT.

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CELEBRATING AN AUTOCRAT'S

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DOWNFALL BY DANCING LIKE YOUR

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DRUNKEST UNCLE DURING THE LAST

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20 MINUTES OF A WEDDING IS

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INCREDIBLE.

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AND WHILE I'M HAPPY FOR HUNGARY,

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I'M ALSO A BIT JEALOUS.

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BECAUSE THEY'RE GETTING THIS GUY

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AS THEIR HEALTH MINISTER, WHILE

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WE'RE STUCK WITH THIS BEEFY

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CREEP WHO JUST THIS WEEK WE

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LEARNED ONCE CUT THE PENIS OFF

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A ROAD-KILLED RACCOON.

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AS A PURELY VIBES-BASED MATCHUP,

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WE HAVE LOST HEAVILY.

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MEANWHILE, OUR TENTATIVE

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CEASEFIRE WITH IRAN SEEMS TO BE

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HOLDING SO FAR, THOUGH AS OF

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TAPING, THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ

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REMAINS IN CHAOS, WITH "DUELING

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BLOCKADES" FROM THE U.S. AND

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IRAN CAUSING WIDESPREAD

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CONFUSION.

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EVEN THE POPE'S NOW SEEMED TO

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CRITICIZE THE WAR, SAYING QUOTE,

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WHOEVER IS A DISCIPLE OF PEACE

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WILL NOT STAND ON THE SIDE.

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IT'S A SERIES OF STATEMENTS THAT

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MADE TRUMP LOSE HIS SHIT.

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WHICH LED TO HIM POSTING

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THIS SCREED, WHICH BEGAN WITH,

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"POPE LEO IS WEAK ON CRIME."

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WHICH IN TERMS OF INSULTS, JUST

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DOESN'T WORK.

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IT'S LIKE SAYING THIS POSSUM IS

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WEAK ON BALKAN GEOGRAPHY.

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OKAY, BUT WHO GIVES A SHIT?

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IT'S NOT A POSSUM'S JOB TO

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CORRECTLY PLACE BOSNIA AND

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HERZEGOVINA ON A MAP.

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HER JOB'S TO EAT GARBAGE, HANG

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UPSIDE DOWN AND BY THIS

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EVIDENCE, FUCK.

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BUT TRUMP WASN'T DONE.

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BECAUSE HE THEN POSTED THIS

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IMAGE, WHICH UNDERSTANDABLY

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GENERATED FIERCE BACKLASH.

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AND HIS EXCUSE WAS PRETTY WEAK.

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>> TONIGHT, PRESIDENT TRUMP IS

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DEFENDING HIS SOCIAL MEDIA POST

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OF THIS A.I. GENERATED IMAGE

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THAT DEPICTS HIM AS

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JESUS CHRIST.

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>> I DID POST IT AND I THOUGHT

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IT WAS ME AS A DOCTOR, AND HAD

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TO DO WITH RED CROSS.

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THERE'S A RED CROSS WORKER THERE

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WHICH WE SUPPORT.

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>> John: OH, THAT MAKES SENSE --

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A DOCTOR.

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YOU KNOW HOW WHEN YOU GO TO THE

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DOCTOR, AND YOU GET CHECKED IN

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BY A NURSE AND A FEW BALD

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EAGLES, AND THEN THE DOCTOR

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COMES IN AND HE'S WEARING AN

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ANCIENT TUNIC, AND SAYS, "WE'RE

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GOING TO GET YOU STARTED ON

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ANTIBIOTICS AND ON ORBS OF LIGHT

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BORNE FROM MY VERY SKIN.

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TAKE THEM WITH FOOD."

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YOU KNOW, THE DOCTOR.

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MEANWHILE, CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE

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OF ALL THIS WAS J.D. VANCE --

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WHO ACTUALLY HAS A NEW BOOK

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COMING OUT THAT'S LITERALLY

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ABOUT HIS DECISION TO CONVERT TO

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CATHOLICISM, WITH -- FUN FACT --

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A STOCK PHOTO OF A METHODIST

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CHURCH ON THE COVER.

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NOW, WHEN PRESSED ON THE POPE'S

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REMARKS, VANCE TOOK A BOLD

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SWING.

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>> WHEN THE WHEN THE POPE SAYS

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THAT GOD IS NEVER ON THE SIDE OF

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THOSE WHO WIELD THE SWORD, THERE

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IS A THOUSAND-YEAR MORE THAN A

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THOUSAND-YEAR TRADITION OF JUST

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WAR THEORY.

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OKAY?

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NOW, WE CAN OF COURSE HAVE

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DISAGREEMENTS ABOUT WHETHER THIS

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OR THAT CONFLICT IS JUST, BUT I

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THINK THAT IT'S IMPORTANT IN THE

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SAME WAY THAT IT'S IMPORTANT FOR

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THE VICE PRESIDENT OF

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UNITED STATES TO BE CAREFUL WHEN

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I TALK ABOUT MATTERS OF PUBLIC

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POLICY.

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I THINK IT'S VERY VERY IMPORTANT

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FOR THE POPE TO BE CAREFUL WHEN

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HE TALKS ABOUT MATTERS OF

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THEOLOGY.

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>> John: YEAH, THAT'S J.D. VANCE

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DOUCHESPLAINING THEOLOGY TO THE

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POPE.

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WHICH IS OBJECTIVELY CRAZY.

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IT'D BE LIKE ME EXPLAINING TO

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J.D. VANCE WHERE THE CLIT IS ON

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A TOGO SECTIONAL.

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WHY WOULD I EVEN TRY TO DO THAT?

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HE'S SPENT HIS LIFE DEVOTED TO

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THIS VERY SUBJECT.

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I'M OUT OF MY LANE THERE!

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ALSO, "BE CAREFUL?"

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THE POPE'S GOT A LIFETIME GIG.

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HE DOESN'T NEED TO BE CAUTIOUS

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ABOUT WHAT HE SAYS.

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HE COULD START TWEETING "WHERE'S

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THE ALBUM" AT RIHANNA EVERY DAY

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FOR THE REST OF HIS LIFE AND

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THAT STILL WOULDN'T CHANGE THE

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FACT HE'S CONSIDERED THE VICAR

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OF CHRIST.

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LITERALLY THE ONLY THING HE

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SHOULD PROBABLY "BE CAREFUL

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ABOUT" IS NOT MEETING WITH

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J.D. VANCE BECAUSE,

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HISTORICALLY, THAT'S BEEN FATAL

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FOR POPES.

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BUT INCREDIBLY THE PRESIDENT

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STILL WASN'T DONE.

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HE REPOSTED AN AI IMAGE OF JESUS

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HUGGING HIM, WHICH HAD THE

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CAPTION "I WAS NEVER A VERY

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RELIGIOUS MAN, BUT DOESN'T IT

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SEEM, WITH ALL THESE SATANIC,

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DEMONIC, CHILD SACRIFICING

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MONSTERS BEING EXPOSED, THAT GOD

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MIGHT BE PLAYING HIS TRUMP

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CARD!"

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WHICH, FOR SOMEONE WHO WAS

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REPEATEDLY PHOTOGRAPHED WITH

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SOCIETY'S BUZZIEST

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CHILD-SACRIFICING MONSTER, IS A

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BOLD THING TO REPOST.

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AND ON THURSDAY, HE COULDN'T

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RESIST TAKING ONE MORE SWING.

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>> BEFORE LEAVING FOR LAS VEGAS

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THE PRESIDENT WAS ASKED ABOUT

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HIS FEUD WITH THE POPE OVER THE

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WAR.

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>> I'M NOT FIGHTING WITH HIM.

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THE POPE MADE A STATEMENT.

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HE SAYS IRAN CAN HAVE A NUCLEAR

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WEAPON.

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I SAY IRAN CANNOT HAVE A NUCLEAR

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WEAPON.

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>> POPE LEO HAS NEVER SAID IRAN

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SHOULD HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON.

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PRESSED ON WHETHER HE'D BE

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WILLING TO MEET WITH THE POPE,

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TRUMP SAID...

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>> I DON'T THINK IT'S NECESSARY.

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>> John: YEAH, I DON'T THINK

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THAT'S NECESSARY EITHER.

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THIS BATTLE OF WORDS HAS NOT

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GONE WELL FOR TRUMP.

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PLUS, I DON'T THINK THEY'D SEE

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EYE TO EYE ON MUCH, OTHER THAN

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MAYBE WHETHER IT'S A GOOD IDEA

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TO "COVER YOUR WORKPLACE IN MORE

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GOLD SHIT THAN SEEMS PHYSICALLY

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POSSIBLE."

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THE POINT IS, TRUMP SEEMS TO BE

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ON AN EPIC RUN OF PICKING LOSING

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FIGHTS, AND WHATEVER AIR OF

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INVINCIBILITY HE HAD LAST YEAR

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IS FADING FAST.

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ALL OF WHICH IS A GOOD REMINDER

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THAT ONE DAY, HE'S GOING TO BE

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GONE, AND ON THAT DAY, IT'LL BE

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TIME TO -- AS I BELIEVE THE

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PHRASE NOW GOES -- DANCE LIKE A

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HUNGARIAN HEALTH MINISTER.

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AND NOW THIS.

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>> Announcer: AND NOW,

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LOCAL PITTSBURGH NEW CASTERS TO

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PRONOUNCE THEIR BALLPARKS NEW

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SNACK.

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>> THE TEAM UNVEILED A NEW

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SLOUGH AT PNC PARK.

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>> IT BRINGS A LITTLE BIT OF NEW

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FLAVOR.

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>> THIS IS A PUERTO RICAN

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INSPIRED HOTDOG.

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THE BORICUA DOG.

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BORICUA DOG.

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>> A BORICUA DOG PART OF THIS IS

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THE PUERTO RICAN INSPIRED HOTDOG

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WITH A PITTSBURGH TWIST.

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>> John: MOVING ON.

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OUR MAIN STORY TONIGHT CONCERNS

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PREDICTION MARKETS -- THE

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FAST-GROWING PLATFORMS WHERE YOU

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CAN BET ON BASICALLY ANYTHING,

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AS THIS TIKTOKKER EXPLAINS.

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>> I'VE BEEN MAKING A TON OF

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MONEY ON THIS APP THAT LETS YOU

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BET ON ANYTHING IN THE WORLD.

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I BET THAT "GTA 6" WON'T BE

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RELEASED ON TIME.

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I BET THAT TRUMP WOULD PARDON

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YOUNG THUG THIS YEAR.

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I'M PREDICTING DELTA AIRLINES

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WILL BE THE FIRST AIRLINE TO

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SELL ZYN ON THEIR FLIGHTS.

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I MADE MONEY OFF TRUMP BEING

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ELECTED PRESIDENT, AND 'CAUSE

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KAMALA HARRIS DIDN'T GO ON

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JOE ROGAN'S PODCAST.

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WHEN I WAS IN NEW YORK, I BET IT

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WOULD RAIN AND IT DID, SO I WON

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MONEY.

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I BET THAT JUSTIN BIEBER WOULD

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GO TO THE DIDDY TRIAL.

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WHEN I WAS IN CHICAGO, I BET ON

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THE TEMPERATURE AND WON.

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>> John: OKAY, SHOUT OUT TO THAT

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00:07:17,028 --> 00:07:18,435
GUY, CADEN BOOTH, FOR HAVING

259
00:07:18,500 --> 00:07:20,439
SUCH A DIVERSE SET OF INTERESTS.

260
00:07:20,560 --> 00:07:21,960
THE FIRST HALF OF HIS BETS ARE

261
00:07:21,960 --> 00:07:23,560
STRICTLY GEN-Z BOY: "GRAND THEFT

262
00:07:23,560 --> 00:07:25,280
AUTO", YOUNG THUG, ZYN, ROGAN.

263
00:07:25,340 --> 00:07:26,439
BUT THE BACK HALF'S 100%

264
00:07:27,500 --> 00:07:29,600
SUBURBAN MOM: POTENTIAL RAIN,

265
00:07:29,740 --> 00:07:30,880
THE TEMPERATURE, GRISLY

266
00:07:31,180 --> 00:07:32,199
CELEBRITY TRIALS.

267
00:07:32,399 --> 00:07:34,480
CADE, YOU CONTAIN MULTITUDES.

268
00:07:35,600 --> 00:07:36,659
PREDICTION MARKETS ARE BASICALLY

269
00:07:36,659 --> 00:07:38,140
PLATFORMS WHERE YOU CAN WAGER ON

270
00:07:38,140 --> 00:07:39,580
THE OUTCOME OF FUTURE EVENTS.

271
00:07:39,680 --> 00:07:41,060
THE COMPANIES DECIDE ON THE

272
00:07:41,060 --> 00:07:42,340
QUESTIONS TO LIST, AND RIGHT

273
00:07:42,340 --> 00:07:43,840
NOW, YOU CAN WAGER ON ANYTHING

274
00:07:43,880 --> 00:07:45,280
FROM WILL TRAFFIC IN THE STRAIT

275
00:07:45,280 --> 00:07:46,700
OF HORMUZ RETURN TO NORMAL BY

276
00:07:46,700 --> 00:07:47,500
THE END OF APRIL?

277
00:07:47,500 --> 00:07:48,128
TO WILL THE U.S. CONFIRM THAT

278
00:07:48,128 --> 00:07:51,247
ALIENS EXIST BY THE END OF NEXT

279
00:07:51,360 --> 00:07:52,440
THESE MARKETS HAVE SEEN

280
00:07:52,980 --> 00:07:54,400
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH IN RECENT

281
00:07:54,400 --> 00:07:55,920
MONTHS, LOGGING BILLIONS OF

282
00:07:55,920 --> 00:07:57,500
DOLLARS IN BETS EVERY WEEK.

283
00:07:57,580 --> 00:07:58,740
YOU MAY'VE HEARD ABOUT THEM ON

284
00:07:58,740 --> 00:08:00,800
THE NEWS, OR SEEN ADS, OR

285
00:08:00,800 --> 00:08:02,300
STUMBLED ACROSS INFLUENCERS LIKE

286
00:08:02,300 --> 00:08:03,600
THIS GUY, WHO'S CONSTANTLY

287
00:08:04,574 --> 00:08:05,622
UPDATING HIS FOLLOWERS ON HOW

288
00:08:05,622 --> 00:08:06,592
VARIOUS WAGERS ABOUT THE TRUMP

289
00:08:06,592 --> 00:08:07,540
ADMINISTRATION ARE GOING, AND

290
00:08:07,540 --> 00:08:09,360
I'LL WARN YOU -- IT'S A REAL

291
00:08:09,360 --> 00:08:10,302
ROLLERCOASTER.

292
00:08:10,302 --> 00:08:11,634
>> CHINA QUESTION.

293
00:08:11,840 --> 00:08:12,840
PLEASE!

294
00:08:12,840 --> 00:08:13,491
>> HIGH-END NVIDIA CHIPS TO

295
00:08:13,491 --> 00:08:14,452
CHINA.

296
00:08:14,452 --> 00:08:14,967
>> THAT'S CORRECT.

297
00:08:14,967 --> 00:08:15,619
>> BUT THE "WALL STREET JOURNAL"

298
00:08:15,619 --> 00:08:16,099
REPORTED YESTERDAY --

299
00:08:16,099 --> 00:08:16,340
>> OH!

300
00:08:16,340 --> 00:08:17,340
MY HERO!

301
00:08:17,428 --> 00:08:18,685
>> THE PRESIDENT HAS MADE HIS

302
00:08:18,774 --> 00:08:20,031
POSITION ON THIS VERY CLEAR,

303
00:08:20,120 --> 00:08:21,380
BOTH TO THE CHINESE -- THAT'S

304
00:08:21,380 --> 00:08:22,440
NOT SOMETHING WE'RE INTERESTED

305
00:08:22,440 --> 00:08:23,579
IN SELLING TO CHINA AT THIS

306
00:08:23,579 --> 00:08:23,979
TIME --

307
00:08:23,979 --> 00:08:25,699
>> YES!

308
00:08:25,779 --> 00:08:26,779
YES!

309
00:08:27,620 --> 00:08:28,620
>> BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA --

310
00:08:28,662 --> 00:08:30,776
>> YES!

311
00:08:30,819 --> 00:08:32,519
BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA!

312
00:08:32,519 --> 00:08:33,390
>> I'M GETTING RICH OFF JEFFREY

313
00:08:33,390 --> 00:08:35,010
EPSTEIN.

314
00:08:35,010 --> 00:08:36,010
OH, THE FILES DROPPED?

315
00:08:36,014 --> 00:08:37,121
YEAH!

316
00:08:37,121 --> 00:08:38,679
IS DONALD TRUMP NAMED IN THE

317
00:08:38,679 --> 00:08:39,058
FILES?

