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(THEME MUSIC PLAYS)
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REPORTER: What do you hope
to accomplish today
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with the Prime Minister?
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DONALD TRUMP: It's great to have
the Prime Minister of Australia.
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A lot of friends over there.
And this is one of them right here.
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In about a year from now
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we'll have so much
critical minerals and rare earths
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that you won't know
what to do with them.
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ANGUS GRIGG: These once obscure
minerals are now highly coveted.
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Increasing the security
for the region and the world,
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to take our relationship
to that next level.
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So, thank you very much,
Mr President.
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Well, thank you very much, Anthony.
It's an honour to sign this.
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Well, thank you very much, Anthony.
With deep reserves,
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With deep reserves,
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Australia has become
With deep reserves,
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Australia has become
a global player.
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IAN SATCHWELL:
Well, Australia probably has
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the widest range
of critical minerals on the planet.
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DONALD TRUMP: We're really
working on anything having to do
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with military ships, vehicles,
guns, ammunition, everything.
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The US needs these minerals to power
its economy and its military.
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But there's just one problem.
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China controls the market.
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While the rest of the world slept,
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China built
While the rest of the world slept,
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China built
end-to-end supply chains.
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China built
Make no mistake,
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Make no mistake,
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this is China versus the world.
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You might think
this is China versus the world.
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You might think
we're all in with America...
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..but we've discovered
Australia is supplying China
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with a mineral critical
for its most advanced weaponry.
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This basin north of Perth
contains key minerals
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for hypersonic missiles
and nuclear technology.
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DAVID KILCULLEN: It's really
important for us to have
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an understanding
of where our minerals go.
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an understanding
At the same time
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At the same time
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we're spending billions
arming ourselves against China.
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JENNIFER PARKER: The chances
of conflict in this region
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JENNIFER PARKER: The chances
are increasingly likely.
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are increasingly likely.
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That means
Australia is potentially targeted.
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In fact, likely targeted.
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CHINESE COMMENTATOR: The Dongfeng-5C
can strike any target
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CHINESE COMMENTATOR: The Dongfeng-5C
around the world.
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around the world.
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DAVID KILCULLEN: The build-up
of Chinese nuclear weapons
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is a pace and scale
that we've never seen.
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is a pace and scale
And, if hostilities go nuclear,
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And, if hostilities go nuclear,
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Australian minerals
And, if hostilities go nuclear,
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Australian minerals
will have once again played a part.
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Australian minerals
JENNIFER PARKER: We need to look at
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JENNIFER PARKER: We need to look at
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how does
our economic and our trade policy
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support our security strategy.
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And we need to ask
a lot of hard questions.
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Would China target those bases
in the event of a conflict?
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If there is a war,
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definitely.
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In WA's remote north-west
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the Indian Ocean collides
with this ancient landscape.
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Once a Cold War outpost,
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the North West Cape is now more than
ever prized for its strategic value.
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We've come to RAAF Base Learmonth
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1,200km north of Perth.
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GREG PORCHE: This was a bare base.
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Normally bare bases
GREG PORCHE: This was a bare base.
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Normally bare bases
don't have people.
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They'll have a caretaker
and that's about it.
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It's quiet right now,
but that's changing.
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The Australian government
is spending $880 million
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The Australian government
to make this base battle-ready.
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to make this base battle-ready.
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What's going to happen is
they're going to upgrade the taxiway
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so it's used
as an alternate main runway.
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Showing us around
is Wing Commander Greg Porche.
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So, in effect,
you'll have two runways here.
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So, in effect,
In effect, yes.
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In effect, yes.
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We can actually launch aircraft,
refuel them.
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We can actually launch aircraft,
That extends the range,
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That extends the range,
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and therefore
we can operate further north
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than what we would normally do.
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And that's what they mean
by holding an adversary at length.
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What is it that's so strategic
about this location?
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Basically,
it's right in the north-west.
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So, if you look at the map and
you tilt it sideways or on an angle,
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what you'll end up doing
is looking out across Indonesia,
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up into the South China Sea, China,
that area,
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that's the location of it.
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Is there a sense of urgency
around upgrading this base?
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I believe so, yes.
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These bases haven't had
a lot of work done on them
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These bases haven't had
in the last 35 years.
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in the last 35 years.
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It's a matter
of bringing them up to speed,
in the last 35 years.
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It's a matter
of bringing them up to speed,
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making them contemporary in order
to operate the platforms we need.
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making them contemporary in order
And is it a case that once again,
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And is it a case that once again,
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just like in World War II,
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this is now the front line?
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Yeah,
it is very much the front line.
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Yeah,
We've operated in Afghanistan,
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We've operated in Afghanistan,
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we've operated in Iraq,
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multiple places around the world.
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This is about the homeland.
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As we discover,
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defending the homeland
requires plenty of fuel.
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And you'll see the blast walls
down there as well.
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And you'll see the blast walls
Yep.
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Yep.
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And then you can see the fuel farm
Yep.
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And then you can see the fuel farm
in the distance.
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Fuel is the bloodline
of the air base.
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If we don't have fuel on the base,
we don't operate.
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This base is just one part
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of the deepening alliance
This base is just one part
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of the deepening alliance
with the United States.
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of the deepening alliance
US defence documents
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US defence documents
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show the Americans want
their own massive fuel farm here.
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Its capacity would be
500,000 barrels of jet fuel.
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That's 40 times bigger
than the current stockpile.
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We see advantage
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in the US being anchored
We see advantage
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in the US being anchored
in the Indo-Pacific region
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as a balancing weight
against other forces in the region.
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as a balancing weight
against other forces in the region.
Historically, we've enjoyed
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Historically, we've enjoyed
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a 10-year warning time to conflict.
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We now assess that that warning time
has evaporated
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and that we need to be ready
sooner than that.
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To understand how...
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Learmonth is one of five bases being
upgraded across northern Australia.
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This redevelopment
of bases, ports and barracks,
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costing up to $18 billion,
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is designed to counter
the growing threat from China.
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So, Angus, this is our network
of northern bases.