318
00:08:39,058 --> 00:08:40,539
THEY'RE ALL REDACTED?

319
00:08:40,590 --> 00:08:42,486
>> John: YEAH, A LOT MORE

320
00:08:42,539 --> 00:08:45,259
SCREAMING THAN YOU THOUGHT, HUH?

321
00:08:45,520 --> 00:08:46,940
AND IT'S KIND OF AMAZING TO

322
00:08:46,940 --> 00:08:47,580
WITNESS SOMEONE ABSOLUTELY

323
00:08:47,580 --> 00:08:49,539
FURIOUS TRUMP'S NAME WAS

324
00:08:49,539 --> 00:08:50,460
REDACTED FROM THE EPSTEIN FILES

325
00:08:50,460 --> 00:08:52,039
FOR A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT

326
00:08:52,039 --> 00:08:53,460
REASON THAN THE REST OF US.

327
00:08:53,659 --> 00:08:55,400
THE POINT IS, A LOT OF PEOPLE

328
00:08:55,400 --> 00:08:56,480
ARE GETTING INTO PREDICTION

329
00:08:56,480 --> 00:08:57,820
MARKETS, THANKS IN PART TO AN

330
00:08:57,820 --> 00:08:59,520
AGGRESSIVE MARKETING PUSH BY THE

331
00:08:59,520 --> 00:09:01,080
TWO BIG PLAYERS IN THIS SPACE,

332
00:09:01,140 --> 00:09:02,640
KALSHI AND POLYMARKET.

333
00:09:02,704 --> 00:09:04,116
KALSHI RECENTLY LOCKED IN A $22

334
00:09:04,181 --> 00:09:05,593
BILLION VALUATION FROM

335
00:09:05,860 --> 00:09:07,319
INVESTORS, DOUBLING ITS

336
00:09:07,319 --> 00:09:08,860
VALUATION FROM JUST A FEW MONTHS

337
00:09:08,860 --> 00:09:10,399
EARLIER, AND POLYMARKET'S

338
00:09:10,399 --> 00:09:11,720
CURRENTLY TRYING TO DO THE SAME.

339
00:09:11,800 --> 00:09:13,300
MEANWHILE, DOZENS OF NEW

340
00:09:13,300 --> 00:09:14,300
ENTRANTS -- LIKE COINBASE,

341
00:09:14,319 --> 00:09:15,780
ROBINHOOD, AND EVEN TRUTH SOCIAL

342
00:09:15,780 --> 00:09:17,480
-- ARE ALSO TRYING TO GET IN ON

343
00:09:17,480 --> 00:09:18,120
THE ACTION.

344
00:09:18,120 --> 00:09:19,900
IT'S SHOCKING THE EXTENT TO

345
00:09:19,900 --> 00:09:21,380
WHICH PREDICTION MARKETS HAVE

346
00:09:21,380 --> 00:09:23,320
PROLIFERATED, AND SOMETIMES A

347
00:09:23,520 --> 00:09:25,420
LITTLE UNNERVING, GIVEN THE

348
00:09:25,420 --> 00:09:27,040
THINGS YOU CAN NOW BET ON.

349
00:09:27,280 --> 00:09:29,640
>> ALI KHAMENEI OUT AS SUPREME

350
00:09:29,640 --> 00:09:30,660
LEADER OF IRAN?

351
00:09:31,080 --> 00:09:32,960
WILL NANCY GUTHRIE'S KIDNAPPER

352
00:09:32,960 --> 00:09:34,660
BE ARRESTED BY THE END OF

353
00:09:34,660 --> 00:09:35,100
FEBRUARY?

354
00:09:35,100 --> 00:09:38,060
THOSE ARE JUST TWO EVENTS

355
00:09:38,060 --> 00:09:39,660
OFFERED ON POPULAR PREDICTION

356
00:09:39,660 --> 00:09:41,259
MARKETS IN THE U.S. OVER THE

357
00:09:41,400 --> 00:09:42,900
LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS, WHERE

358
00:09:42,900 --> 00:09:44,060
PEOPLE COULD HAVE PUT THEIR

359
00:09:44,060 --> 00:09:45,960
MONEY DOWN, BETTING ON THE

360
00:09:45,960 --> 00:09:46,314
OUTCOME.

361
00:09:46,314 --> 00:09:47,510
>> THERE'S A LOT OF BAD STUFF

362
00:09:47,510 --> 00:09:48,399
GOING ON IN THE WORLD, AND BEING

363
00:09:48,399 --> 00:09:50,012
ABLE TO BET ON JUST, LIKE,

364
00:09:50,067 --> 00:09:51,263
HORRIBLE THINGS LIKE THAT,

365
00:09:51,319 --> 00:09:54,100
LIKE -- WHEN SOMEBODY'S GONNA BE

366
00:09:54,100 --> 00:09:54,819
FOUND?

367
00:09:54,819 --> 00:09:57,180
LIKE, THAT'S NOT -- THAT'S

368
00:09:57,180 --> 00:09:58,034
REALLY DARK TO ME.

369
00:09:58,034 --> 00:09:59,555
>> John: YEAH, HE'S RIGHT.

370
00:09:59,628 --> 00:10:01,092
THE IMPULSE TO TRY AND MAKE

371
00:10:01,092 --> 00:10:02,600
MONEY BETTING ON WAR, OR AN

372
00:10:02,600 --> 00:10:04,260
UNFOLDING TRAGEDY, IS REALLY

373
00:10:04,260 --> 00:10:04,660
DARK.

374
00:10:04,660 --> 00:10:06,400
WHEN SOMEONE DIES YOU'RE

375
00:10:06,400 --> 00:10:07,460
SUPPOSED TO SEND THEIR FAMILY A

376
00:10:07,460 --> 00:10:08,819
CARD THAT SAYS "SORRY FOR YOUR

377
00:10:08,819 --> 00:10:09,880
LOSS" AND NOT ONE THAT SAYS

378
00:10:10,140 --> 00:10:11,180
"THANKS FOR COVERING THE

379
00:10:11,180 --> 00:10:12,180
SPREAD!"

380
00:10:12,520 --> 00:10:14,400
THAT'S JUST ONE OF MANY ISSUES

381
00:10:14,400 --> 00:10:15,790
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SITES, SO

382
00:10:15,790 --> 00:10:17,500
TONIGHT, LET'S LOOK AT

383
00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:19,140
PREDICTION MARKETS AND TRY TO

384
00:10:19,140 --> 00:10:21,100
ANSWER A FEW QUESTIONS YOU MIGHT

385
00:10:21,100 --> 00:10:22,860
HAVE -- WHERE EXACTLY DID THESE

386
00:10:22,860 --> 00:10:23,680
SITES COME FROM?

387
00:10:23,680 --> 00:10:25,360
WHAT PURPOSE, IF ANY, DO THEY

388
00:10:25,360 --> 00:10:25,800
SERVE?

389
00:10:25,800 --> 00:10:27,940
AND HOW ON EARTH IS ANY OF THIS

390
00:10:27,940 --> 00:10:28,720
LEGAL?

391
00:10:28,720 --> 00:10:29,720
AND LET'S START WITH THE FACT

392
00:10:29,720 --> 00:10:31,020
THAT THE BROAD CONCEPT OF

393
00:10:31,020 --> 00:10:32,280
"PREDICTION MARKETS" ON NEWS

394
00:10:32,280 --> 00:10:33,600
EVENTS IS NOTHING NEW.

395
00:10:34,000 --> 00:10:35,360
IN THE LATE '80s, ECONOMISTS AT

396
00:10:35,360 --> 00:10:36,500
THE UNIVERSITY OF IOWA CREATED

397
00:10:36,500 --> 00:10:38,420
THE IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS AS

398
00:10:38,420 --> 00:10:39,920
AN EXPERIMENT, ALLOWING STUDENTS

399
00:10:39,920 --> 00:10:41,400
AND FACULTY TO BUY AND SELL

400
00:10:41,400 --> 00:10:42,760
PREDICTIONS ABOUT UPCOMING

401
00:10:42,760 --> 00:10:43,780
ELECTIONS, AND INTERESTINGLY,

402
00:10:44,140 --> 00:10:45,940
THEY BEGAN TO OUTPERFORM MANY

403
00:10:45,940 --> 00:10:46,940
LEADING POLLS.

404
00:10:47,240 --> 00:10:48,980
THE THEORY WAS, "THE WISDOM OF

405
00:10:48,980 --> 00:10:50,160
CROWDS" -- IN THE FORM OF PEOPLE

406
00:10:50,160 --> 00:10:51,900
PUTTING ACTUAL MONEY BEHIND

407
00:10:51,960 --> 00:10:53,880
THEIR OPINIONS -- CAN PRODUCE

408
00:10:53,880 --> 00:10:54,980
USEFUL FORECASTS.

409
00:10:55,180 --> 00:10:57,200
AND CONTROVERSIAL USES OF THESE

410
00:10:57,200 --> 00:10:58,840
MARKETS AREN'T NEW, EITHER.

411
00:10:58,980 --> 00:11:00,460
AFTER 9/11, THE PENTAGON

412
00:11:00,523 --> 00:11:02,377
ACTUALLY FLIRTED WITH CREATING A

413
00:11:02,440 --> 00:11:03,814
MARKET WHERE EXPERTS COULD WAGER

414
00:11:03,880 --> 00:11:05,660
ON FUTURE EVENTS, HOPING IT

415
00:11:05,660 --> 00:11:07,020
COULD HELP PREDICT EVENTS IN THE

416
00:11:07,020 --> 00:11:07,800
MIDDLE EAST.

417
00:11:07,800 --> 00:11:09,380
BUT IT QUICKLY GOT SHUT DOWN,

418
00:11:09,380 --> 00:11:10,740
ONCE MEMBERS OF CONGRESS FOUND

419
00:11:10,740 --> 00:11:12,000
OUT ABOUT IT, AND VOICED THEIR

420
00:11:12,000 --> 00:11:12,683
DISGUST.

421
00:11:12,683 --> 00:11:14,509
>> THIS BETTING PARLOR ON THE

422
00:11:14,509 --> 00:11:15,509
INTERNET WILL INCLUDE WAGERS,

423
00:11:15,517 --> 00:11:17,816
FOR EXAMPLE, AS THE -- THE

424
00:11:18,480 --> 00:11:20,319
EXAMPLES ON THE INTERNET SITE

425
00:11:20,319 --> 00:11:21,540
PUT UP BY THE DEPARTMENT OF

426
00:11:21,540 --> 00:11:23,120
DEFENSE, WOULD INCLUDE, WILL

427
00:11:23,560 --> 00:11:25,440
MR. ARAFAT BE ASSASSINATED?

428
00:11:26,060 --> 00:11:27,720
WILL THERE BE MISSILE ATTACKS

429
00:11:27,720 --> 00:11:28,720
FROM NORTH KOREA?

430
00:11:29,100 --> 00:11:30,339
WILL THE KING OF JORDAN BE

431
00:11:30,339 --> 00:11:30,960
OVERTHROWN?

432
00:11:30,960 --> 00:11:31,960
JUST AS AN EXAMPLE.

433
00:11:32,180 --> 00:11:33,920
I THINK THIS IS UNBELIEVABLY

434
00:11:33,920 --> 00:11:34,920
STUPID.

435
00:11:35,040 --> 00:11:38,000
IT'S NOT ONLY -- WELL, THAT IS A

436
00:11:38,000 --> 00:11:39,180
GENTLE THING TO SAY ABOUT A

437
00:11:39,180 --> 00:11:40,900
PROGRAM THAT IS SO DEVOID OF

438
00:11:40,900 --> 00:11:41,860
VALUE.

439
00:11:41,860 --> 00:11:43,700
IT COMBINES THE WORST OF ALL OF

440
00:11:43,700 --> 00:11:44,940
OUR INSTINCTS, IN MY JUDGMENT.

441
00:11:45,401 --> 00:11:46,767
>> John: YEAH, HE WAS

442
00:11:46,767 --> 00:11:47,767
JUSTIFIABLY UPSET AT THE NOTION

443
00:11:47,828 --> 00:11:48,980
OF PEOPLE BETTING ON

444
00:11:48,980 --> 00:11:50,600
GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS THAT WOULD

445
00:11:50,600 --> 00:11:51,940
AFFECT MILLIONS OF LIVES.

446
00:11:52,000 --> 00:11:53,839
AS WE ALL KNOW, THE ONLY GROUPS

447
00:11:54,939 --> 00:11:55,939
SOCIETY'S DECIDED ARE ALLOWED TO

448
00:11:56,089 --> 00:11:57,089
PROFIT FROM INSTABILITY ARE

449
00:11:57,180 --> 00:11:58,760
MILITARY CONTRACTORS, MEMBERS OF

450
00:11:58,760 --> 00:12:00,260
THE TRUMP FAMILY AND THE MORMON

451
00:12:00,260 --> 00:12:01,260
WIVES.

452
00:12:01,500 --> 00:12:02,980
WHITNEY JOINED THE CAST OF

453
00:12:02,980 --> 00:12:04,420
"CHICAGO" ON BROADWAY AND TAYLOR

454
00:12:04,420 --> 00:12:05,640
GETS ANNOUNCED AS BACHELORETTE,

455
00:12:05,700 --> 00:12:06,899
THEN NOTABLY UNANNOUNCED?

456
00:12:07,060 --> 00:12:08,339
I DON'T KNOW HOW THESE WOMEN DO

457
00:12:08,339 --> 00:12:10,660
IT BUT I CAN'T STOP WATCHING.

458
00:12:11,540 --> 00:12:14,000
THE POINT IS, BACK THEN, THE

459
00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:15,200
CONCEPT OF BETTING ON GRIM

460
00:12:15,200 --> 00:12:16,720
OUTCOMES SEEMED BEYOND THE PALE.

461
00:12:16,779 --> 00:12:18,409
BUT EVERYTHING STARTED CHANGING

462
00:12:18,470 --> 00:12:20,220
A FEW YEARS AGO, WHEN KALSHI AND

463
00:12:20,281 --> 00:12:21,579
POLYMARKET LAUNCHED AS STARTUPS,

464
00:12:21,640 --> 00:12:22,700
OPENING THE DOOR TO THE

465
00:12:22,869 --> 00:12:24,480
FREE-FOR-ALL THAT WE HAVE NOW.

466
00:12:24,676 --> 00:12:27,421
INITIALLY, KALSHI SOUGHT

467
00:12:27,421 --> 00:12:27,900
REGULATORY APPROVAL, AND IN

468
00:12:27,900 --> 00:12:29,060
2020, IT WAS APPROVED AS THE

469
00:12:29,060 --> 00:12:30,520
FIRST REGULATED EXCHANGE.

470
00:12:30,639 --> 00:12:32,839
BUT POLYMARKET WENT A DIFFERENT

471
00:12:32,860 --> 00:12:34,060
WAY, LAUNCHING WITHOUT APPROVAL,

472
00:12:34,060 --> 00:12:35,079
AND SEEMING TO BE COMFORTABLE

473
00:12:35,079 --> 00:12:36,680
WORKING OUTSIDE THE RULES.

474
00:12:36,680 --> 00:12:37,391
THE GOVERNMENT ACTUALLY ACCUSED

475
00:12:37,391 --> 00:12:38,391
POLYMARKET OF OPERATING AN

476
00:12:39,280 --> 00:12:41,300
UNLICENSED EXCHANGE, AND AS PART

477
00:12:41,300 --> 00:12:42,980
OF A 2022 SETTLEMENT, IT AGREED

478
00:12:42,980 --> 00:12:45,028
TO PAY $1.4 MILLION AND BLOCK

479
00:12:45,028 --> 00:12:46,178
AMERICANS FROM TRADING ON THE

480
00:12:46,178 --> 00:12:46,234
AMERICANS FROM TRADING ON THE
WRONGDOING.

481
00:12:46,234 --> 00:12:48,354
WRONGDOING.

482
00:12:48,431 --> 00:12:50,102
AND IT'S WORTH WATCHING

483
00:12:50,102 --> 00:12:50,919
POLYMARKET'S CEO, SHAYNE COPLAN,

484
00:12:50,919 --> 00:12:53,599
TRY AND SPIN THAT PENALTY.

485
00:12:53,599 --> 00:12:54,377
>> IT WAS A $1.4 MILLION FINE

486
00:12:54,377 --> 00:12:54,843
AND ALSO YOU --

487
00:12:54,843 --> 00:12:57,680
>> IT WAS A SETTLEMENT.

488
00:12:57,680 --> 00:12:58,379
>> AND YOU COULD NOT HAVE

489
00:12:58,379 --> 00:12:59,709
CUSTOMERS IN THE UNITED STATES.

490
00:12:59,709 --> 00:13:00,820
>> YEAH, WE HAD TO GO AND

491
00:13:00,820 --> 00:13:01,940
GEO-BLOCK TRADING IN THE U.S.

492
00:13:01,960 --> 00:13:02,980
AND MOVE CERTAIN OPERATIONS

493
00:13:02,980 --> 00:13:03,980
OFFSHORE.

494
00:13:03,980 --> 00:13:05,300
AND IT WASN'T, "HEY, YOU'RE

495
00:13:05,300 --> 00:13:06,220
BANNED FROM TRADING IN THE U.S."

496
00:13:06,220 --> 00:13:07,140
IT'S LIKE, "UNTIL YOU'RE

497
00:13:07,140 --> 00:13:07,580
LICENSED."

498
00:13:07,580 --> 00:13:08,440
>> I MEAN, IT WAS BREAKING THE

499
00:13:08,440 --> 00:13:08,720
LAW.

500
00:13:08,720 --> 00:13:10,120
>> I MEAN, PEOPLE SAY BREAKING

501
00:13:10,120 --> 00:13:10,440
THE LAW.

502
00:13:10,440 --> 00:13:11,519
IT'S LIKE, WHICH LAW, YOU KNOW?

503
00:13:11,700 --> 00:13:13,339
SO, IF ANYTHING, IT'S

504
00:13:13,339 --> 00:13:13,953
INCOMPATIBLE.

505
00:13:13,953 --> 00:13:14,437
>> IT'S INCOMPATIBLE WITH THE

506
00:13:14,437 --> 00:13:16,320
LAW.

507
00:13:16,320 --> 00:13:17,182
>> YEAH, WITH THE REGULATORY

508
00:13:17,182 --> 00:13:18,339
MATRIX THAT EXISTED.

509
00:13:18,392 --> 00:13:20,761
>> John: LOOK, INCOMPATIBLE WITH

510
00:13:20,761 --> 00:13:21,299
THE LAW IS CLEARLY RIDICULOUS,

511
00:13:21,299 --> 00:13:22,480
BUT DON'T OVERLOOK THE LINE,

512
00:13:22,800 --> 00:13:24,200
"PEOPLE SAY BREAKING THE LAW AND

513
00:13:24,200 --> 00:13:25,780
IT'S LIKE WHICH LAW, YOU KNOW."

514
00:13:26,379 --> 00:13:27,579
I'M SORRY, WHAT?

515
00:13:28,200 --> 00:13:29,880
I'M PRETTY CONFIDENT THERE IS A

516
00:13:29,880 --> 00:13:31,100
SPECIFIC LAW YOU BROKE, GIVEN --

517
00:13:31,439 --> 00:13:32,439
Y'KNOW -- YOU PAID A

518
00:13:32,900 --> 00:13:33,900
$1.4 MILLION DOLLAR PENALTY.

519
00:13:34,620 --> 00:13:35,680
REGULATORS WEREN'T JUST LIKE,

520
00:13:35,819 --> 00:13:37,620
"SHIT, HE ASKED WHICH LAW?

521
00:13:37,740 --> 00:13:40,260
OH, THE CHINESE EXCLUSION ACT OF

522
00:13:40,620 --> 00:13:41,620
1882?"

523
00:13:41,940 --> 00:13:43,940
FROM THE START, POLYMARKET TOOK

524
00:13:43,940 --> 00:13:45,220
AN EXTREMELY LIBERTARIAN

525
00:13:45,280 --> 00:13:46,280
APPROACH, ALLOWING USERS TO USE

526
00:13:46,480 --> 00:13:47,910
CRYPTO TO BET ANONYMOUSLY ON

527
00:13:47,910 --> 00:13:49,319
THINGS LIKE WAR.

528
00:13:49,660 --> 00:13:50,839
AND WHILE IT'S CURRENTLY ROLLING

529
00:13:50,839 --> 00:13:53,060
OUT A NEW APP TO U.S. USERS THAT

530
00:13:53,060 --> 00:13:54,400
DOES HAVE GOVERNMENT APPROVAL,

531
00:13:54,400 --> 00:13:56,839
IT'S WAY MORE LIMITED AND MOSTLY

532
00:13:56,839 --> 00:13:58,140
OFFERS TRADING ON SPORTS.

533
00:13:58,240 --> 00:13:59,920
THE VAST MAJORITY OF ITS

534
00:13:59,920 --> 00:14:01,199
BUSINESS IS STILL DONE ON

535
00:14:01,200 --> 00:14:02,240
POLYMARKET'S INTERNATIONAL

536
00:14:02,240 --> 00:14:03,560
VERSION, WHICH IS BASED OFFSHORE

537
00:14:03,560 --> 00:14:05,319
IN PANAMA, AND ON WHICH AMERICAN

538
00:14:05,319 --> 00:14:06,700
USERS HAVE TO MASK THEIR

539
00:14:07,200 --> 00:14:08,620
LOCATION IF THEY WANT TO TRADE.

540
00:14:08,860 --> 00:14:10,839
AND WHILE DOING THAT MIGHT BE A

541
00:14:10,839 --> 00:14:12,520
HIGH TECHNOLOGICAL BAR TO CLEAR

542
00:14:12,520 --> 00:14:14,460
FOR SOMEONE LIKE ME, USING A

543
00:14:14,460 --> 00:14:16,600
VPN IS SOMETHING ANYONE UNDER 25

544
00:14:16,600 --> 00:14:18,200
LEARNS TO DO BEFORE THEY LEARN

545
00:14:18,200 --> 00:14:19,200
HOW TO WRITE A CURSIVE

546
00:14:19,319 --> 00:14:21,600
CAPITAL G, MOSTLY BECAUSE THAT'S

547
00:14:21,600 --> 00:14:23,280
AN IMPOSSIBLE LETTER INVENTED BY

548
00:14:23,280 --> 00:14:24,460
SOMEONE WHO WANTED TO MAKE

549
00:14:24,460 --> 00:14:25,460
CHILDREN SUFFER.

550
00:14:25,640 --> 00:14:27,220
IT LOOKS LIKE SOMEONE STABBING

551
00:14:27,220 --> 00:14:28,420
HIMSELF IN THE STOMACH WITH A

552
00:14:28,420 --> 00:14:29,839
PENCIL, BECAUSE THAT'S EXACTLY

553
00:14:29,839 --> 00:14:31,040
WHAT TRYING TO WRITE THAT LETTER

554
00:14:31,040 --> 00:14:32,700
MAKES YOU WANT TO FUCKING DO.

555
00:14:33,180 --> 00:14:36,079
BUT REGARDLESS OF HOW THESE

556
00:14:36,079 --> 00:14:37,339
COMPANIES GOT TO THIS POINT,

557
00:14:37,660 --> 00:14:39,579
BOTH ENJOYED A HUGE SURGE OF

558
00:14:39,579 --> 00:14:40,540
ATTENTION ABOUT A YEAR AND A

559
00:14:40,540 --> 00:14:42,120
HALF AGO, AFTER THIS HAPPENED.

560
00:14:42,188 --> 00:14:44,181
>> KALSHI MADE A NAME FOR ITSELF

561
00:14:44,250 --> 00:14:46,759
IN THE 2024 ELECTION.

562
00:14:46,827 --> 00:14:47,827
>> JUST OVER ONE WEEK AWAY FROM

563
00:14:47,858 --> 00:14:48,858
ELECTION DAY, AND THE RACE IS

564
00:14:48,888 --> 00:14:50,366
NECK AND NECK.

565
00:14:50,435 --> 00:14:53,459
>> IT LOOKED CLOSE, UNLESS YOU

566
00:14:53,528 --> 00:14:54,528
WERE KEEPING AN EYE ON KALSHI,

567
00:14:54,560 --> 00:14:56,220
WHICH CALLED THE RACE WELL

568
00:14:56,220 --> 00:14:58,440
BEFORE THE TV NETWORKS DID.

569
00:14:58,440 --> 00:14:59,437
>> IT WAS LIKE, KALSHI, THEN

570
00:14:59,437 --> 00:15:00,778
FOX, THEN CNN.

571
00:15:00,840 --> 00:15:02,649
>> HOW DID THAT FEEL?

572
00:15:02,649 --> 00:15:03,646
>> IT WAS CRAZY.

573
00:15:03,646 --> 00:15:04,986
>> John: YEAH, KALSHI PREDICTED

574
00:15:05,049 --> 00:15:06,857
TRUMP WOULD WIN, AS DID

575
00:15:07,400 --> 00:15:08,760
POLYMARKET, WHOSE CEO THEN

576
00:15:08,760 --> 00:15:10,020
TWEETED, "MAKE NO MISTAKE,

577
00:15:10,300 --> 00:15:11,520
POLYMARKET SINGLE-HANDEDLY

578
00:15:11,520 --> 00:15:12,380
CALLED THE ELECTION BEFORE

579
00:15:12,380 --> 00:15:13,260
ANYTHING ELSE.

580
00:15:13,260 --> 00:15:14,560
THE GLOBAL TRUTH MACHINE IS

581
00:15:14,560 --> 00:15:16,080
HERE, POWERED BY THE PEOPLE."

582
00:15:16,100 --> 00:15:17,280
AND WHILE IT'S NOT THE MOST

583
00:15:17,280 --> 00:15:19,060
IMPORTANT THING, YOU'VE NOW MET

584
00:15:19,060 --> 00:15:20,800
THE CEOS OF THESE TWO COMPANIES,

585
00:15:20,800 --> 00:15:22,460
AND I'M JUST GONNA SAY: THEY'RE

586
00:15:22,460 --> 00:15:23,860
TWO OF THE MOST "EXTRAS IN A

587
00:15:24,040 --> 00:15:25,040
TOTINOS PIZZA ROLLS

588
00:15:25,040 --> 00:15:25,680
COMMERCIAL"-LOOKING

589
00:15:25,680 --> 00:15:27,860
MOTHERFUCKERS I'VE EVER SEEN IN

590
00:15:27,860 --> 00:15:28,860
MY LIFE.

591
00:15:28,860 --> 00:15:31,300
ANYWAY, SINCE THEN, THEY'VE BOTH

592
00:15:31,300 --> 00:15:32,760
BEEN SCRAMBLING FOR MARKET

593
00:15:32,760 --> 00:15:33,780
DOMINANCE, WHICH IS WHY KALSHI,

594
00:15:34,119 --> 00:15:35,480
FOR INSTANCE, HAS RUN TV ADS

595
00:15:35,480 --> 00:15:36,399
LIKE THIS.

596
00:15:36,399 --> 00:15:37,860
>> INDIANA GONNA WIN, BABY.

597
00:15:37,920 --> 00:15:39,140
>> WE'RE IN FLORIDA ASKING

598
00:15:39,140 --> 00:15:40,960
PEOPLE WHAT THEY PUT THEIR MONEY

599
00:15:40,960 --> 00:15:41,600
ON!

600
00:15:41,600 --> 00:15:43,419
>> I'M ALL IN ON OKC!

601
00:15:43,779 --> 00:15:45,799
>> INDIANA GOT THAT DOG IN 'EM!

602
00:15:45,800 --> 00:15:47,600
>> WILL EGG PRICES GO UP THIS

603
00:15:47,600 --> 00:15:48,019
MONTH?

604
00:15:48,019 --> 00:15:49,360
>> I THINK WE'LL HIT $20.

605
00:15:49,445 --> 00:15:50,657
>> HOW MANY HURRICANES DO YOU

606
00:15:50,743 --> 00:15:51,955
THINK WE'LL HAVE THIS YEAR?

607
00:15:52,040 --> 00:15:53,253
>> [SCREAMS]

608
00:15:53,253 --> 00:15:53,988
>> KALSHI!

609
00:15:53,988 --> 00:15:54,636
KALSHI!

610
00:15:54,636 --> 00:15:57,146
>> KALSHI!

611
00:15:57,231 --> 00:15:58,696
>> KALSHI LETS YOU LEGALLY TRADE

612
00:15:58,696 --> 00:16:00,000
ON ANYTHING, ANYWHERE IN THE

613
00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:00,543
U.S.

614
00:16:00,543 --> 00:16:01,513
>> OKC!

615
00:16:01,513 --> 00:16:03,388
>> INDIANA!

616
00:16:03,388 --> 00:16:03,937
>> OKC!

617
00:16:03,937 --> 00:16:06,781
>> KALSHI!

618
00:16:06,846 --> 00:16:09,205
>> John: OKAY, THAT VISUAL

619
00:16:09,205 --> 00:16:09,755
CACOPHONY IS AN AI SLOP

620
00:16:09,755 --> 00:16:11,145
ATROCITY.

621
00:16:11,209 --> 00:16:12,449
IT CONTAINED TWO ALLIGATORS,

622
00:16:12,629 --> 00:16:13,629
FOUR SHIRTLESS OR NEARLY

623
00:16:13,770 --> 00:16:15,290
SHIRTLESS OLD GUYS, ONE EGG

624
00:16:15,290 --> 00:16:16,609
FREAK, THREE DIFFERENT PEOPLE

625
00:16:16,669 --> 00:16:18,109
BEING PURSUED BY THE POLICE, ONE

626
00:16:18,109 --> 00:16:19,530
WOMAN I'M KIND OF ROOTING FOR,

627
00:16:20,010 --> 00:16:21,790
ONE USDA INSPECTOR'S FUCKING

628
00:16:21,790 --> 00:16:23,170
NIGHTMARE, AND ONE ALIEN

629
00:16:23,170 --> 00:16:24,530
SEEMINGLY ROOTING FOR DUKE,

630
00:16:24,609 --> 00:16:25,609
WHICH -- HONESTLY -- TRACKS.

631
00:16:25,850 --> 00:16:27,490
AND THE WHOLE THING ENDS WITH,

632
00:16:27,490 --> 00:16:29,010
"THE WORLD'S GONE MAD, TRADE

633
00:16:29,010 --> 00:16:30,329
IT," THOUGH GIVEN EVERYTHING

634
00:16:31,101 --> 00:16:32,234
THAT CAME BEFORE, A MORE HONEST

635
00:16:32,234 --> 00:16:32,734
TAGLINE WOULD'VE BEEN, "FUCK

636
00:16:32,734 --> 00:16:33,472
EMPATHY, GET MONEY.

637
00:16:33,472 --> 00:16:35,396
KALSHI."

638
00:16:35,449 --> 00:16:37,530
AND AGAIN, THAT'S THE ONE THAT

639
00:16:37,530 --> 00:16:38,810
LIKES TO PRESENT ITSELF AS THE

640
00:16:38,810 --> 00:16:40,569
MORE BUTTONED-DOWN, RULE-ABIDING

641
00:16:40,569 --> 00:16:41,689
COMPANY OF THE TWO.

642
00:16:41,750 --> 00:16:42,870
AND AT THIS POINT, YOU MIGHT BE

643
00:16:43,130 --> 00:16:44,609
THINKING: WAIT -- ISN'T THAT AN

644
00:16:44,609 --> 00:16:46,229
AD FOR A GAMBLING SITE?

645
00:16:46,690 --> 00:16:48,170
BUT BOTH KALSHI AND POLYMARKET

646
00:16:48,170 --> 00:16:50,030
WILL FIERCELY ARGUE THAT'S NOT

647
00:16:50,030 --> 00:16:51,209
WHAT THEY ARE AT ALL.

648
00:16:51,290 --> 00:16:52,650
THEY ARGUE THAT GAMBLING

649
00:16:52,650 --> 00:16:53,849
INVOLVES PLAYING AGAINST

650
00:16:53,849 --> 00:16:55,650
"THE HOUSE," WHILE THEIR USERS

651
00:16:55,650 --> 00:16:56,930
ARE TRADING AGAINST EACH OTHER,

652
00:16:56,930 --> 00:16:57,790
WITH THE COMPANIES TYPICALLY

653
00:16:57,790 --> 00:16:59,849
JUST CHARGING A FEE ON TRADES.

654
00:17:00,250 --> 00:17:01,599
THEY'LL ALSO INSIST THEY'RE JUST

655
00:17:01,770 --> 00:17:03,290
MODERN VERSIONS OF COMMODITY

656
00:17:03,290 --> 00:17:04,970
FUTURES MARKETS, WHICH'VE BEEN

657
00:17:04,970 --> 00:17:06,190
AROUND FOR OVER A CENTURY.

658
00:17:06,190 --> 00:17:07,450
IF YOU'RE NOT FAMILIAR WITH

659
00:17:07,450 --> 00:17:08,069
THEM, THEY'RE A PLACE WHERE

660
00:17:08,069 --> 00:17:09,810
PEOPLE CAN SPECULATE ABOUT THE

661
00:17:09,810 --> 00:17:10,710
FUTURE PRICE OF THINGS LIKE

662
00:17:10,710 --> 00:17:12,230
CORN OR NATURAL GAS.