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They stretch from Learmonth
across in Western Australia,
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They stretch from Learmonth
to Curtin up near Derby.
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to Curtin up near Derby.
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We've obviously got
Darwin and Tindal,
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which is one
of our main operating bases
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that accommodate the F-35
and also our MQ-4 Tritons.
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If they're under attack,
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then we need to be able
to manoeuvre our forces
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across this network
of northern bases
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so that we can survive.
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The Vice Chief of Defence,
Air Marshal Rob Chipman,
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wants Australians to know the risk of
a major conflict is real and growing.
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You can see
how close China really is.
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And I guess you're directly
up into the South China Sea,
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which is the sort of area
of potential conflict, right?
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It's certainly an area
that we think very deeply about.
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What Australia offers
is strategic geography,
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a place
that the US can base its forces
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and project firepower
into the region.
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If the US ever goes to war
with China,
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Australia will have little choice
but to support our long-time ally.
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Two months ago
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the world got a taste
of how that war might be fought.
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(MILITARY MUSIC AND SINGING)
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VICTOR GAU:
If you want to defend peace,
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you need to be able to have one
single, seamless killing machine.
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Is this the hypersonic?
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JENNIFER PARKER:
So, this is a hypersonic missile.
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We're seeing
a huge military build-up in China
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and the use
of those military capabilities
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and the use
to bully areas in the region.
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to bully areas in the region.
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See the range of nuclear missiles
on display.
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We are entering a period
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where conflict
is increasingly likely.
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where conflict
Potentially conflict over Taiwan.
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Potentially conflict over Taiwan.
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But there are other flashpoints
Potentially conflict over Taiwan.
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But there are other flashpoints
in our region.
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And what that means for Australia
But there are other flashpoints
in our region.
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And what that means for Australia
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is, for the first time
since World War II,
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Australia is potentially targeted,
in fact, likely targeted
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in the event of a conflict.
in fact, likely targeted
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in the event of a conflict.
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in the event of a conflict.
I think anyone
who's been watching the...
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I think anyone
who's been watching the...
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Jennifer Parker
is a former operations director
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for coalition forces
in the Middle East.
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for coalition forces
She tells us this is the first time
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She tells us this is the first time
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we've seen China's new arsenal
of hypersonic missiles.
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This is a road-mobile
hypersonic missile.
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If one was placed
in the South China Sea,
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it could probably
just reach the tip of Australia.
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But, being a road-mobile
hypersonic missile,
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it means it's hard to target,
hard to find where it is
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it means it's hard to target,
and hard to take it out.
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and hard to take it out.
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What are we looking at here?
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So, what we're looking at here
is actually really significant.
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It is the demonstration
of the nuclear triad.
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So, we've thought for a while
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that China had the ability
to launch nuclear weapons
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from land, subsurface
and from the air.
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But, actually,
what we saw in front of us
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is the first demonstration
of all of that together
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and really
the first confirmation from China
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and really
that they have that ability.
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that they have that ability.
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Whilst China doesn't have
the amount of nuclear warheads
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anywhere near
that the US has or Russia,
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the number of different
delivery systems is phenomenal.
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DAVID KILCULLEN:
All Western countries
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are a little bit behind the curve
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given the massive military build-up,
including nuclear build-up,
are a little bit behind the curve
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given the massive military build-up,
including nuclear build-up,
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that the Chinese
have been engaging in.
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that the Chinese
have been engaging in.
And that doesn't mean
we need to be aggressive,
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And that doesn't mean
we need to be aggressive,
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but it means we need to be realistic
about the nature of the threat.
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Happening at the same time
as this global military build-up
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Happening at the same time
is a shadow race for raw materials.
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is a shadow race for raw materials.
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is a shadow race for raw materials.
In this race China is miles ahead,
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In this race China is miles ahead,
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and it's not just because
In this race China is miles ahead,
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and it's not just because
Beijing has greater mineral reserves.
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As we've discovered, Australia
supplies China with one key commodity
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vital for building
hypersonic missiles, fighter jets
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and nuclear-powered submarines.
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IAN SATCHWELL:
From a strategic perspective,
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IAN SATCHWELL:
critical minerals are really vital.
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critical minerals are really vital.
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The demand for them is rising.
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But for so many
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China controls the market.
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While the rest of the world slept,
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China built
end-to-end supply chains.
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00:12:21,240 --> 00:12:23,480
The rest of the world
has woken up now.
246
00:12:28,240 --> 00:12:34,120
This vast expanse of mineral sands
north of Perth is rich in zirconium,
247
00:12:34,120 --> 00:12:37,720
an element
vital to China's military build-up.
248
00:12:39,880 --> 00:12:43,080
Australia has the world's
largest reserves,
249
00:12:43,080 --> 00:12:43,320
Australia has the world's
but China dominates processing.
250
00:12:43,320 --> 00:12:46,200
but China dominates processing.
251
00:12:50,480 --> 00:12:54,480
Well, we're in the middle
of one of the world's largest fields
252
00:12:54,480 --> 00:12:54,720
Well, we're in the middle
for heavy mineral sands.
253
00:12:54,720 --> 00:12:56,760
for heavy mineral sands.
254
00:12:58,600 --> 00:13:01,760
We've come to meet
Adjunct Professor Ian Satchwell,
255
00:13:01,760 --> 00:13:05,760
one of Australia's leading
authorities on critical minerals.
256
00:13:08,640 --> 00:13:10,520
What's the significance
of this area?
257
00:13:10,520 --> 00:13:10,800
Heavy mineral sands, generally,
have come out of volcanoes,
What's the significance
of this area?
258
00:13:10,800 --> 00:13:15,160
Heavy mineral sands, generally,
have come out of volcanoes,
259
00:13:15,160 --> 00:13:17,080
been worn down into sand,
260
00:13:17,080 --> 00:13:17,320
been worn down into sand,
stirred by the sea and the tides
over many, many millions of years
261
00:13:17,320 --> 00:13:21,240
stirred by the sea and the tides
over many, many millions of years
262
00:13:21,240 --> 00:13:21,480
stirred by the sea and the tides
and not degraded.