663
00:17:12,329 --> 00:17:14,069
AND CRUCIALLY, THEY ARGUE THAT

664
00:17:14,069 --> 00:17:15,670
THE BETS THEY SELL ARE FINANCIAL

665
00:17:15,670 --> 00:17:17,490
INSTRUMENTS THAT ENABLE ORDINARY

666
00:17:17,490 --> 00:17:19,589
PEOPLE TO HEDGE AGAINST FUTURE

667
00:17:19,670 --> 00:17:20,970
RISKS -- LIKE BY BETTING THAT,

668
00:17:21,108 --> 00:17:22,388
SAY, A HURRICANE WILL HIT, OR

669
00:17:22,388 --> 00:17:23,648
THAT THE U.S. GOVERNMENT WILL

670
00:17:23,648 --> 00:17:24,300
SHUT DOWN.

671
00:17:24,300 --> 00:17:24,936
HERE'S HOW KALSHI'S CEO FRAMES

672
00:17:24,936 --> 00:17:26,353
IT.

673
00:17:26,423 --> 00:17:28,477
>> WE HAD A MARKET ABOUT WHETHER

674
00:17:28,547 --> 00:17:29,547
STUDENT LOANS ARE GOING TO BE

675
00:17:29,608 --> 00:17:31,429
FORGIVEN OR NOT THIS YEAR.

676
00:17:31,550 --> 00:17:32,550
AND SO, A LOT OF PEOPLE WERE

677
00:17:32,690 --> 00:17:33,690
HEDGING USING THAT MARKET.

678
00:17:34,089 --> 00:17:35,409
AND SO, IF IT WASN'T FORGIVEN,

679
00:17:35,409 --> 00:17:36,369
THEY WOULD GET PAID SOME AMOUNT

680
00:17:36,369 --> 00:17:37,550
OF MONEY THAT THEY COULD USE TO

681
00:17:37,550 --> 00:17:38,849
BASICALLY PAY THE STUDENT LOAN.

682
00:17:39,230 --> 00:17:40,349
AND THAT'S WHY THIS IS VERY

683
00:17:40,349 --> 00:17:40,729
IMPORTANT.

684
00:17:40,729 --> 00:17:41,620
>> John: RIGHT.

685
00:17:41,620 --> 00:17:42,511
APPARENTLY, THEY'RE JUST TRYING

686
00:17:42,511 --> 00:17:42,956
TO HELP PEOPLE MAKE WISE

687
00:17:42,956 --> 00:17:45,570
PLANNING DECISIONS.

688
00:17:45,629 --> 00:17:46,810
IT'S THE KIND OF RESPONSIBLE

689
00:17:46,810 --> 00:17:47,909
FINANCIAL THINKING YOU

690
00:17:47,909 --> 00:17:49,629
INTUITIVELY ASSOCIATE WITH A

691
00:17:49,629 --> 00:17:50,750
COMPANY THAT ADVERTISES ITSELF

692
00:17:50,750 --> 00:17:52,119
WITH A SHIRTLESS OLD MAN BEING

693
00:17:52,119 --> 00:17:54,050
ARRESTED OR AN ALIEN PLEDGING

694
00:17:54,050 --> 00:17:55,050
SIGMA CHI.

695
00:17:55,170 --> 00:17:57,590
AND LOOK, THAT MIGHT MAKE SOME

696
00:17:57,590 --> 00:17:59,050
SENSE WHEN YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT

697
00:17:59,050 --> 00:18:00,570
AN ECONOMIC INDICATOR OR A

698
00:18:00,570 --> 00:18:02,330
SPECIFIC EVENT THAT MIGHT IMPACT

699
00:18:02,656 --> 00:18:03,419
YOU.

700
00:18:03,419 --> 00:18:04,788
BUT WHAT EXACTLY IS THE

701
00:18:04,788 --> 00:18:05,669
FINANCIAL LOSS THAT I'M HEDGING

702
00:18:05,669 --> 00:18:07,882
AGAINST IF I BET ON THE NEXT

703
00:18:07,920 --> 00:18:10,240
WINNER OF "THE MASKED SINGER" OR

704
00:18:10,240 --> 00:18:11,620
ON WHETHER OR NOT MR. BEAST WILL

705
00:18:11,620 --> 00:18:12,620
SAY "FEASTABLE?"

706
00:18:12,691 --> 00:18:14,292
AND WHEN YOU WATCH SOME OF

707
00:18:14,405 --> 00:18:16,006
KALSHI'S ACTUAL CUSTOMERS IN

708
00:18:16,460 --> 00:18:17,740
ACTION, THE NOTION THAT THIS IS

709
00:18:17,740 --> 00:18:19,360
ABOUT SOBER RISK MANAGEMENT

710
00:18:19,360 --> 00:18:20,620
FEELS ABSURD.

711
00:18:20,694 --> 00:18:21,741
>> I TELL YOU, IF I DIDN'T WIN

712
00:18:21,816 --> 00:18:25,669
THIS ELECTION AND IF YOU HAD A

713
00:18:25,743 --> 00:18:27,352
MORON LIKE KAMALA OR A MORON

714
00:18:27,427 --> 00:18:28,474
LIKE SLEEPY JOE.

715
00:18:28,549 --> 00:18:32,963
>> YEAH!

716
00:18:33,040 --> 00:18:34,040
BANG!

717
00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:34,880
BANG!

718
00:18:34,880 --> 00:18:35,960
NUMBER ONE, SLEEPY JOE!

719
00:18:36,420 --> 00:18:37,720
>> WE'RE LOOKING GOOD SO FAR.

720
00:18:38,060 --> 00:18:42,298
>> EASY, BRO.

721
00:18:42,439 --> 00:18:42,980
OKAY.

722
00:18:42,980 --> 00:18:43,683
ALL RIGHT.

723
00:18:43,683 --> 00:18:43,881
ALL RIGHT.

724
00:18:43,881 --> 00:18:45,427
ALL RIGHT.

725
00:18:45,427 --> 00:18:45,869
>> WE MADE ABOUT $200 BUCKS."

726
00:18:45,869 --> 00:18:46,134
>> OKAY.

727
00:18:46,134 --> 00:18:46,333
ALL RIGHT.

728
00:18:46,333 --> 00:18:46,796
$200 BUCKS.

729
00:18:46,796 --> 00:18:47,150
>> MEN PLAYING IN WOMEN'S

730
00:18:47,150 --> 00:18:47,459
SPORTS.

731
00:18:47,459 --> 00:18:48,121
>> WAIT, WAIT, WAIT!

732
00:18:48,121 --> 00:18:48,784
>> TRANSGENDER --

733
00:18:48,784 --> 00:18:50,065
>> HEY!

734
00:18:50,109 --> 00:18:51,390
>> YES!

735
00:18:51,390 --> 00:18:51,765
>> HEY!

736
00:18:51,765 --> 00:18:52,759
>> WE ARE OFF TO A GREAT START!

737
00:18:52,759 --> 00:18:54,460
WE HIT ON THAT SHIT IMMEDIATELY!

738
00:18:54,543 --> 00:18:56,330
>> SLEEPY JOE, TRANSGENDER.

739
00:18:56,412 --> 00:18:57,458
>> WE GOT "SLEEPY JOE" AND

740
00:18:57,458 --> 00:18:58,399
"TRANSGENDER" IN LIKE THE FIRST

741
00:18:58,399 --> 00:18:59,220
FIVE MINUTES, BRO.

742
00:18:59,220 --> 00:19:02,259
BRO, WE'RE UP LIKE $500 BUCKS.

743
00:19:02,500 --> 00:19:03,579
>> WE GOT TO MAKE $1,000.

744
00:19:03,720 --> 00:19:04,720
>> YEAH, WE GOT TO MAKE $1,000.

745
00:19:04,720 --> 00:19:05,040
ALL RIGHT.

746
00:19:05,040 --> 00:19:06,040
ALL RIGHT.

747
00:19:06,240 --> 00:19:08,200
I HAVE NO -- LIKE I COULDN'T

748
00:19:08,200 --> 00:19:09,220
EVEN TELL YOU WHAT THE [BLEEP]

749
00:19:09,220 --> 00:19:09,979
THIS MAN IS SAYING.

750
00:19:09,979 --> 00:19:11,940
LIKE, HE JUST SAYS A SOUP OF

751
00:19:11,940 --> 00:19:12,740
RANDOM WORDS.

752
00:19:12,740 --> 00:19:14,500
SOMEHOW JOEL IS JUST DECIPHERING

753
00:19:14,500 --> 00:19:15,820
THIS AND JUST MAKING MONEY.

754
00:19:15,917 --> 00:19:17,288
>> John: YEAH, THAT'S NOT USING

755
00:19:17,288 --> 00:19:18,288
A FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT TO HEDGE

756
00:19:18,317 --> 00:19:20,962
RISK.

757
00:19:21,060 --> 00:19:22,340
IT'S TAKING ADVANTAGE OF A

758
00:19:22,767 --> 00:19:23,767
SUN-DOWNING GERIATRIC'S RAPIDLY

759
00:19:24,020 --> 00:19:25,520
DECLINING VERBAL ABILITIES.

760
00:19:25,940 --> 00:19:27,639
OH, YOU BET HE'S GONNA SAY THE

761
00:19:27,639 --> 00:19:28,476
WORD "NASTY?"

762
00:19:28,476 --> 00:19:30,133
GREAT GUESS, DUDE, IT'S ONE OF

763
00:19:30,209 --> 00:19:33,021
THE LAST 200 WORDS HE HAS LEFT.

764
00:19:33,100 --> 00:19:34,780
HONESTLY, THAT CLIP'S UNSETTLING

765
00:19:34,780 --> 00:19:35,729
ON MULTIPLE FRONTS -- ONE,

766
00:19:35,729 --> 00:19:37,379
BECAUSE THE PRESIDENT'S HARMFUL

767
00:19:37,449 --> 00:19:38,953
RHETORIC IS BEING DIVORCED FROM

768
00:19:39,022 --> 00:19:40,022
ITS ACTUAL MEANING, BUT TWO,

769
00:19:40,072 --> 00:19:41,576
BECAUSE THAT'S NOT WHAT THESE

770
00:19:41,646 --> 00:19:43,150
BROS ARE SUPPOSED TO BE DOING.

771
00:19:43,220 --> 00:19:44,320
THEY SHOULDN'T BE BETTING ON

772
00:19:44,540 --> 00:19:45,600
TRUMP SPEECHES, THEY SHOULD BE

773
00:19:45,600 --> 00:19:47,380
SITTING ON THAT SAME COUCH AND

774
00:19:47,380 --> 00:19:48,700
WATCHING YOUTUBE HIGHLIGHT REELS

775
00:19:48,700 --> 00:19:50,320
OF KEVIN LOVE OUTLET PASSES,

776
00:19:50,700 --> 00:19:52,560
SIX MODELOS IN, FORGING A DEEP,

777
00:19:52,820 --> 00:19:53,960
BEAUTIFUL FRIENDSHIP THAT'LL

778
00:19:53,960 --> 00:19:55,340
LAST 40 YEARS AND THAT THEY'LL

779
00:19:55,340 --> 00:19:56,840
NEVER EVER DISCUSS.

780
00:19:57,219 --> 00:19:59,500
NATURE HAS LOST ITS COURSE.

781
00:19:59,659 --> 00:20:02,500
THE POINT IS, THAT SURE LOOKS

782
00:20:02,500 --> 00:20:03,159
LIKE GAMBLING.

783
00:20:03,159 --> 00:20:04,620
AND IT'S PRETTY TELLING THAT,

784
00:20:04,620 --> 00:20:05,560
WHILE POLITICAL "MENTIONS

785
00:20:05,560 --> 00:20:07,820
MARKETS" LIKE THAT GET A LOT OF

786
00:20:07,820 --> 00:20:10,020
ATTENTION, AROUND 90% OF TRADING

787
00:20:10,391 --> 00:20:12,706
VOLUME ON KALSHI IS ON SPORTS.

788
00:20:12,760 --> 00:20:14,980
BUT YOU CAN SEE WHY THESE

789
00:20:14,980 --> 00:20:16,840
COMPANIES ARE SO INSISTENT THAT

790
00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:18,159
THEY'RE NOT GAMBLING SITES.

791
00:20:18,420 --> 00:20:20,159
JUST 39 STATES, D.C. AND PUERTO

792
00:20:20,159 --> 00:20:22,120
RICO HAVE SOME FORM OF LEGALIZED

793
00:20:22,120 --> 00:20:23,980
SPORTS BETTING -- WITH ONLY 32

794
00:20:23,980 --> 00:20:25,500
OF THOSE ALLOWING ONLINE

795
00:20:25,781 --> 00:20:26,781
GAMBLING, LEAVING SOME PRETTY

796
00:20:26,900 --> 00:20:27,900
ATTRACTIVE MEGA-STATES LIKE

797
00:20:28,280 --> 00:20:30,340
CALIFORNIA AND TEXAS ON THE

798
00:20:30,340 --> 00:20:32,260
TABLE AND BY INSISTING THEY'RE

799
00:20:32,639 --> 00:20:34,260
FINANCIAL EXCHANGES OFFERING NOT

800
00:20:34,260 --> 00:20:36,280
BETS BUT "EVENT CONTRACTS,"

801
00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:38,179
PREDICTION MARKETS ARE NOT ONLY

802
00:20:38,179 --> 00:20:39,420
ABLE TO OPERATE IN STATES WHERE

803
00:20:39,420 --> 00:20:40,860
GAMBLING ISN'T LEGAL -- BUT ALSO

804
00:20:40,860 --> 00:20:43,000
GET AROUND STATE TAXES AND

805
00:20:43,080 --> 00:20:44,860
MINIMUM-AGE REQUIREMENTS IN

806
00:20:44,860 --> 00:20:46,000
STATES WHERE IT IS.

807
00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:47,580
AND THEY'VE SOMETIMES TALKED OUT

808
00:20:47,580 --> 00:20:48,840
OF BOTH SIDES OF THEIR MOUTH.

809
00:20:49,159 --> 00:20:50,280
BECAUSE IN ADS LIKE THIS ONE,

810
00:20:50,780 --> 00:20:51,900
KALSHI'S CALLED ITSELF "THE

811
00:20:51,900 --> 00:20:53,760
FIRST NATIONWIDE LEGAL SPORTS

812
00:20:53,760 --> 00:20:54,540
BETTING PLATFORM."

813
00:20:54,540 --> 00:20:57,020
BUT WHEN ASKED ABOUT IT, IT

814
00:20:57,020 --> 00:20:58,050
LATER TRIED TO QUALIFY THAT

815
00:20:58,050 --> 00:20:59,050
STATEMENT, SAYING, "THE 'BET'

816
00:20:59,220 --> 00:21:01,099
LANGUAGE IS ONLY USED IN THE

817
00:21:01,099 --> 00:21:02,539
SENSE THAT ANY FINANCIAL

818
00:21:02,539 --> 00:21:02,986
POSITION CAN BE CONSIDERED A

819
00:21:02,986 --> 00:21:05,011
'BET' ON THE FUTURE."

820
00:21:05,060 --> 00:21:07,699
AND THAT'S SO DUMB, IT'S ALMOST

821
00:21:07,699 --> 00:21:08,699
CHARMING.

822
00:21:08,699 --> 00:21:10,340
IT'S LIKE SEEING A SIGN OUTSIDE

823
00:21:10,340 --> 00:21:11,699
A STRIP CLUB THAT SAYS "GIRLS

824
00:21:11,800 --> 00:21:13,400
GIRLS GIRLS" AND THEN SEEING THE

825
00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:14,400
MANAGER COME OUT AND SAY "WE

826
00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:15,860
MEANT GIRLS GIRLS GIRLS WHO

827
00:21:15,860 --> 00:21:16,440
CODE.

828
00:21:16,440 --> 00:21:18,279
WE SUPPORT WOMEN IN STEM."

829
00:21:18,365 --> 00:21:20,913
SURE YOU DO.

830
00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:22,000
NICE TRY.

831
00:21:22,420 --> 00:21:24,199
BUT THESE COMPANIES INSISTENCE

832
00:21:24,639 --> 00:21:26,080
THAT THEY'RE NOT GAMBLING SITES

833
00:21:26,220 --> 00:21:27,476
IS ACTUALLY ONE OF THE TWO MOST

834
00:21:27,476 --> 00:21:28,981
IRRITATING ARGUMENTS THESE SITES

835
00:21:29,020 --> 00:21:29,800
TEND TO MAKE.

836
00:21:29,800 --> 00:21:31,000
THE OTHER IS THAT THEY'RE

837
00:21:31,259 --> 00:21:32,740
ACTUALLY INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT TO

838
00:21:32,740 --> 00:21:34,860
SOCIETY, BECAUSE THEY CAN HELP

839
00:21:34,860 --> 00:21:36,380
US MORE ACCURATELY PREDICT THE

840
00:21:36,380 --> 00:21:36,835
FUTURE.