263
00:13:21,480 --> 00:13:22,720
and not degraded.
264
00:13:22,720 --> 00:13:25,760
So, they are very robust minerals.
265
00:13:25,760 --> 00:13:26,000
Zirconium has a wide, wide range
So, they are very robust minerals.
266
00:13:26,000 --> 00:13:28,920
Zirconium has a wide, wide range
of uses,
267
00:13:28,920 --> 00:13:31,440
everything
from whitening our bathroom tiles
268
00:13:31,440 --> 00:13:34,000
and our basins and toilets
269
00:13:34,000 --> 00:13:34,240
through to sheathing
and our basins and toilets
270
00:13:34,240 --> 00:13:37,880
through to sheathing
nuclear fuel rods.
271
00:13:38,840 --> 00:13:41,080
China needs zirconium,
272
00:13:41,080 --> 00:13:42,560
and lots of it.
273
00:13:44,000 --> 00:13:47,640
With a melting point
of more than 1,800 degrees,
274
00:13:47,640 --> 00:13:51,520
it's used in the protective coating
for hypersonic missiles
275
00:13:51,520 --> 00:13:56,320
that travel at more than five times
the speed of sound.
276
00:13:56,320 --> 00:14:01,440
It's also a vital ingredient
in the nuclear fuel cycle.
277
00:14:02,760 --> 00:14:05,120
Zircon exists
in some places in abundance,
278
00:14:05,120 --> 00:14:05,360
Zircon exists
particularly in Australia,
279
00:14:05,360 --> 00:14:06,920
particularly in Australia,
280
00:14:06,920 --> 00:14:09,320
but in other places like China
281
00:14:09,320 --> 00:14:11,240
they have very little or none of it.
282
00:14:14,240 --> 00:14:18,920
Beijing clearly understands
its strategic weakness.
283
00:14:18,920 --> 00:14:23,400
A study in May from China's National
University of Defense Technology,
284
00:14:23,400 --> 00:14:23,640
A study in May from China's National
a research arm of the PLA,
285
00:14:23,640 --> 00:14:25,520
a research arm of the PLA,
286
00:14:25,520 --> 00:14:29,080
spells out how vital zirconium is.
287
00:14:29,080 --> 00:14:29,320
It outlines zirconium's increasingly
spells out how vital zirconium is.
288
00:14:29,320 --> 00:14:34,320
It outlines zirconium's increasingly
important role in new weapon systems,
289
00:14:34,320 --> 00:14:38,520
including hypersonic technology,
aerospace vehicles
290
00:14:38,520 --> 00:14:38,760
including hypersonic technology,
and nuclear reactors.
291
00:14:38,760 --> 00:14:41,000
and nuclear reactors.
292
00:14:41,000 --> 00:14:45,280
The paper warns
that China faces severe challenges
293
00:14:45,280 --> 00:14:48,320
securing all the zirconium it needs.
294
00:14:51,320 --> 00:14:54,720
China did understand
a strategic value of these minerals.
295
00:14:54,720 --> 00:14:59,520
China was getting very strategic
about commodities back in the 1990s.
296
00:14:59,520 --> 00:14:59,800
Their companies have been encouraged
to go overseas and find resources.
China was getting very strategic
about commodities back in the 1990s.
297
00:14:59,800 --> 00:15:03,840
Their companies have been encouraged
to go overseas and find resources.
298
00:15:08,120 --> 00:15:11,640
China has put this strategy
into action.
299
00:15:16,040 --> 00:15:19,360
Just two hours north
of the Perth CBD
300
00:15:19,360 --> 00:15:24,400
is where a Chinese company with deep
links to Beijing's defence industry
301
00:15:24,400 --> 00:15:28,560
purchased a stake
in the ASX-listed Image Resources.
302
00:15:28,560 --> 00:15:34,400
Australia's Foreign Investment Review
Board waved through the deal in 2015.
303
00:15:36,000 --> 00:15:39,200
If that deal was put forward today,
would it be approved?
304
00:15:39,200 --> 00:15:44,440
It would certainly have much more
rigorous scrutiny from FIRB.
305
00:15:44,440 --> 00:15:44,720
Australia has recently tightened up
its FIRB oversight
It would certainly have much more
rigorous scrutiny from FIRB.
306
00:15:44,720 --> 00:15:48,680
Australia has recently tightened up
its FIRB oversight
307
00:15:48,680 --> 00:15:48,920
Australia has recently tightened up
its FIRB oversight
of investment,
308
00:15:48,920 --> 00:15:51,240
of investment,
309
00:15:51,240 --> 00:15:57,800
and a number of Chinese investments
have been refused or modified.
310
00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:04,360
The largest shareholder in
Image Resources is China's LB Group,
311
00:16:04,360 --> 00:16:09,400
which is also the major buyer of
its mineral sands via a subsidiary.
312
00:16:11,680 --> 00:16:13,880
It's just gone under the radar.
313
00:16:13,880 --> 00:16:18,400
Academic Vlado Vivoda
studies the shifting geopolitics
314
00:16:18,400 --> 00:16:20,360
around critical minerals.
315
00:16:21,960 --> 00:16:23,520
It would be very difficult to argue
316
00:16:23,520 --> 00:16:25,920
that there is no state intervention
317
00:16:25,920 --> 00:16:30,000
and some sort of a control
or leverage over these entities,
318
00:16:30,000 --> 00:16:34,760
even though
they're, on paper, fully private.
319
00:16:40,600 --> 00:16:42,560
The level of state intervention
320
00:16:42,560 --> 00:16:42,800
is revealed in LB Group's
The level of state intervention
321
00:16:42,800 --> 00:16:47,080
is revealed in LB Group's
Chinese company filings.
322
00:16:50,760 --> 00:16:54,280
Looking through
the LB Group annual report,
323
00:16:54,280 --> 00:16:58,920
there's 11 pages detailing all
the subsidies and assistance it gets.
324
00:16:58,920 --> 00:17:01,200
Now, I spent six years
as a correspondent in China,
325
00:17:01,200 --> 00:17:01,440
Now, I spent six years
and I've never seen this before,
326
00:17:01,440 --> 00:17:03,040
and I've never seen this before,
327
00:17:03,040 --> 00:17:06,120
and it really shows
how closely connected
328
00:17:06,120 --> 00:17:08,800
this company
is to the Chinese government.
329
00:17:11,640 --> 00:17:13,360
Its annual report shows
330
00:17:13,360 --> 00:17:13,600
LB Group enjoys a tax rate
Its annual report shows
331
00:17:13,600 --> 00:17:18,160
LB Group enjoys a tax rate
of just 15% in China,
332
00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:23,240
a generous discount due to its status
as a strategic enterprise.
333
00:17:23,240 --> 00:17:27,840
It received grants for its production
of nuclear-grade zirconium
334
00:17:27,840 --> 00:17:32,120
and special funds
for its strategic innovation.
335
00:17:32,120 --> 00:17:38,040
Last year it reported $85 million
in Chinese government assistance.
336
00:17:40,880 --> 00:17:42,800
China puts massive amounts of money
337
00:17:42,800 --> 00:17:45,520
into research and development
in the critical minerals,
338
00:17:45,520 --> 00:17:45,760
into research and development
particularly if there is a need
339
00:17:45,760 --> 00:17:48,920
particularly if there is a need
340
00:17:48,920 --> 00:17:52,400
for defence
and military applications
341
00:17:52,400 --> 00:17:56,320
where it could give China a...
you know, a level-up
342
00:17:56,320 --> 00:18:00,520
in terms of its strategic
competition with the United States.
343
00:18:03,280 --> 00:18:05,320
In China it's standard practice
344
00:18:05,320 --> 00:18:09,560
for civilian industry
to be harnessed for military use.
345
00:18:14,200 --> 00:18:17,360
DAVID KILCULLEN: China has
the military-civil fusion doctrine,
346
00:18:17,360 --> 00:18:17,640
which has been around
for about 10 years,
DAVID KILCULLEN: China has
the military-civil fusion doctrine,
347
00:18:17,640 --> 00:18:21,120
which has been around
for about 10 years,
348
00:18:21,120 --> 00:18:21,360
which has been around
which puts commercial companies
349
00:18:21,360 --> 00:18:24,360
which puts commercial companies
350
00:18:24,360 --> 00:18:24,560
which puts commercial companies
and commercial tech development
351
00:18:24,560 --> 00:18:27,480
and commercial tech development
352
00:18:27,480 --> 00:18:30,000
under the control of the military.
353
00:18:32,480 --> 00:18:35,960
David Kilcullen
is a military strategist
354
00:18:35,960 --> 00:18:39,400
and former adviser
to the US Secretary of State.
355
00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:45,640
Do you think you can separate
China's civilian nuclear program
356
00:18:45,640 --> 00:18:48,920
and its military nuclear program?
357
00:18:48,920 --> 00:18:52,240
I would say
that basically everything now,
358
00:18:52,240 --> 00:18:54,760
not only in nuclear technology
but writ large,
359
00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:56,640
is dual use.
360
00:18:56,640 --> 00:18:59,440
And that's particularly true
of nuclear capability.
361
00:18:59,440 --> 00:19:03,160
Big Chinese companies have
not only a Communist Party branch,
362
00:19:03,160 --> 00:19:06,640
but in many cases
a Chinese people's militia branch.
363
00:19:06,640 --> 00:19:12,160
They are under very strict control
by the Chinese Communist Party.
364
00:19:12,160 --> 00:19:15,040
And, of course,
unlike a commercial firm
365
00:19:15,040 --> 00:19:15,280
And, of course,
in the United States or Australia,
366
00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:17,520
in the United States or Australia,
367
00:19:17,520 --> 00:19:19,160
the difference between
a Chinese commercial firm
368
00:19:19,160 --> 00:19:19,400
the difference between
and a government-owned enterprise
369
00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:20,520
and a government-owned enterprise
370
00:19:20,520 --> 00:19:22,520
is basically one phone call.
371
00:19:27,120 --> 00:19:30,760
Image Resources
is a smaller, more nimble company
372
00:19:30,760 --> 00:19:33,840
than perhaps some of our competitors
at this time.
373
00:19:33,840 --> 00:19:36,120
Image Resources doesn't hide
374
00:19:36,120 --> 00:19:40,200
the potential military applications
for its minerals.
375
00:19:41,520 --> 00:19:43,360
Its latest annual report
376
00:19:43,360 --> 00:19:46,920
states zirconium
can be used in nuclear energy,
377
00:19:46,920 --> 00:19:52,000
jet engines, rockets
and hypersonic vehicles.
378
00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:57,320
It's the newer, higher-end uses
of these materials
379
00:19:57,320 --> 00:19:59,840
that are making
the demand grow even higher.
380
00:20:00,680 --> 00:20:02,520
In a 2017 interview
381
00:20:02,520 --> 00:20:05,120
Image Resources CEO Patrick Mutz
382
00:20:05,120 --> 00:20:09,680
talked up zirconium's use
in China's nuclear industry.
383
00:20:09,680 --> 00:20:11,000
He said a related company
384
00:20:11,000 --> 00:20:15,720
was one of the few in China licensed
to produce nuclear-grade zirconium
385
00:20:15,720 --> 00:20:15,960
was one of the few in China licensed
for nuclear reactors.
386
00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:18,200
for nuclear reactors.
387
00:20:19,080 --> 00:20:22,000
Mr Mutz declined
an on-camera interview.
388
00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:22,240
Mr Mutz declined
In a statement
389
00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:23,320
In a statement
390
00:20:23,320 --> 00:20:26,120
he did not address
the possible military uses
391
00:20:26,120 --> 00:20:28,160
for the company's mineral sands,
392
00:20:28,160 --> 00:20:30,800
saying it sold small quantities
393
00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:35,840
to customers who further processed it
"for use in everyday products
394
00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:39,320
"such as paint, pigments
and floor tiles."
395
00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:42,440
He said the company
meets its government requirements
396
00:20:42,440 --> 00:20:46,720
and its mineral sands
are covered by export permits.