841
00:21:36,835 --> 00:21:37,916
THE HEAD OF POLYMARKET'S EVEN

842
00:21:38,052 --> 00:21:39,542
CALLED IT "THE MOST ACCURATE

843
00:21:39,678 --> 00:21:40,762
THING WE HAVE AS MANKIND RIGHT

844
00:21:40,899 --> 00:21:42,591
NOW," AND HAS BRAGGED THAT THE

845
00:21:42,725 --> 00:21:43,742
PREDICTIONS IT GENERATES CAN

846
00:21:43,879 --> 00:21:45,379
SAVE LIVES.

847
00:21:45,449 --> 00:21:46,967
>> WHEN I GET HIT UP BY PEOPLE

848
00:21:47,037 --> 00:21:49,614
IN THE MIDDLE EAST WHO ARE

849
00:21:49,685 --> 00:21:51,732
SAYING THAT, HEY, WE'RE LOOKING

850
00:21:51,803 --> 00:21:53,321
AT POLYMARKET TO DECIDE WHETHER

851
00:21:53,391 --> 00:21:54,909
WE SLEEP NEAR THE BOMB SHELTER.

852
00:21:54,909 --> 00:21:55,900
LIKE, WE LOOK AT IT EVERY DAY.

853
00:21:55,900 --> 00:21:56,520
AND I'M LIKE, OH, IT'S REALLY

854
00:21:56,520 --> 00:21:57,279
THAT POPULAR OVER THERE?

855
00:21:57,279 --> 00:21:58,819
ARE YOU KIDDING ME?

856
00:21:58,819 --> 00:21:59,780
DO YOU NOT EVEN KNOW WHAT'S

857
00:21:59,780 --> 00:22:00,220
GOING ON?

858
00:22:00,220 --> 00:22:01,920
LIKE, EVERYONE'S RELYING ON

859
00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:02,920
THIS.

860
00:22:04,259 --> 00:22:05,259
THAT'S VERY POWERFUL.

861
00:22:05,780 --> 00:22:10,080
THAT'S LIKE AN UNDENIABLE VALUE

862
00:22:10,080 --> 00:22:12,040
PROPOSITION THAT DID NOT EXIST

863
00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:12,488
BEFORE

864
00:22:12,488 --> 00:22:14,410
>> John: HEY, QUICK QUESTION:

865
00:22:14,500 --> 00:22:16,040
WHAT EXACT STAGE OF CAPITALISM

866
00:22:16,040 --> 00:22:18,540
ARE WE IN WHEN THE CHILD CEO OF

867
00:22:18,540 --> 00:22:19,720
AN OFFSHORE GAMBLING PLATFORM

868
00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:21,380
REFERS TO BETTING ODDS ON

869
00:22:21,380 --> 00:22:23,199
BOMBINGS AS AN "UNDENIABLE VALUE

870
00:22:23,199 --> 00:22:23,980
PROPOSITION?"

871
00:22:23,980 --> 00:22:25,540
BECAUSE IT FEELS LIKE WE'RE IN

872
00:22:25,540 --> 00:22:27,139
PALLIATIVE CARE AT THIS POINT.

873
00:22:27,519 --> 00:22:28,980
BUT I GUESS THAT'S THE POINT YOU

874
00:22:29,054 --> 00:22:30,094
REACH WHEN YOU'RE A 27-YEAR-OLD

875
00:22:30,169 --> 00:22:31,209
BILLIONAIRE, SURROUNDED BY YES

876
00:22:31,284 --> 00:22:32,324
MEN WHO'LL NEVER TELL YOU THE

877
00:22:32,398 --> 00:22:33,439
TRUTH, SOMETHING I KNOW FOR SURE

878
00:22:33,513 --> 00:22:35,111
BECAUSE NO ONE IN THAT BOY'S

879
00:22:35,185 --> 00:22:37,898
LIFE TOLD HIM NEVER TO WEAR THAT

880
00:22:37,972 --> 00:22:39,012
JACKET, WHICH -- WHEN HE'S

881
00:22:39,087 --> 00:22:40,685
SITTING LIKE THAT --

882
00:22:40,759 --> 00:22:42,839
UNMISTAKABLY SAYS "PEED RIDER."

883
00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:45,780
THOUGH FOR ALL THE TALK OF THESE

884
00:22:45,780 --> 00:22:47,179
SITES' UNPARALLELED ACCURACY --

885
00:22:47,300 --> 00:22:48,720
YOU SHOULD KNOW, THAT'S A BIT OF

886
00:22:48,720 --> 00:22:49,300
AN OVERSELL.

887
00:22:49,300 --> 00:22:50,900
THEY HAVE SHOWN PROMISE IN SOME

888
00:22:50,900 --> 00:22:52,067
AREAS -- A RECENT PAPER FOUND

889
00:22:52,067 --> 00:22:53,040
KALSHI'S PREDICTIONS WERE

890
00:22:53,040 --> 00:22:54,860
"ROUGHLY CONSISTENT" WITH THOSE

891
00:22:54,860 --> 00:22:56,380
OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERS WHEN

892
00:22:56,380 --> 00:22:58,139
IT CAME TO THE ECONOMY AND

893
00:22:58,139 --> 00:22:59,340
FEDERAL RESERVE POLICY.

894
00:22:59,639 --> 00:23:01,860
BUT THEY'VE ALSO HAD SOME BIG

895
00:23:01,860 --> 00:23:02,500
MISSES.

896
00:23:02,500 --> 00:23:03,780
FOR INSTANCE, BOTH FAVORED THE

897
00:23:03,780 --> 00:23:04,900
CHIEFS TO WIN LAST YEAR'S SUPER

898
00:23:04,900 --> 00:23:06,500
BOWL, AND ALSO WHIFFED THE

899
00:23:06,500 --> 00:23:07,980
RECENT TEXAS REPUBLICAN SENATE

900
00:23:08,281 --> 00:23:09,281
PRIMARY, WITH POLYMARKET EVEN

901
00:23:09,423 --> 00:23:10,636
POSTING A "BREAKING" ALERT THAT

902
00:23:11,600 --> 00:23:13,060
MORNING, ANNOUNCING KEN PAXTON

903
00:23:13,060 --> 00:23:14,780
WAS PROJECTED TO WIN, WITH THEIR

904
00:23:14,780 --> 00:23:16,270
ODDS GIVING HIM AN 83% CHANCE.

905
00:23:16,270 --> 00:23:17,270
AND, Y'KNOW...

906
00:23:17,500 --> 00:23:18,880
HE DIDN'T DO THAT.

907
00:23:19,300 --> 00:23:21,159
AND LOOK, ALL OF THAT WOULD BE

908
00:23:21,159 --> 00:23:21,860
FINE.

909
00:23:21,860 --> 00:23:23,100
THESE ARE JUST ODDS, AND REAL

910
00:23:23,100 --> 00:23:24,760
LIFE CAN DEFY ODDS.

911
00:23:25,139 --> 00:23:26,780
WERE IT NOT FOR THE FACT THAT

912
00:23:26,780 --> 00:23:28,040
THESE COMPANIES ARE ACTIVELY

913
00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:29,699
SELLING THEMSELVES AS BASICALLY

914
00:23:29,699 --> 00:23:30,699
ORACLES.

915
00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:31,780
AND THEY'VE EVEN TRIED TO

916
00:23:31,780 --> 00:23:33,800
BOLSTER THAT REPUTATION BY

917
00:23:33,800 --> 00:23:35,320
ENTERING PAID PARTNERSHIP DEALS

918
00:23:35,320 --> 00:23:37,139
WITH NEWS ORGANIZATIONS.

919
00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:39,620
DOW JONES, PARENT COMPANY OF THE

920
00:23:39,620 --> 00:23:40,560
"WALL STREET JOURNAL," ANNOUNCED

921
00:23:40,560 --> 00:23:42,060
A PARTNERSHIP WITH POLYMARKET

922
00:23:42,060 --> 00:23:43,760
EARLIER THIS YEAR, WHILE CNN,

923
00:23:43,940 --> 00:23:46,040
CNBC AND FOX NEWS ALL SIGNED

924
00:23:46,116 --> 00:23:48,281
DEALS WITH KALSHI, WHICH EVEN

925
00:23:48,281 --> 00:23:49,055
SPONSORS SEGMENTS ON CNN THAT

926
00:23:49,055 --> 00:23:51,182
FEATURE KALSHI'S ODDS ON VARIOUS

927
00:23:52,120 --> 00:23:53,920
FUTURE EVENTS SCROLLING ACROSS

928
00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:55,100
THE BOTTOM OF THE SCREEN.

929
00:23:55,380 --> 00:23:57,580
AND I DO NOT WANT THE CNN

930
00:23:57,580 --> 00:23:59,699
TICKER TO HAVE BETTING ODDS ON

931
00:23:59,699 --> 00:24:00,699
NEWS EVENTS.

932
00:24:00,780 --> 00:24:01,920
I DON'T REALLY WANT ANYTHING

933
00:24:02,120 --> 00:24:03,159
THERE, EXCEPT MAYBE THE ODD

934
00:24:03,199 --> 00:24:04,300
DISTRACTINGLY WEIRD HEADLINE

935
00:24:04,300 --> 00:24:05,420
THAT TAKES MY MIND OFF THINGS

936
00:24:05,420 --> 00:24:05,824
FOR A SECOND.

937
00:24:05,824 --> 00:24:08,911
SOMETHING LIKE, "GIRAFFE ESCAPES

938
00:24:08,911 --> 00:24:09,399
FROM ZOO -- POLICE SAY IT HAS A

939
00:24:09,399 --> 00:24:10,653
GUN."

940
00:24:10,699 --> 00:24:12,900
YOU KNOW, SOMETHING FUN TO

941
00:24:12,900 --> 00:24:13,720
GOOGLE LATER.

942
00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:16,840
BUT HAVING THEIR LOGO LIKE THAT

943
00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:19,659
ON CNN IS A BIG WIN FOR KALSHI.

944
00:24:20,159 --> 00:24:22,020
JUST AS IT'S A BIG WIN FOR THEM

945
00:24:22,020 --> 00:24:23,300
TO HAVE INFLUENCERS LIKE THAT

946
00:24:23,300 --> 00:24:25,020
GUY FROM EARLIER SAYING HOW EASY

947
00:24:25,020 --> 00:24:26,440
IT IS TO WIN MONEY.

948
00:24:26,519 --> 00:24:28,259
THOUGH YOU SHOULD KNOW, AFTER WE

949
00:24:28,259 --> 00:24:29,259
ASKED, AND HE TOLD US HE WAS

950
00:24:29,308 --> 00:24:31,574
PAID BY KALSHI FOR THAT POST.

951
00:24:31,574 --> 00:24:32,574
AND IT FEELS LIKE INFLUENCERS

952
00:24:32,679 --> 00:24:34,199
SHOULD BE MORE TRANSPARENT ABOUT

953
00:24:34,199 --> 00:24:34,764
THAT.

954
00:24:34,764 --> 00:24:35,788
IT MAKES ME A LITTLE ANNOYED.

955
00:24:35,788 --> 00:24:37,000
AND EVEN MORE HUNGRY.

956
00:24:37,120 --> 00:24:38,600
AND WHEN I NEED SOMETHING

957
00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:40,602
NUTRITIOUS, YET IN A CAN, I KNOW

958
00:24:40,602 --> 00:24:41,075
WHERE TO TURN: BUSH'S BAKED

959
00:24:41,075 --> 00:24:44,773
BEANS.

960
00:24:44,860 --> 00:24:47,199
BUT FULL DISCLOSURE, I WAS PAID

961
00:24:47,199 --> 00:24:48,719
$40 TO SAY THAT.

962
00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:51,188
BUT IT'S WORTH KNOWING THAT, IN

963
00:24:51,270 --> 00:24:53,040
REALITY, AS WITH SPORTSBOOKS,

964
00:24:53,122 --> 00:24:55,509
RESEARCHERS HAVE FOUND THAT MOST

965
00:24:55,592 --> 00:24:57,362
USERS OF KALSHI AND POLYMARKET

966
00:24:57,444 --> 00:24:58,597
LOSE MONEY.

967
00:24:58,679 --> 00:24:59,960
AS WE'VE DISCUSSED BEFORE,

968
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:01,820
CASUAL GAMBLERS ARE ALWAYS GOING

969
00:25:01,820 --> 00:25:03,639
TO BE EASY PREY FOR MORE

970
00:25:03,639 --> 00:25:04,659
SOPHISTICATED OPERATORS WITH

971
00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:06,620
ADVANCED SYSTEMS TO GIVE THEM AN

972
00:25:06,620 --> 00:25:07,000
EDGE.

973
00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:08,299
WHICH IS PROBABLY WHY, WHILE

974
00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:10,179
POLYMARKET HAS MORE THAN TWO

975
00:25:10,179 --> 00:25:12,219
MILLION USERS, ONE ANALYSIS

976
00:25:12,219 --> 00:25:13,970
FOUND MORE THAN TWO-THIRDS OF

977
00:25:13,970 --> 00:25:15,940
ALL MONEY WON ON IT WAS HELD BY

978
00:25:15,940 --> 00:25:17,860
JUST 740 ACCOUNTS.

979
00:25:18,280 --> 00:25:19,620
AND IF YOU'RE THINKING, "HOW,

980
00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:21,740
EXACTLY, ARE THESE COMPANIES

981
00:25:21,740 --> 00:25:23,400
GETTING AWAY WITH THIS?"

982
00:25:23,460 --> 00:25:25,440
WELL, A LOT HAS TO DO WITH WHO'S

983
00:25:25,440 --> 00:25:26,780
IN THE WHITE HOUSE RIGHT NOW.

984
00:25:27,380 --> 00:25:28,659
BOTH COMPANIES HAVE FOSTERED

985
00:25:28,659 --> 00:25:29,980
STRONG CONNECTIONS WITH THE

986
00:25:29,980 --> 00:25:31,159
TRUMP FAMILY -- IN FACT, DON JR.

987
00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:32,719
IS BOTH AN INVESTOR IN AND AN

988
00:25:32,719 --> 00:25:34,340
UNPAID ADVISER TO POLYMARKET,

989
00:25:34,440 --> 00:25:36,630
AND A PAID ADVISER TO KALSHI.

990
00:25:36,630 --> 00:25:38,659
AND LOOK, I'M NOT SAYING THAT

991
00:25:38,659 --> 00:25:40,300
DON JR. ISN'T PROVIDING

992
00:25:40,300 --> 00:25:42,290
IMPORTANT OR VALUABLE INSIGHTS

993
00:25:42,290 --> 00:25:44,880
-- THOUGH, IN A TRUER SENSE, I

994
00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:45,880
VERY MUCH AM.

995
00:25:46,219 --> 00:25:48,460
I'M JUST SAYING, IT'S NOTABLE

996
00:25:48,460 --> 00:25:50,060
JUST HOW HARD IT WAS FOR

997
00:25:50,220 --> 00:25:51,639
KALSHI'S CEO TO ANSWER A SERIES

998
00:25:51,639 --> 00:25:53,609
OF BASIC QUESTIONS ABOUT

999
00:25:53,609 --> 00:25:54,487
DON JR.'S ROLE.

1000
00:25:54,487 --> 00:25:55,961
>> WHY DID YOU GUYS MAKE

1001
00:25:55,961 --> 00:25:56,612
DONALD TRUMP JR. A STRATEGIC

1002
00:25:56,612 --> 00:25:58,531
ADVISOR?

1003
00:25:58,599 --> 00:25:59,880
>> WE HAVE A LOT OF ADVISORS,

1004
00:26:00,050 --> 00:26:03,711
AND THEY SPAN ACROSS THE BOARD,

1005
00:26:03,880 --> 00:26:04,880
ACROSS DIFFERENT FUNCTIONS.

1006
00:26:05,699 --> 00:26:07,840
BUT REALLY, THIS IS ALL ABOUT

1007
00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:09,280
GROWING THIS INDUSTRY, THE

1008
00:26:09,300 --> 00:26:10,300
PREDICTION MARKET INDUSTRY, THAT

1009
00:26:10,460 --> 00:26:11,480
A LOT OF PEOPLE REALLY BELIEVE

1010
00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:12,064
IN.

1011
00:26:12,064 --> 00:26:12,648
>> WHAT KIND OF ADVICE DOES HE

1012
00:26:12,648 --> 00:26:14,917
GIVE YOU?

1013
00:26:14,917 --> 00:26:15,917
>> SO, IT REALLY IS, AGAIN,

1014
00:26:15,917 --> 00:26:16,441
ABOUT GROWING PREDICTION

1015
00:26:16,441 --> 00:26:17,835
MARKETS.