397
00:20:48,680 --> 00:20:50,280
I think it's really important
398
00:20:50,280 --> 00:20:55,400
for us to have an understanding
of where our minerals go.
399
00:20:55,400 --> 00:20:58,680
And there are conflict minerals
agreements
400
00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:00,720
about a number
of different commodities,
401
00:21:00,720 --> 00:21:03,600
and I think it's appropriate
to be applying those
402
00:21:03,600 --> 00:21:08,200
to things that might be used
for nuclear or missile production.
403
00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:10,440
It would be something
that any Australian government
404
00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:12,720
would want to be tracking
pretty closely.
405
00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:12,960
would want to be tracking
(MISSILE WHOOSHES)
406
00:21:12,960 --> 00:21:16,080
(MISSILE WHOOSHES)
407
00:21:16,080 --> 00:21:16,920
(EXPLOSION)
408
00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:22,040
Australian zirconium
isn't just going to China.
409
00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:23,000
(EXPLOSION)
410
00:21:23,000 --> 00:21:28,600
Our research suggests it could be
helping Vladimir Putin's war machine.
411
00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:28,840
Our research suggests it could be
(MISSILES WHOOSH)
412
00:21:28,840 --> 00:21:32,680
(MISSILES WHOOSH)
413
00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:38,120
(EXPLOSION)
414
00:21:39,640 --> 00:21:43,480
(ALARMS BLARE)
415
00:21:48,360 --> 00:21:49,360
(EXPLOSION)
416
00:21:49,360 --> 00:21:51,520
The year Russia invaded Ukraine,
417
00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:51,760
The year Russia invaded Ukraine,
from China surged more than 300%.
418
00:21:51,760 --> 00:21:57,080
its imports of zirconium
from China surged more than 300%.
419
00:21:57,080 --> 00:21:57,360
its imports of zirconium
from China surged more than 300%.
LB Group, the largest shareholder
in Australia's Image Resources,
420
00:21:57,360 --> 00:22:01,920
LB Group, the largest shareholder
in Australia's Image Resources,
421
00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:02,160
LB Group, the largest shareholder
is a key player in this trade.
422
00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:05,000
is a key player in this trade.
423
00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:07,040
In one 12-month period
424
00:22:07,040 --> 00:22:12,000
it sold more than $5 million worth
of zirconium to Russia.
425
00:22:14,360 --> 00:22:18,240
We need to look at how does
our economic and our trade policy
426
00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:18,480
We need to look at how does
support our security strategy?
427
00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:20,280
support our security strategy?
428
00:22:20,280 --> 00:22:21,280
And in that
429
00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:21,520
And in that
we need to ask
a lot of hard questions
430
00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:22,720
we need to ask
a lot of hard questions
431
00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:25,720
about what we are trading,
who we're trading it with,
432
00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:27,840
what does that mean
for their capability
433
00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:29,600
and what does that mean
for vulnerabilities for us?
434
00:22:31,560 --> 00:22:35,840
Trade data shows the biggest buyer
of Chinese zirconium in Russia
435
00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:38,680
is manufacturing giant CMP.
436
00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:44,560
It's an arm of Russia's state-owned
nuclear corporation Rosatom.
437
00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:48,880
CMP produces the cladding
for nuclear fuel rods
438
00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:51,880
and the alloys
in hypersonic missiles -
439
00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:55,880
the weapons changing
how modern wars are fought.
440
00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:01,200
DAVID KILCULLEN:
Hypersonic, by definition,
441
00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:03,440
is faster than Mach 5, right?
442
00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:06,360
So, faster
than five times the speed of sound.
443
00:23:07,360 --> 00:23:10,760
But it's manoeuvring
hypersonic missiles
444
00:23:10,760 --> 00:23:11,000
But it's manoeuvring
that can evade defensive systems
445
00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:13,480
that can evade defensive systems
446
00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:15,600
that are the real
sort of gold standard now,
447
00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:15,880
that are the real
sort of gold standard now,
what are sometimes called
carrier killer missiles
448
00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:18,800
what are sometimes called
carrier killer missiles
449
00:23:18,800 --> 00:23:19,040
what are sometimes called
that are able to, you know,
450
00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:20,320
that are able to, you know,
451
00:23:20,320 --> 00:23:22,720
penetrate the defences of a fleet,
452
00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:24,520
get in and sink a major ship.
453
00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:27,120
(MISSILE WHOOSHES)
454
00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:37,800
JENNIFER PARKER: In terms
of missiles and delivery vehicles,
455
00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:40,360
the US is only really now
fielding hypersonic weapons
456
00:23:40,360 --> 00:23:44,520
for their navy and their army
right now and their air force soon,
457
00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:46,720
so, they are at least
five years behind.
458
00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:48,200
(EXPLOSION)
459
00:23:50,560 --> 00:23:56,360
(SIREN WAILS)
460
00:23:59,160 --> 00:24:00,680
The war in Ukraine
461
00:24:00,680 --> 00:24:06,000
is the first time these hypersonic
weapons have been used in combat.
462
00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:13,120
Last year
463
00:24:13,120 --> 00:24:17,400
Russia used its hypersonic missile,
dubbed 'The Zircon',
464
00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:17,640
Russia used its hypersonic missile,
against civilian targets.
465
00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:19,960
against civilian targets.
466
00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:27,560
Defence Minister Richard Marles
467
00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:31,360
understands the military uses
of zirconium.
468
00:24:31,360 --> 00:24:36,360
He doesn't think tighter controls
on Russia and China are the answer.
469
00:24:36,360 --> 00:24:39,200
Well, there are challenges
in this space.
470
00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:39,440
Well, there are challenges
I very much accept that.
471
00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:41,800
I very much accept that.
472
00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:42,040
There are other sources of zirconium
from around the world
I very much accept that.
473
00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:44,680
There are other sources of zirconium
from around the world
474
00:24:44,680 --> 00:24:47,280
such that Australia withdrawing
from the zirconium market
475
00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:47,520
such that Australia withdrawing
would not mean
476
00:24:47,520 --> 00:24:48,920
would not mean
477
00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:49,160
would not mean
that the military use of zirconium
would also stop.