1016
00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:18,940
YOU KNOW, HE BELIEVES IN

1017
00:26:18,940 --> 00:26:19,400
PREDICTION MARKETS.

1018
00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:19,900
WE BELIEVE IN PREDICTION

1019
00:26:19,900 --> 00:26:20,400
MARKETS.

1020
00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:21,300
A LOT OF PEOPLE BELIEVE IN

1021
00:26:21,300 --> 00:26:22,580
PREDICTION MARKETS, AND IT'S

1022
00:26:22,580 --> 00:26:23,719
REALLY ABOUT GO-TO-MARKET AND

1023
00:26:23,719 --> 00:26:24,489
EXPANSION PLANS.

1024
00:26:24,489 --> 00:26:26,060
>> DOES HE COME TO MEETINGS?

1025
00:26:26,219 --> 00:26:27,380
HOW MUCH DO YOU PAY HIM?

1026
00:26:27,399 --> 00:26:28,300
WHAT'S HIS ROLE?

1027
00:26:28,300 --> 00:26:29,260
I MEAN, THIS IS THE SON OF THE

1028
00:26:29,260 --> 00:26:30,220
PRESIDENT.

1029
00:26:30,220 --> 00:26:31,260
>> WE, AGAIN, I MEAN, WE HAVE A

1030
00:26:31,260 --> 00:26:32,120
LOT OF ADVISORS.

1031
00:26:32,120 --> 00:26:33,120
AND WHETHER IT'S OUR INVESTORS,

1032
00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:34,740
WHETHER IT'S PEOPLE THAT WE

1033
00:26:34,740 --> 00:26:36,120
REALLY TRUST AND RESPECT,

1034
00:26:36,120 --> 00:26:36,503
WHETHER PEOPLE --

1035
00:26:36,503 --> 00:26:36,983
>> BUT HE'S NOT JUST ANY

1036
00:26:36,983 --> 00:26:37,978
ADVISOR.

1037
00:26:37,978 --> 00:26:38,542
HE HAS A DIRECT LINE TO THE

1038
00:26:38,542 --> 00:26:41,393
WHITE HOUSE.

1039
00:26:41,460 --> 00:26:42,460
>> WE HAVE A LOT OF ADVISORS.

1040
00:26:42,519 --> 00:26:44,239
>> John: YEAH, TURNS OUT IT'S

1041
00:26:45,460 --> 00:26:47,179
PRETTY HARD TO JUSTIFY HIRING A

1042
00:26:47,179 --> 00:26:49,340
NEPO BABY, OR IN DON JR.'S CASE

1043
00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:50,960
"A NEPO DIVORCED DAD."

1044
00:26:51,179 --> 00:26:53,139
BUT THE THING IS, IF HIRING

1045
00:26:53,139 --> 00:26:54,639
DON JR. HELPED GET THESE

1046
00:26:54,639 --> 00:26:55,760
COMPANIES ON TRUMP'S GOOD SIDE,

1047
00:26:55,840 --> 00:26:56,840
IT'S A BET THAT'S PAID OFF

1048
00:26:56,840 --> 00:26:58,080
MASSIVELY FOR THEM.

1049
00:26:58,100 --> 00:26:58,900
BECAUSE WHILE THE BIDEN

1050
00:26:58,900 --> 00:26:59,800
ADMINISTRATION HAD AT LEAST

1051
00:26:59,800 --> 00:27:01,780
TRIED TO REIN IN SOME OF WHAT

1052
00:27:01,780 --> 00:27:02,669
THESE MARKETS WERE DOING, THE

1053
00:27:02,669 --> 00:27:04,659
TRUMP ADMINISTRATION'S GONE HARD

1054
00:27:04,659 --> 00:27:05,679
IN THE OTHER DIRECTION.

1055
00:27:05,980 --> 00:27:07,159
AND TO UNDERSTAND THE DEGREE TO

1056
00:27:07,159 --> 00:27:08,245
WHICH THAT'S THE CASE, TAKE A

1057
00:27:08,245 --> 00:27:10,500
LOOK AT THE CFTC, OR COMMODITY

1058
00:27:10,500 --> 00:27:11,800
FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION.

1059
00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:13,759
IT REGULATES THESE PLATFORMS.

1060
00:27:13,759 --> 00:27:14,679
AND IT WAS ACTUALLY EMPOWERED,

1061
00:27:14,679 --> 00:27:16,139
UNDER THE DODD-FRANK ACT IN

1062
00:27:16,139 --> 00:27:18,300
2010, TO BLOCK EVENT CONTRACTS

1063
00:27:18,300 --> 00:27:19,500
ABOUT TERRORISM, ASSASSINATION,

1064
00:27:20,340 --> 00:27:22,000
WAR, AND GAMING -- Y'KNOW, A

1065
00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:23,560
BUNCH OF WHAT YOU'VE SEEN SO

1066
00:27:23,560 --> 00:27:24,359
FAR TONIGHT.

1067
00:27:24,359 --> 00:27:26,400
BUT IT'S CLEARLY NOT ENFORCING

1068
00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:27,383
THAT RULE UNDER TRUMP, AND

1069
00:27:27,383 --> 00:27:28,383
DOESN'T EVEN SEEM TO BE TRYING.

1070
00:27:28,420 --> 00:27:29,420
IN FACT, WHILE THE CFTC'S

1071
00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:31,179
SUPPOSED TO BE COMPRISED OF FIVE

1072
00:27:31,179 --> 00:27:32,660
COMMISSIONERS, TWO OF WHOM ARE

1073
00:27:32,660 --> 00:27:33,579
REQUIRED TO BELONG TO THE

1074
00:27:33,579 --> 00:27:35,647
MINORITY PARTY, IT CURRENTLY

1075
00:27:35,711 --> 00:27:37,115
ONLY HAS THIS GUY,

1076
00:27:37,180 --> 00:27:39,073
MICHAEL SELIG, A TRUMP APPOINTEE

1077
00:27:39,139 --> 00:27:41,440
WHO'S A MASSIVE CHEERLEADER FOR

1078
00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:42,199
THIS INDUSTRY.

1079
00:27:42,199 --> 00:27:44,109
HE COMPLETELY BUYS INTO THEIR

1080
00:27:44,109 --> 00:27:45,820
WHOLE "THIS IS ALL ABOUT HEDGING

1081
00:27:45,820 --> 00:27:47,679
RISK" ARGUMENT, TO THE POINT HE

1082
00:27:47,679 --> 00:27:48,679
ONCE SUGGESTED THAT SOMEBODY

1083
00:27:48,679 --> 00:27:49,939
WITH A MEDICAL CONDITION COULD

1084
00:27:49,939 --> 00:27:51,890
MANAGE THE POTENTIAL RISK OF

1085
00:27:51,890 --> 00:27:52,880
HAVING A FUTURE TREATMENT OR

1086
00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:55,020
MEDICAL COSTS BY PLACING A BET

1087
00:27:55,020 --> 00:27:56,260
ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOMETHING

1088
00:27:56,260 --> 00:27:57,600
PASSING A DRUG TRIAL.

1089
00:27:57,659 --> 00:27:59,199
WHICH IS, AND I DON'T SAY THIS

1090
00:27:59,620 --> 00:28:01,040
LIGHTLY, ONE OF THE MOST FUCKED

1091
00:28:01,040 --> 00:28:03,240
UP SUGGESTIONS I'VE EVER HEARD

1092
00:28:03,240 --> 00:28:04,880
FOR THIS COUNTRY'S GUERNICA-ASS

1093
00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:05,880
HEALTHCARE SYSTEM.

1094
00:28:06,639 --> 00:28:08,020
AND WHILE SELIG'S RECENTLY MADE

1095
00:28:08,020 --> 00:28:08,960
NOISES ABOUT STRONGER

1096
00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:10,659
ENFORCEMENT, IT'S HARD TO TAKE

1097
00:28:10,659 --> 00:28:12,400
HIM AT HIS WORD, GIVEN THAT,

1098
00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:12,960
DURING HIS CONFIRMATION

1099
00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:14,860
HEARINGS, HE TOLD CONGRESS HE'D

1100
00:28:14,860 --> 00:28:16,639
LET COURTS DECIDE WHETHER THESE

1101
00:28:16,639 --> 00:28:18,159
COMPANIES CONSTITUTE GAMBLING.

1102
00:28:18,520 --> 00:28:20,260
BUT IN OFFICE, HE'S DONE THE

1103
00:28:20,260 --> 00:28:22,199
EXACT OPPOSITE -- IN FACT, MORE

1104
00:28:22,199 --> 00:28:23,380
THAN A DOZEN STATES ARE

1105
00:28:23,380 --> 00:28:24,320
CURRENTLY SUING PREDICTION

1106
00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:26,520
MARKETS, BUT RATHER THAN LET

1107
00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:27,860
THAT PLAY OUT IN THE COURTS LIKE

1108
00:28:28,120 --> 00:28:30,380
HE PROMISED, SELIG POSTED THIS

1109
00:28:30,380 --> 00:28:30,787
VIDEO.

1110
00:28:30,787 --> 00:28:31,787
>> TO THOSE WHO SEEK TO

1111
00:28:31,829 --> 00:28:36,449
CHALLENGE OUR AUTHORITY IN THIS

1112
00:28:36,449 --> 00:28:37,179
SPACE, LET ME BE CLEAR: WE WILL

1113
00:28:37,179 --> 00:28:39,119
SEE YOU IN COURT.

1114
00:28:39,181 --> 00:28:42,276
>> John: WHAT A FUCKING WEASEL.

1115
00:28:42,340 --> 00:28:44,940
THAT GUY HAS BOTH THE ENERGY AND

1116
00:28:44,940 --> 00:28:46,360
FASHION SENSE OF A "SUITS"

1117
00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:48,060
VILLAIN WHO GOES TOE-TO-TOE WITH

1118
00:28:48,060 --> 00:28:49,460
HARVEY AND MIKE ALL SEASON LONG

1119
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:50,900
WHILE LOUIS AND MEGHAN MARKLE --

1120
00:28:50,900 --> 00:28:51,719
I DON'T CARE WHAT YOU SAY,

1121
00:28:51,719 --> 00:28:52,800
THAT'S HER CHARACTER NAME TO ME

1122
00:28:52,920 --> 00:28:53,920
-- WATCH ON.

1123
00:28:54,719 --> 00:28:55,800
BUT HE'S DONE MORE THAN JUST

1124
00:28:55,800 --> 00:28:57,080
THREATEN -- SELIG'S LED HIS

1125
00:28:57,080 --> 00:28:59,400
AGENCY TO SUE THREE STATES TO

1126
00:28:59,420 --> 00:29:01,080
GET THEM TO BACK OFF TRYING TO

1127
00:29:01,080 --> 00:29:02,280
REGULATE PREDICTION MARKETS.

1128
00:29:02,380 --> 00:29:04,080
SO RIGHT NOW, THESE COMPANIES

1129
00:29:04,080 --> 00:29:05,080
ARE ABLE TO OPERATE UNDER

1130
00:29:05,679 --> 00:29:07,080
EXTREMELY FRIENDLY CONDITIONS.

1131
00:29:07,159 --> 00:29:08,540
AND GIVEN THAT, IT'S WORTH

1132
00:29:08,540 --> 00:29:09,819
LOOKING AT SOME OF THE PROBLEMS

1133
00:29:09,819 --> 00:29:11,339
THAT'VE ALREADY BEGUN TO EMERGE.

1134
00:29:11,420 --> 00:29:12,620
STARTING WITH THE FACT THAT, FOR

1135
00:29:12,620 --> 00:29:13,679
A LOT OF THESE BETS, IT'S

1136
00:29:13,679 --> 00:29:15,740
INCREDIBLY EASY FOR INDIVIDUALS

1137
00:29:15,740 --> 00:29:17,440
TO MANIPULATE THE OUTCOMES.

1138
00:29:17,780 --> 00:29:19,029
SOME HAVE EVEN JOKED ABOUT THAT

1139
00:29:19,029 --> 00:29:20,060
-- FOR INSTANCE, ON A RECENT

1140
00:29:20,060 --> 00:29:21,340
EARNINGS CALL, THE CEO OF

1141
00:29:21,340 --> 00:29:22,600
COINBASE SAID THIS.

1142
00:29:22,666 --> 00:29:23,666
>> I WAS A LITTLE DISTRACTED

1143
00:29:23,692 --> 00:29:24,692
BECAUSE I WAS TRACKING THE

1144
00:29:25,100 --> 00:29:26,340
PREDICTION MARKET ABOUT WHAT

1145
00:29:26,340 --> 00:29:27,480
COINBASE WILL SAY ON THEIR NEXT

1146
00:29:27,480 --> 00:29:28,800
EARNINGS CALL, AND I JUST WANT

1147
00:29:30,320 --> 00:29:32,320
TO ADD HERE THE WORDS BITCOIN,

1148
00:29:32,540 --> 00:29:34,620
ETHEREUM, BLOCKCHAIN, STAKING,

1149
00:29:35,179 --> 00:29:37,440
AND WEB3 TO MAKE SURE WE GET

1150
00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:38,340
THOSE IN BEFORE THE END OF THE

1151
00:29:38,340 --> 00:29:38,892
CALL.

1152
00:29:38,892 --> 00:29:39,727
>> John: YEAH, HE SAW PEOPLE'S

1153
00:29:39,727 --> 00:29:42,974
BETS ONLINE AND JUST RATTLED OFF

1154
00:29:43,068 --> 00:29:44,366
WORDS THEY'D BET ON HIM SAYING.

1155
00:29:44,366 --> 00:29:45,240
AND IT REALLY FEELS LIKE

1156
00:29:45,240 --> 00:29:46,820
MANIPULATING BETTING OUTCOMES

1157
00:29:46,820 --> 00:29:48,760
SHOULD BE MORE DIFFICULT THAN

1158
00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:49,400
THAT.

1159
00:29:49,400 --> 00:29:51,020
IN THE OLD DAYS YOU AT LEAST HAD

1160
00:29:51,020 --> 00:29:53,470
TO SNEAK COCAINE TO A RACE

1161
00:29:53,470 --> 00:29:55,639
HORSE, NOT JUST RATTLE OFF A

1162
00:29:55,639 --> 00:29:57,100
LIST OF THE MOST PUNCHABLE WORDS

1163
00:29:57,100 --> 00:29:58,219
IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE.

1164
00:29:58,860 --> 00:30:00,179
WE EVEN REALIZED, WHILE

1165
00:30:00,179 --> 00:30:01,179
RESEARCHING THIS PIECE, THAT

1166
00:30:01,179 --> 00:30:02,139
THERE WAS BETTING HAPPENING

1167
00:30:02,139 --> 00:30:03,520
AROUND THIS SHOW --

1168
00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:05,240
SPECIFICALLY, ON WHAT WORDS I'D

1169
00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:06,480
SAY DURING OUR SHOW

1170
00:30:06,480 --> 00:30:07,480
ON FEBRUARY 22.

1171
00:30:07,679 --> 00:30:09,679
WHICH IS STUPID FOR MULTIPLE

1172
00:30:09,679 --> 00:30:11,188
REASONS, INCLUDING THAT WE TAPE

1173
00:30:11,188 --> 00:30:12,191
ON SATURDAY, IN FRONT OF A

1174
00:30:12,480 --> 00:30:15,229
STUDIO AUDIENCE, ALL OF WHOM

1175
00:30:15,229 --> 00:30:16,679
WOULD THEN HAVE A MASSIVE

1176
00:30:16,679 --> 00:30:18,600
INFORMATION ADVANTAGE AND MORE

1177
00:30:18,600 --> 00:30:20,679
THAN 24 HOURS BEFORE THE BETTING

1178
00:30:20,679 --> 00:30:21,580
WINDOW CLOSED.

1179
00:30:21,580 --> 00:30:23,719
NOW, THANKFULLY, WE WIPE EVERY

1180
00:30:23,719 --> 00:30:25,120
AUDIENCE MEMBER'S MEMORY BEFORE

1181
00:30:25,480 --> 00:30:26,900
WE LET THEM OUT OF THE TAPING.

1182
00:30:26,960 --> 00:30:29,240
WE TRY TO ERASE ONLY THE LAST

1183
00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:30,440
COUPLE OF HOURS BUT SOMETIMES WE

1184
00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:31,699
DO WIPE CLEAN A MILESTONE

1185
00:30:31,699 --> 00:30:32,360
BIRTHDAY.

1186
00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:33,020
THAT'S ON US AND WE'RE

1187
00:30:33,020 --> 00:30:34,520
CONSTANTLY CALIBRATING THE

1188
00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:35,179
TECHNOLOGY.