478
00:24:49,160 --> 00:24:52,960
that the military use of zirconium
would also stop.
479
00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:53,200
that the military use of zirconium
We've discovered that zirconium
480
00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:55,520
We've discovered that zirconium
481
00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:58,280
is being re-exported from China
to Russia
482
00:24:58,280 --> 00:24:58,520
is being re-exported from China
and is most likely being used
483
00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:00,000
and is most likely being used
484
00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:00,240
as part of Vladimir Putin's
and is most likely being used
485
00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:03,760
as part of Vladimir Putin's
war effort against Ukraine.
486
00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:04,000
as part of Vladimir Putin's
Does that concern you?
487
00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:05,120
Does that concern you?
488
00:25:05,120 --> 00:25:08,800
Well, I mean, I come back
to the point that I've made earlier,
489
00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:10,240
I don't for a moment think
490
00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:12,960
that an Australian withdrawal
from this market
491
00:25:12,960 --> 00:25:13,200
that an Australian withdrawal
would stop any country
492
00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:14,680
would stop any country
493
00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:14,920
from developing
would stop any country
494
00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:16,720
from developing
their military capability.
495
00:25:16,720 --> 00:25:19,920
Doesn't it show, though, that
Australia's sort of economic policy
496
00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:23,320
and its security policy
in this instance
497
00:25:23,320 --> 00:25:25,080
are working at cross purposes?
498
00:25:25,080 --> 00:25:28,840
No, but it does show that
there's a complexity here, for sure.
499
00:25:28,840 --> 00:25:32,640
We do engage with China
in terms of trade and commerce.
500
00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:36,240
There are thousands upon thousands
of jobs in our economy
501
00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:37,680
which are based upon that.
502
00:25:37,680 --> 00:25:39,920
And that
has really been very important
503
00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:42,440
in terms of Australia's
economic growth for decades.
504
00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:46,320
So, you know, you can't
divorce yourself from that reality.
505
00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:49,040
Ultimately, at the heart
of the question that you're asking
506
00:25:49,040 --> 00:25:49,280
Ultimately, at the heart
is the fact that, you know,
507
00:25:49,280 --> 00:25:50,520
is the fact that, you know,
508
00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:50,760
China is our largest trading partner
is the fact that, you know,
509
00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:55,720
China is our largest trading partner
on the one hand
510
00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:59,680
and it is our biggest source of
security and anxiety on the other.
511
00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:02,680
And that's just...
that is the way the world is.
512
00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:13,920
Beijing's Chang'An Avenue -
the Avenue of Eternal Peace -
513
00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:17,880
divides Tiananmen Square
and the Forbidden City.
514
00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:18,120
divides Tiananmen Square
(MILITARY MUSIC AND SINGING)
515
00:26:18,120 --> 00:26:20,600
(MILITARY MUSIC AND SINGING)
516
00:26:24,520 --> 00:26:25,920
CHINESE COMMENTATOR:
Now coming to us
517
00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:29,240
is the second
nuclear missiles formation.
518
00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:30,560
The Dongfeng-5C...
519
00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:32,600
It's where China's Communist Party
520
00:26:32,600 --> 00:26:37,400
recently unveiled its growing arsenal
of nuclear weapons.
521
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:39,840
..can strike any target
around the world
522
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:40,080
..can strike any target
with its extensive shooting range.
523
00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:42,680
with its extensive shooting range.
524
00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:53,320
For years
Australia supplied uranium to China.
525
00:26:53,320 --> 00:26:56,720
After record exports in 2017,
526
00:26:56,720 --> 00:27:01,880
trade data shows shipments
suddenly ceased a year later.
527
00:27:03,360 --> 00:27:07,800
It was around this time
China stopped reporting key details
528
00:27:07,800 --> 00:27:11,400
about its stockpile
of nuclear material.
529
00:27:14,920 --> 00:27:18,480
But it's not just uranium
that China needs.
530
00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:27,200
Any country seeking to expand its
nuclear arsenal also needs zirconium,
531
00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:32,320
which is used in reactors
to clad nuclear fuel rods.
532
00:27:39,320 --> 00:27:41,040
JENNIFER PARKER:
We've seen a doubling
533
00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:43,320
of China's nuclear warheads,
534
00:27:43,320 --> 00:27:43,560
so, from about 300, or just under,
five years ago to about 600 now.
of China's nuclear warheads,
535
00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:47,960
so, from about 300, or just under,
five years ago to about 600 now.
536
00:27:47,960 --> 00:27:50,840
The estimate is it's going
to be about 1,000 by 2030.
537
00:27:50,840 --> 00:27:51,080
The estimate is it's going
to be about 1,000 by 2030.
Their breadth of capabilities
538
00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:52,240
Their breadth of capabilities
539
00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:53,560
to employ those nuclear weapons
540
00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:56,120
is actually much broader
than the US.
541
00:27:56,120 --> 00:27:56,400
The build-up of Chinese nuclear
weapons over the last five years
is actually much broader
than the US.
542
00:27:56,400 --> 00:28:00,800
The build-up of Chinese nuclear
weapons over the last five years
543
00:28:00,800 --> 00:28:01,040
The build-up of Chinese nuclear
is a pace and scale
544
00:28:01,040 --> 00:28:02,800
is a pace and scale
545
00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:03,000
is a pace and scale
that we've never seen.
546
00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:04,760
that we've never seen.
547
00:28:04,760 --> 00:28:06,960
Just having those nuclear weapons
548
00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:12,000
creates a significant
effective deterrent for China
549
00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:14,520
as it's building up
its conventional forces.
550
00:28:22,680 --> 00:28:25,840
China doesn't like to talk about
its nuclear weapons program.
551
00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:32,160
What the world DOES know
is partly thanks to this man.
552
00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:36,880
DECKER EVELETH:
We had seen some indications
553
00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:39,760
that they were planning
for some sort of major expansion,
554
00:28:39,760 --> 00:28:41,360
and we had heard
rumours and some talk
555
00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:41,600
and we had heard
about the scale of that expansion.