1189
00:30:35,179 --> 00:30:36,040
YOU'VE BEEN WARNED.

1190
00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:37,740
YOU WON'T REMEMBER, BUT YOU WERE

1191
00:30:37,800 --> 00:30:38,510
WARNED.

1192
00:30:38,510 --> 00:30:40,907
AND THERE ARE MARKETS WHERE IT'S

1193
00:30:41,679 --> 00:30:43,846
WAY TOO EASY FOR ANYONE TO

1194
00:30:43,846 --> 00:30:44,719
MANIPULATE OUTCOMES.

1195
00:30:44,719 --> 00:30:45,900
JUST LAST SUMMER, YOU MIGHT

1196
00:30:45,900 --> 00:30:47,179
REMEMBER, A BUNCH OF ASSHOLES

1197
00:30:47,179 --> 00:30:48,980
STARTED THROWING DILDOS ON THE

1198
00:30:48,980 --> 00:30:51,060
COURT DURING WNBA GAMES TO

1199
00:30:51,060 --> 00:30:52,760
PROMOTE A CRYPTO MEME COIN.

1200
00:30:52,840 --> 00:30:54,560
AND IF THAT WASN'T ALREADY A

1201
00:30:54,560 --> 00:30:57,300
CURSED ENOUGH SENTENCE, I'LL LET

1202
00:30:57,300 --> 00:30:58,740
THIS SOUTH AFRICAN MAN FILL YOU

1203
00:30:58,740 --> 00:30:59,740
IN ON WHAT HAPPENED NEXT.

1204
00:30:59,906 --> 00:31:00,923
>> DID YOU KNOW THAT YOU CAN

1205
00:31:00,970 --> 00:31:03,052
ACTUALLY BET ON WHETHER A DILDO

1206
00:31:03,100 --> 00:31:06,400
WILL BE THROWN AT THE WNBA GAME

1207
00:31:06,400 --> 00:31:10,719
ON AUGUST 9, AUGUST 11 -- THAT'S

1208
00:31:10,719 --> 00:31:12,600
TODAY -- AND AUGUST 12.

1209
00:31:13,179 --> 00:31:15,420
RIGHT HERE ON POLYMARKET.

1210
00:31:16,040 --> 00:31:17,820
I HAD NO IDEA, ACTUALLY I HAD NO

1211
00:31:17,820 --> 00:31:19,820
IDEA WHAT THE WNBA WAS EITHER,

1212
00:31:19,820 --> 00:31:23,480
UNTIL, Y'KNOW, YOU COULD PLACE A

1213
00:31:23,480 --> 00:31:24,639
BET ON WHETHER A DILDO WOULD BE

1214
00:31:24,639 --> 00:31:25,540
THROWN AT IT.

1215
00:31:25,540 --> 00:31:26,699
>> John: YEAH, NONE OF THAT'S

1216
00:31:26,699 --> 00:31:27,060
GREAT.

1217
00:31:27,060 --> 00:31:29,179
AND IT'S PRETTY DEPRESSING THAT

1218
00:31:29,179 --> 00:31:30,170
THE WAY HE LEARNED ABOUT THE

1219
00:31:30,170 --> 00:31:32,620
EXISTENCE OF THE WNBA WAS

1220
00:31:32,620 --> 00:31:33,639
FINDING OUT YOU COULD BET ON

1221
00:31:33,639 --> 00:31:35,079
WHETHER A DILDO WOULD BE THROWN

1222
00:31:35,079 --> 00:31:36,119
AT ONE OF ITS GAMES.

1223
00:31:36,580 --> 00:31:37,580
IT'D BE LIKE FINDING OUT ABOUT

1224
00:31:37,580 --> 00:31:38,960
THE EXISTENCE OF ROBERT DE NIRO

1225
00:31:38,960 --> 00:31:41,020
BY GOOGLING "THE CAST OF DIRTY

1226
00:31:41,020 --> 00:31:41,620
GRANDPA."

1227
00:31:41,620 --> 00:31:42,620
AW, NO.

1228
00:31:43,740 --> 00:31:44,740
NOT LIKE THIS.

1229
00:31:45,039 --> 00:31:47,099
DON'T LEARN ABOUT HIM LIKE THIS.

1230
00:31:47,699 --> 00:31:50,100
BUT IT'S TRUE -- PEOPLE STARTED

1231
00:31:50,100 --> 00:31:51,840
BETTING WHETHER DILDOS WOULD BE

1232
00:31:52,472 --> 00:31:53,614
THROWN AGAIN, AND POLYMARKET

1233
00:31:53,668 --> 00:31:54,810
EVEN PUT UP THIS TWEET PROMOTING

1234
00:31:54,863 --> 00:31:56,005
THE BETS.

1235
00:31:56,060 --> 00:31:58,380
AND SURE ENOUGH, MORE DILDOS GOT

1236
00:31:58,380 --> 00:32:00,080
THROWN -- AND THAT COULD WELL

1237
00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:01,689
HAVE BEEN BECAUSE POLYMARKET HAD

1238
00:32:01,689 --> 00:32:02,979
JUST CREATED A SITUATION WHERE

1239
00:32:02,979 --> 00:32:05,460
YOU COULD EASILY MAKE MONEY BY

1240
00:32:05,460 --> 00:32:06,659
BETTING SOMEONE WOULD THROW A

1241
00:32:06,659 --> 00:32:08,260
DILDO, AND THEN GOING TO A GAME

1242
00:32:08,260 --> 00:32:10,520
WITH A DILDO AND THROWING IT.

1243
00:32:10,940 --> 00:32:12,179
THERE'VE ALSO BEEN MULTIPLE

1244
00:32:12,179 --> 00:32:13,560
INSTANCES OF PEOPLE SEEMING TO

1245
00:32:13,560 --> 00:32:15,480
USE INSIDE INFORMATION TO GAME

1246
00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:16,054
THESE MARKETS.

1247
00:32:16,054 --> 00:32:16,924
LAST YEAR, A TRADER MADE $1.2

1248
00:32:16,924 --> 00:32:17,413
MILLION WITH A SET OF ACCURATE

1249
00:32:17,413 --> 00:32:20,772
BETS ABOUT WHO'D BE GOOGLE'S

1250
00:32:20,772 --> 00:32:22,080
RANKINGS OF THE MOST-SEARCHED

1251
00:32:22,080 --> 00:32:23,699
PEOPLE OF 2025 -- THAT SAME

1252
00:32:23,699 --> 00:32:24,745
PERSON, BY THE WAY, HAD

1253
00:32:24,745 --> 00:32:25,273
PREVIOUSLY EARNED MORE THAN

1254
00:32:25,273 --> 00:32:27,188
$100,000 BY CORRECTLY BETTING ON

1255
00:32:27,260 --> 00:32:29,849
THE RELEASE DATE OF GOOGLE'S

1256
00:32:30,840 --> 00:32:31,840
GEMINI 3 MODEL.

1257
00:32:31,900 --> 00:32:33,679
WHICH MAKES YOU THINK THAT

1258
00:32:33,679 --> 00:32:35,260
PERSON EITHER WORKED FOR GOOGLE,

1259
00:32:35,719 --> 00:32:37,740
OR KNEW SOMEONE WHO DID, OR

1260
00:32:37,980 --> 00:32:39,740
MAYBE MANAGED TO HACK GOOGLE

1261
00:32:39,740 --> 00:32:41,760
FROM THE OUTSIDE, IN WHICH CASE,

1262
00:32:41,960 --> 00:32:43,139
WOULD IT KILL YOU TO DO A GOOGLE

1263
00:32:43,139 --> 00:32:44,219
DOODLE FOR MY BIRTHDAY.

1264
00:32:46,223 --> 00:32:47,631
IT'S ON THURSDAY.

1265
00:32:47,697 --> 00:32:49,104
AND POLYMARKET'S CEO HAS, IN THE

1266
00:32:49,169 --> 00:32:51,559
PAST, OPENLY CELEBRATED THE FACT

1267
00:32:51,559 --> 00:32:52,559
THIS KIND OF THING CAN HAPPEN ON

1268
00:32:52,606 --> 00:32:53,837
HIS PLATFORM, BECAUSE HE'S

1269
00:32:53,837 --> 00:32:55,320
ARGUED IT JUST MAKES ITS

1270
00:32:55,320 --> 00:32:57,080
PREDICTION ABILITIES THAT MUCH

1271
00:32:57,080 --> 00:32:57,636
STRONGER.

1272
00:32:57,636 --> 00:33:00,440
>> WHAT DO YOU GUYS DO, IF

1273
00:33:00,440 --> 00:33:01,540
ANYTHING, TO BASICALLY GUARD

1274
00:33:01,540 --> 00:33:02,329
AGAINST INSIDER TRADING?

1275
00:33:02,329 --> 00:33:03,437
>> YEAH.

1276
00:33:03,489 --> 00:33:05,369
SO, IT GOES BACK TO THIS IDEA OF

1277
00:33:05,420 --> 00:33:06,619
INFORMATIONAL MARKETS, RIGHT?

1278
00:33:06,679 --> 00:33:09,900
LIKE, YOU THINK ABOUT WHEN WILL

1279
00:33:09,900 --> 00:33:10,900
GEMINI 3 LAUNCH?

1280
00:33:11,359 --> 00:33:13,119
NOBODY IS UNDER THE IMPRESSION

1281
00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:14,580
THAT NOBODY KNOWS THE ANSWER,

1282
00:33:14,840 --> 00:33:15,380
RIGHT?

1283
00:33:15,380 --> 00:33:16,700
LIKE, OF COURSE, THERE'S PEOPLE

1284
00:33:16,700 --> 00:33:17,899
WHO ARE WORKING ON IT WHO KNOW

1285
00:33:17,899 --> 00:33:18,899
WHEN IT'S GONNA COME.

1286
00:33:19,100 --> 00:33:20,880
AND I THINK WHAT'S COOL ABOUT

1287
00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:23,220
POLYMARKET IS THAT IT CREATES

1288
00:33:23,220 --> 00:33:24,680
THIS FINANCIAL INCENTIVE FOR

1289
00:33:24,940 --> 00:33:26,200
PEOPLE TO GO AND DIVULGE THE

1290
00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:27,200
INFORMATION TO THE MARKET, AND

1291
00:33:27,200 --> 00:33:28,200
THE MARKET TO CHANGE, AND ALL OF

1292
00:33:28,360 --> 00:33:29,680
A SUDDEN IT'S TRADING AT $.95

1293
00:33:29,680 --> 00:33:30,596
CENTS, AND PEOPLE ARE LIKE, OH

1294
00:33:30,596 --> 00:33:31,295
--

1295
00:33:31,295 --> 00:33:32,022
>> I MEAN, YOU -- WHEN YOU SAY

1296
00:33:32,022 --> 00:33:32,680
DIVULGE, YOU MEAN THE PEOPLE WHO

1297
00:33:32,680 --> 00:33:33,296
ACTUALLY KNOW?

1298
00:33:33,296 --> 00:33:35,308
>> YEAH, OR SOMEONE TELLS

1299
00:33:35,308 --> 00:33:35,846
SOMEONE AND THEN THE MARKET

1300
00:33:35,846 --> 00:33:36,073
RESPONDS.

1301
00:33:36,073 --> 00:33:37,065
>> John: YEAH, HE BASICALLY JUST

1302
00:33:37,065 --> 00:33:38,284
ANSWERED THE QUESTION "HOW DO

1303
00:33:38,340 --> 00:33:42,108
YOU GUARD AGAINST INSIDER

1304
00:33:42,108 --> 00:33:42,620
TRADING" THERE WITH "NO."

1305
00:33:42,620 --> 00:33:44,800
AND HE DID IT WITH A FASHION

1306
00:33:44,800 --> 00:33:46,520
CHOICE SOMEHOW EVEN WORSE THAN

1307
00:33:46,520 --> 00:33:48,639
HIS BIKER JACKET, BECAUSE WHAT

1308
00:33:48,639 --> 00:33:51,177
IN THE NYU ARMY FATIGUES IS THAT

1309
00:33:51,177 --> 00:33:52,302
SHIT?

1310
00:33:52,380 --> 00:33:53,639
THAT SWEATER LOOKS LIKE IT WAS

1311
00:33:53,639 --> 00:33:55,000
MADE FROM ILLEGALLY POACHED

1312
00:33:55,000 --> 00:33:55,800
GRIMACE.

1313
00:33:55,800 --> 00:33:58,280
BUT ALSO, I DON'T CARE HOW MANY

1314
00:33:58,280 --> 00:34:00,159
STATEMENT SWEATERS YOU WEAR OR

1315
00:34:00,159 --> 00:34:01,820
HOW MANY "BEN PLATT IN DEAR EVAN

1316
00:34:01,820 --> 00:34:03,139
HANSEN" HAIRCUTS YOU HAVE -

1317
00:34:03,419 --> 00:34:05,399
YOU'RE NOT DESCRIBING SOME EDGY

1318
00:34:05,580 --> 00:34:06,940
CHILL WAY TO DIVULGE INFORMATION

1319
00:34:06,940 --> 00:34:07,600
TO THE MARKET.

1320
00:34:07,600 --> 00:34:09,199
YOU'RE DESCRIBING INSIDER

1321
00:34:09,199 --> 00:34:10,199
TRADING.

1322
00:34:10,199 --> 00:34:11,800
AND IT GETS GENUINELY CHILLING

1323
00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:13,080
WHEN YOU REALIZE THAT PEOPLE

1324
00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:14,980
SEEM TO BE USING INSIDER INFO TO

1325
00:34:14,980 --> 00:34:16,699
BET ON LIFE-OR-DEATH EVENTS.

1326
00:34:17,020 --> 00:34:18,560
IN JANUARY, AFTER THE U.S.

1327
00:34:18,580 --> 00:34:19,909
SEIZED NICOLAS MADURO, AN

1328
00:34:19,909 --> 00:34:21,279
ANONYMOUS TRADER POCKETED MORE

1329
00:34:21,279 --> 00:34:23,540
THAN $400,000 OFF BETS THAT

1330
00:34:23,540 --> 00:34:24,960
WOULD HAPPEN, WITH THE BULK OF

1331
00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:26,719
THOSE BETS MADE MERE HOURS

1332
00:34:26,719 --> 00:34:28,179
BEFORE THE RAID WAS ANNOUNCED.

1333
00:34:28,380 --> 00:34:29,940
IN FEBRUARY, TWO ISRAELIS WERE

1334
00:34:29,940 --> 00:34:30,880
CHARGED WITH USING CLASSIFIED

1335
00:34:30,880 --> 00:34:32,569
MILITARY INFORMATION TO PLACE

1336
00:34:32,569 --> 00:34:33,569
BETS ON POLYMARKET.

1337
00:34:33,639 --> 00:34:35,260
AND IN MARCH, THIS HAPPENED.

1338
00:34:35,366 --> 00:34:37,654
>> DEADLY AMERICAN STRIKES, AND

1339
00:34:38,000 --> 00:34:39,739
SOME PEOPLE MAY HAVE MADE MONEY

1340
00:34:39,739 --> 00:34:40,620
FROM THEM.

1341
00:34:40,620 --> 00:34:41,819
MORE THAN A DOZEN ANONYMOUS

1342
00:34:41,819 --> 00:34:43,359
ACCOUNTS PLACED BETS PREDICTING

1343
00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:44,819
THAT THE UNITED STATES WOULD

1344
00:34:44,819 --> 00:34:47,179
STRIKE IRAN BY SATURDAY THE 28TH

1345
00:34:47,179 --> 00:34:48,120
OF FEBRUARY.

1346
00:34:48,120 --> 00:34:49,819
MOST OF THOSE WAGERS WERE PLACED

1347
00:34:49,819 --> 00:34:51,359
IN THE HOURS BEFORE THE FIRST

1348
00:34:51,359 --> 00:34:52,359
BOMBS FELL.

1349
00:34:52,620 --> 00:34:53,800
AND MANY OF THE ACCOUNTS HAD

1350
00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:55,719
BEEN CREATED ONLY DAYS EARLIER.

1351
00:34:56,159 --> 00:34:57,600
ONE OF THE BIGGEST WINNERS USED

1352
00:34:57,600 --> 00:34:59,540
THE ACCOUNT NAME "MAGAMYMAN."

1353
00:34:59,899 --> 00:35:02,580
THE TRADER PLACED $87,000 ON A

1354
00:35:02,580 --> 00:35:04,980
WAR WITH IRAN EXACTLY 71 MINUTES

1355
00:35:04,980 --> 00:35:06,859
BEFORE THE FIRST STRIKE, WINNING

1356
00:35:06,859 --> 00:35:09,580
A JACKPOT WORTH $515,000.

1357
00:35:09,654 --> 00:35:11,278
>> John: YEAH, THAT SURE FEELS

1358
00:35:11,278 --> 00:35:11,920
LIKE SOMEONE WITH INSIDE

1359
00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:12,977
INFORMATION WAS BETTING ON

1360
00:35:13,053 --> 00:35:15,243
POLYMARKET.

1361
00:35:15,319 --> 00:35:16,920
AND I'D SAY IT WASN'T A GREAT

1362
00:35:16,989 --> 00:35:20,059
IDEA TO MAKE THEIR USERNAME

1363
00:35:20,128 --> 00:35:21,128
"MAGA MY MAN," EXCEPT IT DOESN'T

1364
00:35:21,128 --> 00:35:21,699
SEEM TO MATTER ANYMORE.

1365
00:35:21,699 --> 00:35:22,499
HIS USERNAME MIGHT AS WELL HAVE

1366
00:35:22,499 --> 00:35:23,499
BEEN "MAGA MY MAN JUST KIDDING

1367
00:35:24,340 --> 00:35:25,760
MY NAME IS DYLAN BARTHWELL AND I

1368
00:35:25,760 --> 00:35:26,620
WORK AT THE DEPARTMENT OF

1369
00:35:26,620 --> 00:35:27,219
DEFENSE."

1370
00:35:27,219 --> 00:35:29,079
HE'S NOT REALLY RISKING MUCH.

1371
00:35:29,659 --> 00:35:31,139
NOW, I SHOULD SAY, KALSHI JUST

1372
00:35:31,139 --> 00:35:32,960
ANNOUNCED IT TOOK ACTION IN TWO

1373
00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:34,480
INSIDER TRADING CASES, AND HAS

1374
00:35:34,480 --> 00:35:35,920
TAKEN OUT BILLBOARDS BRAGGING

1375
00:35:35,920 --> 00:35:37,579
THAT IT BANS INSIDER TRADING,

1376
00:35:37,800 --> 00:35:39,440
AND ALSO THAT IT DOESN'T OFFER

1377
00:35:39,440 --> 00:35:40,420
DEATH MARKETS.

1378
00:35:40,420 --> 00:35:41,760
WHICH IS A LITTLE WEIRD!

1379
00:35:42,120 --> 00:35:43,460
IT'D BE LIKE MCDONALD'S PUTTING

1380
00:35:43,460 --> 00:35:45,180
UP ADS THAT ITS NUGGETS "DON'T

1381
00:35:45,180 --> 00:35:46,420
CONTAIN BABY MEAT."

1382
00:35:47,580 --> 00:35:49,779
OKAY MAMA, BUT NOW I HAVE WAY

1383
00:35:49,779 --> 00:35:50,779
MORE QUESTIONS!

1384
00:35:51,460 --> 00:35:53,060
FOR ITS PART, POLYMARKET

1385
00:35:53,060 --> 00:35:54,569
RECENTLY UPDATED ITS RULES TO

1386
00:35:54,569 --> 00:35:56,220
CLARIFY THAT USERS CAN'T ACT ON

1387
00:35:56,220 --> 00:35:57,740
STOLEN CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION,

1388
00:35:58,180 --> 00:36:00,359
WAGER USING ILLEGAL TIPS, OR BET

1389
00:36:00,359 --> 00:36:01,359
IF THEY'RE IN A POSITION TO

1390
00:36:01,359 --> 00:36:02,279
INFLUENCE THE OUTCOME OF AN

1391
00:36:02,279 --> 00:36:02,840
EVENT.

1392
00:36:02,840 --> 00:36:05,140
ALTHOUGH IT'S NOT A GREAT SIGN

1393
00:36:05,140 --> 00:36:06,620
THAT JUST RECENTLY, THERE WAS A

1394
00:36:06,620 --> 00:36:07,859
SUSPICIOUS SPIKE IN TRADING

1395
00:36:07,859 --> 00:36:09,580
RIGHT BEFORE THE CEASEFIRE WITH

1396
00:36:09,580 --> 00:36:11,180
IRAN WAS ANNOUNCED, AS A GROUP

1397
00:36:11,180 --> 00:36:12,620
OF NEW ACCOUNTS ON POLYMARKET

1398
00:36:12,620 --> 00:36:14,740
MADE HIGHLY SPECIFIC, WELL-TIMED

1399
00:36:14,740 --> 00:36:16,515
BETS ABOUT IT, EARNING HUNDREDS

1400
00:36:16,515 --> 00:36:17,720
OF THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS.

1401
00:36:18,239 --> 00:36:20,260
SO IT SURE SEEMS LIKE RIGHT NOW,

1402
00:36:20,420 --> 00:36:22,040
WE'VE EFFECTIVELY GOT GAMBLING

1403
00:36:22,040 --> 00:36:24,240
SITES OPERATING EVEN IN STATES

1404
00:36:24,240 --> 00:36:26,000
WHERE GAMBLING IS ILLEGAL, AND

1405
00:36:26,000 --> 00:36:27,020
OFFERING BETS ON THINGS THERE'VE

1406
00:36:27,020 --> 00:36:28,720
BEEN LAWS AGAINST FOR OVER A

1407
00:36:28,720 --> 00:36:29,440
DECADE.

1408
00:36:29,440 --> 00:36:31,000
SO, WHAT CAN WE DO?

1409
00:36:31,060 --> 00:36:33,160
WELL, AT THE BARE MINIMUM, THE

1410
00:36:33,160 --> 00:36:35,120
CFTC SHOULD BE DOING MORE,

1411
00:36:35,149 --> 00:36:37,547
WELL IT SAYS IT'S RUNNING WRITING NEW

1412
00:36:37,579 --> 00:36:39,119
RULES, I WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH

1413
00:36:39,332 --> 00:36:40,819
TO HAPPEN AS LONG AS THIS

1414
00:36:41,032 --> 00:36:42,305
FUCKING GUY IN CHARGE.

1415
00:36:42,520 --> 00:36:44,399
AS I SAID, THERE ARE A BUNCH OF

1416
00:36:44,399 --> 00:36:45,340
CASES MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH

1417
00:36:45,340 --> 00:36:46,399
THE COURTS RIGHT NOW, BUT IT'S

1418
00:36:46,399 --> 00:36:47,440
NOT CLEAR HOW THEY'LL RESOLVE,

1419
00:36:47,569 --> 00:36:49,180
AND IT'S PROBABLY GOING TO BE IN

1420
00:36:49,180 --> 00:36:50,340
FRONT OF THE SUPREME COURT.

1421
00:36:50,840 --> 00:36:51,859
MEANWHILE, CONGRESS IS

1422
00:36:51,859 --> 00:36:52,899
CONSIDERING A NUMBER OF

1423
00:36:52,899 --> 00:36:54,120
PROPOSALS TACKLING ASPECTS OF

1424
00:36:54,120 --> 00:36:55,480
THIS ISSUE -- ALTHOUGH, GIVEN

1425
00:36:55,940 --> 00:36:56,980
THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED

1426
00:36:57,040 --> 00:36:58,520
STATES HAS A KID CURRENTLY

1427
00:36:58,520 --> 00:37:00,700
ADVISING BOTH MAJOR COMPANIES, I

1428
00:37:00,700 --> 00:37:01,980
WOULDN'T HOLD YOUR BREATH.

1429
00:37:02,420 --> 00:37:04,300
SO MEANING POLICY SHIFTS IN THE

1430
00:37:04,300 --> 00:37:06,120
NEAR TERM SEEMS UNLIKELY.

1431
00:37:06,260 --> 00:37:07,558
BUT AT SOME POINT, WE DO NEED TO

1432
00:37:07,558 --> 00:37:07,966
PUT IN PLACE SOME BASIC

1433
00:37:07,966 --> 00:37:10,462
GUARDRAILS.

1434
00:37:10,580 --> 00:37:12,640
AND UNTIL THEN, IF WE CAN'T

1435
00:37:12,640 --> 00:37:14,500
CHANGE HOW THESE SITES OPERATE,

1436
00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:16,020
WE SHOULD AT LEAST TRY AND

1437
00:37:16,020 --> 00:37:18,220
CHANGE HOW WE INDIVIDUALLY SEE

1438
00:37:18,266 --> 00:37:19,266
THEM.

1439
00:37:19,447 --> 00:37:20,802
ONE THING THAT WOULD FRANKLY

1440
00:37:20,848 --> 00:37:21,853
HELP IS IF NEWS ORGANIZATIONS

1441
00:37:21,900 --> 00:37:23,140
STOPPED LAUNDERING THESE

1442
00:37:23,140 --> 00:37:24,560
COMPANIES' REPUTATIONS FOR THEM

1443
00:37:24,560 --> 00:37:26,380
BY PUTTING THEIR ODDS ON SCREEN

1444
00:37:26,380 --> 00:37:27,819
LIKE THEY'RE ACTUAL NEWS.

1445
00:37:27,880 --> 00:37:29,720
BECAUSE IS IT A BAD IDEA FOR

1446
00:37:29,720 --> 00:37:30,740
THEM TO BE DOING THAT?

1447
00:37:30,880 --> 00:37:32,260
IF I MAY QUOTE THE SINGLE

1448
00:37:32,260 --> 00:37:33,899
LOUDEST MAN IN THE WORLD...

1449
00:37:33,948 --> 00:37:35,791
>> YES!

1450
00:37:35,791 --> 00:37:36,220
>> John: YES.

1451
00:37:36,220 --> 00:37:37,380
EXACTLY.

1452
00:37:37,600 --> 00:37:39,180
I COULD NOT HAVE SCREAMED IT

1453
00:37:39,180 --> 00:37:40,180
BETTER MYSELF.

1454
00:37:40,500 --> 00:37:42,619
AND LOOK, ON A PERSONAL LEVEL,

1455
00:37:43,000 --> 00:37:45,040
IF YOU'RE USING THESE MARKETS TO

1456
00:37:45,040 --> 00:37:46,500
GAMBLE, TRY AND REMEMBER THAT

1457
00:37:46,500 --> 00:37:48,090
YOU'RE STATISTICALLY LIKELY TO

1458
00:37:48,090 --> 00:37:49,090
LOSE MONEY.

1459
00:37:49,380 --> 00:37:50,779
AND WHILE I'M NOT AGAINST

1460
00:37:50,779 --> 00:37:52,320
GAMBLING PER SE, THERE'S

1461
00:37:52,560 --> 00:37:54,560
SOMETHING SO GRIM ABOUT THESE

1462
00:37:54,560 --> 00:37:56,220
SITES TURNING EVERY ASPECT OF

1463
00:37:56,220 --> 00:37:57,380
OUR LIVES INTO A BET.

1464
00:37:57,380 --> 00:37:59,420
BECAUSE SURE, MONEY CAN BE WON

1465
00:37:59,420 --> 00:38:01,060
ON THEM -- BUT IN THAT

1466
00:38:01,060 --> 00:38:02,340
HAPPENING, SOMETHING ALSO GETS

1467
00:38:02,340 --> 00:38:03,180
LOST.

1468
00:38:03,180 --> 00:38:04,359
SPECIFICALLY, A SOCIETY WHERE

1469
00:38:04,359 --> 00:38:05,839
THINGS AREN'T ONLY WEIGHED IN

1470
00:38:05,839 --> 00:38:06,779
FINANCIAL TERMS, AND WHERE

1471
00:38:06,779 --> 00:38:08,360
PEOPLE ENGAGE WITH NEWS FOR WHAT

1472
00:38:08,399 --> 00:38:10,359
IT MEANS TO HUMAN BEINGS, NOT

1473
00:38:10,359 --> 00:38:11,520
JUST BECAUSE THEY HAVE $50

1474
00:38:11,520 --> 00:38:12,580
RIDING ON IT.

1475
00:38:13,000 --> 00:38:14,520
AND WHEN SOMETHING UNEXPECTED

1476
00:38:14,520 --> 00:38:15,859
HAPPENS IN THE WORLD, IT'D BE

1477
00:38:16,140 --> 00:38:17,760
NICE NOT TO HAVE TO

1478
00:38:17,760 --> 00:38:19,176
AUTOMATICALLY QUESTION WHETHER

1479
00:38:19,176 --> 00:38:20,052
IT'S ONLY BECAUSE SOMEONE'S

1480
00:38:20,052 --> 00:38:22,215
TRYING TO MOVE A MARKET.

1481
00:38:22,290 --> 00:38:23,894
THAT'S WHY I'M GOING TO MAKE YOU

1482
00:38:23,968 --> 00:38:27,251
A PROMISE TONIGHT: I WILL NEVER

1483
00:38:27,251 --> 00:38:27,772
DO ANYTHING, BECAUSE SOMEONE

1484
00:38:27,772 --> 00:38:28,859
ONLINE PLACED A BET ON IT.

1485
00:38:28,899 --> 00:38:30,420
SO YOU CAN BE CONFIDENT THAT IF

1486
00:38:30,420 --> 00:38:32,340
I EVER SAY "BITCOIN, ETHEREUM,

1487
00:38:32,580 --> 00:38:34,080
BLOCKCHAIN, STAKING, AND WEB3,"

1488
00:38:34,279 --> 00:38:35,720
IT'S WON'T BE BECAUSE I'M TRYING

1489
00:38:35,720 --> 00:38:36,980
TO MOVE MARKETS, IT'LL BE

1490
00:38:36,980 --> 00:38:38,700
BECAUSE I'M HAVING A STROKE.

1491
00:38:39,639 --> 00:38:41,720
AND ONCE YOU HAVE THAT TRUST,

1492
00:38:41,720 --> 00:38:43,399
YOU CAN FEEL SECURE IN THE

1493
00:38:43,399 --> 00:38:45,000
KNOWLEDGE THAT IF A DILDO EVER

1494
00:38:45,100 --> 00:38:47,080
LANDS ON THIS DESK, IT'S NOT

1495
00:38:47,080 --> 00:38:48,420
BECAUSE SOMEONE HAD A SECRET

1496
00:38:48,420 --> 00:38:49,040
WAGER ON IT.

1497
00:38:49,040 --> 00:38:50,669
IT'S BECAUSE WE WEREN'T SURE HOW

1498
00:38:50,669 --> 00:38:52,340
TO GET OUT OF A 32-MINUTE

1499
00:38:52,340 --> 00:38:53,580
SEGMENT ON A QUASI-LEGAL

1500
00:38:53,580 --> 00:38:54,899
GAMBLING INDUSTRY, BUT WE KNEW

1501
00:38:54,899 --> 00:38:56,760
THAT A THROWN DILDO -- IN THE

1502
00:38:56,760 --> 00:38:58,337
RIGHT CIRCUMSTANCES, AND WITH

1503
00:38:58,337 --> 00:38:58,790
THE FULL CONSENT OF THE PERSON

1504
00:38:58,790 --> 00:39:00,122
HAVING IT THROWN AT THEM --

1505
00:39:00,159 --> 00:39:02,960
WOULD BE UNDENIABLY FUNNY.

1506
00:39:03,140 --> 00:39:04,620
AND IF MORE THAN ONE DILDOS

1507
00:39:04,819 --> 00:39:07,080
LANDS, IT'LL ONLY BE BECAUSE A

1508
00:39:07,080 --> 00:39:08,740
FUNDAMENTAL RULE OF COMEDY IS

1509
00:39:09,039 --> 00:39:11,059
"MORE DILDOS IS MORE FUNNY."

1510
00:39:11,060 --> 00:39:12,600
AND IF IT TURNS OUT THERE ARE

1511
00:39:12,600 --> 00:39:14,100
TOO MANY DILDOS FLYING THROUGH

1512
00:39:14,100 --> 00:39:16,470
THE AIR, I PROMISE, IT'LL ONLY

1513
00:39:16,470 --> 00:39:18,040
BE BECAUSE WE DIDN'T KNOW HOW

1514
00:39:18,040 --> 00:39:19,859
MANY TO BUY, AND NOW WE'RE SORT

1515
00:39:19,859 --> 00:39:21,600
OF SCREWED BECAUSE I DON'T THINK

1516
00:39:21,600 --> 00:39:22,940
YOU'RE ALLOWED TO RETURN THEM.

1517
00:39:23,360 --> 00:39:24,360
THAT IS OUR SHOW.

1518
00:39:24,540 --> 00:39:25,700
THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR WATCHING.

1519
00:39:26,220 --> 00:39:27,220
SEE YOU NEXT WEEK.

1520
00:39:27,220 --> 00:39:27,950
GOOD NIGHT!

1521
00:39:27,950 --> 00:39:34,950
THIS IS -- THIS IS JUST TOO MANY

1522
00:39:35,246 --> 00:39:35,765
DILDOS!

1523
00:39:35,765 --> 00:39:36,401
[CHEERS AND APPLAUSE]

1524
00:39:36,401 --> 00:39:43,401
♪ ♪