556
00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:43,840
about the scale of that expansion.
557
00:28:46,840 --> 00:28:48,200
In 2021
558
00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:53,240
Decker Eveleth began searching
for China's rumoured nuclear sites.
559
00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:59,120
You're talking about thousands
of square kilometres of terrain
560
00:28:59,120 --> 00:28:59,360
You're talking about thousands
to look through.
561
00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:00,760
to look through.
562
00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:10,120
After more than 100 hours
of scouring satellite imagery
563
00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:12,960
he uncovered
a field of nuclear silos -
564
00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:17,600
the infrastructure for launching
intercontinental ballistic missiles,
565
00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:17,840
the infrastructure for launching
or ICBMs.
566
00:29:17,840 --> 00:29:19,360
or ICBMs.
567
00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:26,600
Other US researchers
later found two more silo fields.
568
00:29:28,880 --> 00:29:30,800
Combined, we're talking about
569
00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:35,360
320 solid fuel
nuclear missile sites
570
00:29:35,360 --> 00:29:35,640
320 solid fuel
nuclear missile sites
spread across
three different missile fields,
571
00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:38,840
spread across
three different missile fields,
572
00:29:38,840 --> 00:29:41,080
and that alone represents
573
00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:43,080
about a five-fold increase
574
00:29:43,080 --> 00:29:49,040
in the number of nuclear ICBMs
China was fielding at the time.
575
00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:55,400
China believes that ambiguity
576
00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:59,520
is a deterrence mechanism
that can work very effectively
577
00:29:59,520 --> 00:30:02,960
by basically
obfuscating the exact number
578
00:30:02,960 --> 00:30:05,520
of launchers, missiles, platforms
that they have.
579
00:30:06,720 --> 00:30:10,320
Professor Wang Yiwei
is a former diplomat,
580
00:30:10,320 --> 00:30:12,560
now with
the School of International Studies
581
00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:15,560
at the People's University
in Beijing.
582
00:30:15,560 --> 00:30:18,520
He says
China's nuclear weapons build-up
583
00:30:18,520 --> 00:30:21,680
is a response to US aggression.
584
00:30:21,680 --> 00:30:24,680
Why does China not talk about
its nuclear program?
585
00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:29,720
Doesn't that add to the risk
of miscalculation or destabilisation?
586
00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:52,080
Decker Eveleth's findings
587
00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:57,480
clearly show the world is now dealing
with three major nuclear powers.
588
00:30:58,480 --> 00:31:02,880
Now we are in a world in which
we have three major nuclear states.
589
00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:06,720
There are a lot
of dangerous, unanswered questions
590
00:31:06,720 --> 00:31:06,960
There are a lot
about how this is all going to work.
591
00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:09,640
about how this is all going to work.
592
00:31:09,640 --> 00:31:09,880
Deterring in a multi-actor
about how this is all going to work.
593
00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:14,280
Deterring in a multi-actor
environment is completely different,
594
00:31:14,280 --> 00:31:18,080
much more complicated,
much more dynamic and nonlinear
595
00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:22,280
than just a straight-up
mutual-assured destruction.
596
00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:24,880
It's rapidly expanding
its nuclear arsenal.
597
00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:27,400
China is also working
to further its effort
598
00:31:27,400 --> 00:31:31,040
to undermine American influence
and alliances around the world.
599
00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:31,280
to undermine American influence
And we cannot let them succeed.
600
00:31:31,280 --> 00:31:33,520
And we cannot let them succeed.
601
00:31:36,120 --> 00:31:40,720
Decker Eveleth, who works for CNA -
the US Navy's research body -
602
00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:46,280
says America is moving to counter
China's nuclear expansion.
603
00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:55,120
The United States is investing in a
sea-launched nuclear cruise missile
604
00:31:55,120 --> 00:31:57,640
to put aboard
some of our nuclear submarines.
605
00:31:57,640 --> 00:32:01,120
Could they be deployed
on the Virginia-class submarines
606
00:32:01,120 --> 00:32:04,280
that we will see
rotating through Australia?
607
00:32:06,040 --> 00:32:10,320
Sorry, I am hesitating for
some information-quarantine reasons.
608
00:32:11,400 --> 00:32:13,760
I know the answer, I'm just...
I'm just making sure.
609
00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:17,080
Yeah. OK.
610
00:32:17,080 --> 00:32:18,720
I'll ask you that again.
611
00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:20,960
The nuclear cruise missiles,
612
00:32:20,960 --> 00:32:21,200
could they be deployed
The nuclear cruise missiles,
613
00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:24,480
could they be deployed
on the Virginia-class submarines
614
00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:27,000
that we will see
rotating through Australia?
615
00:32:27,000 --> 00:32:27,240
that we will see
Yes, absolutely.
616
00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:28,480
Yes, absolutely.
617
00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:30,680
If US submarines visit Australia,
618
00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:32,920
they may or may not
be carrying nuclear weapons.
619
00:32:36,920 --> 00:32:38,440
Defence Minister Richard Marles
620
00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:42,480
says Australia respects
the long-standing US position
621
00:32:42,480 --> 00:32:42,720
says Australia respects
of neither confirming nor denying
622
00:32:42,720 --> 00:32:44,960
of neither confirming nor denying
623
00:32:44,960 --> 00:32:47,080
the presence of nuclear weapons
624
00:32:47,080 --> 00:32:49,400
on its ships or aircraft.
625
00:32:57,240 --> 00:33:01,440
Australia's alliance with the US
is meant to protect us,
626
00:33:01,440 --> 00:33:03,680
but if a regional conflict
goes nuclear,
627
00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:06,680
then Australia could become a target.
628
00:33:08,920 --> 00:33:12,920
If it escalates
to a nuclear exchange,
629
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:15,760
there are all kinds of sites
in Australia
630
00:33:15,760 --> 00:33:16,040
there are all kinds of sites
in Australia
that would be on
an adversary's nuclear target list.
631
00:33:16,040 --> 00:33:19,600
that would be on
an adversary's nuclear target list.
632
00:33:19,600 --> 00:33:23,080
Tindal and Darwin would potentially
be on that target list.
633
00:33:23,080 --> 00:33:23,320
Tindal and Darwin would potentially
So would Pine Gap.
634
00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:24,560
So would Pine Gap.
635
00:33:24,560 --> 00:33:28,640
Nuclear-armed submarines in port
in Western Australia -
636
00:33:28,640 --> 00:33:31,200
for sure that would be
a potential target as well.
637
00:33:32,320 --> 00:33:36,160
Would China target those bases
in the event of a conflict?
638
00:33:57,760 --> 00:33:59,040
Ready for take-off.
639
00:33:59,040 --> 00:34:02,560
(INDISTINCT RADIO CHATTER)
640
00:34:04,840 --> 00:34:06,440
Copy that.
We'll be descending to one-six.
641
00:34:06,440 --> 00:34:08,480
We're gonna enter
from the east at one-six.
642
00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:16,120
(INDISTINCT RADIO CHATTER)
643
00:34:17,840 --> 00:34:20,960
As the risk of nuclear conflict
grows,
644
00:34:20,960 --> 00:34:24,720
the global arms control regime
is breaking down.
645
00:34:24,720 --> 00:34:24,960
the global arms control regime
6.1.
646
00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:25,880
6.1.
647
00:34:33,720 --> 00:34:36,600
JENNIFER PARKER: There are no
real effective nuclear arms control
648
00:34:36,600 --> 00:34:36,880
agreements, discussions
between China and the US,
JENNIFER PARKER: There are no
real effective nuclear arms control
649
00:34:36,880 --> 00:34:39,240
agreements, discussions
between China and the US,
650
00:34:39,240 --> 00:34:39,480
agreements, discussions
and part of that is because
651
00:34:39,480 --> 00:34:40,480
and part of that is because
652
00:34:40,480 --> 00:34:40,720
China won't really come to the table
and part of that is because
653
00:34:40,720 --> 00:34:42,960
China won't really come to the table
on talks
654
00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:46,240
until they see themselves on par in
terms of number of nuclear warheads
655
00:34:46,240 --> 00:34:46,480
until they see themselves on par in
with the US.
656
00:34:46,480 --> 00:34:47,760
with the US.
657
00:34:47,760 --> 00:34:49,240
That is deeply concerning.
658
00:34:54,080 --> 00:34:55,560
TILMAN RUFF: On several occasions
659
00:34:55,560 --> 00:35:00,480
the world has come perilously close
to nuclear war.
660
00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:03,200
The US alone has threatened
to use nuclear weapons
661
00:35:03,200 --> 00:35:03,440
The US alone has threatened
on at least 25 occasions...
662
00:35:03,440 --> 00:35:05,680
on at least 25 occasions...
663
00:35:05,680 --> 00:35:08,960
Melbourne physician Tilman Ruff
and his colleagues
664
00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:12,040
won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2017
665
00:35:12,040 --> 00:35:16,920
for spearheading a global campaign
to ban nuclear weapons.
666
00:35:16,920 --> 00:35:17,160
for spearheading a global campaign
No nuclear-armed state is disarming.
667
00:35:17,160 --> 00:35:19,080
No nuclear-armed state is disarming.
668
00:35:19,080 --> 00:35:19,320
Instead, all nine
No nuclear-armed state is disarming.
669
00:35:19,320 --> 00:35:21,920
Instead, all nine
are investing massively
670
00:35:21,920 --> 00:35:24,440
in modernising
their nuclear arsenals...
671
00:35:24,440 --> 00:35:26,680
Their campaign paved the way
672
00:35:26,680 --> 00:35:30,200
for the Treaty on the Prohibition
of Nuclear Weapons,
673
00:35:30,200 --> 00:35:30,440
for the Treaty on the Prohibition
known as the Ban Treaty.
674
00:35:30,440 --> 00:35:32,800
known as the Ban Treaty.
675
00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:36,240
It's been signed by 95 countries.
676
00:35:36,240 --> 00:35:38,080
..130 million deaths.
677
00:35:39,040 --> 00:35:45,080
In 2018 Anthony Albanese and Richard
Marles publicly endorsed that treaty
678
00:35:45,080 --> 00:35:45,320
In 2018 Anthony Albanese and Richard
at the ALP's National Conference.
679
00:35:45,320 --> 00:35:48,600
at the ALP's National Conference.
680
00:35:48,600 --> 00:35:51,240
This is a Nobel Peace Prize...
681
00:35:51,240 --> 00:35:53,800
(CHEERING, APPLAUSE)
682
00:35:53,800 --> 00:35:56,560
..awarded to an organisation
683
00:35:56,560 --> 00:35:56,800
made up of activists concerned
..awarded to an organisation
684
00:35:56,800 --> 00:36:01,320
made up of activists concerned
about our place in the world.
685
00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:01,560
made up of activists concerned
(CHEERING, APPLAUSE)
686
00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:04,520
(CHEERING, APPLAUSE)
687
00:36:04,520 --> 00:36:07,280
TILMAN RUFF:
So, Labor took an important step
688
00:36:07,280 --> 00:36:10,880
at its National Conference in 2018
in Adelaide.
689
00:36:10,880 --> 00:36:14,240
Labor and government
will sign and ratify
690
00:36:14,240 --> 00:36:18,600
the UN Treaty on the Prohibition
of Nuclear Weapons.
691
00:36:18,600 --> 00:36:18,840
the UN Treaty on the Prohibition
(CHEERING, APPLAUSE)
692
00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:22,920
(CHEERING, APPLAUSE)
693
00:36:22,920 --> 00:36:23,160
This resolution
(CHEERING, APPLAUSE)
694
00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:26,560
This resolution
is Labor at our best.
695
00:36:27,800 --> 00:36:31,360
TILMAN RUFF: Championed by the
current prime minister, Mr Albanese,
696
00:36:31,360 --> 00:36:31,640
Labor enshrined
in its national policy platform
TILMAN RUFF: Championed by the
current prime minister, Mr Albanese,
697
00:36:31,640 --> 00:36:34,880
Labor enshrined
in its national policy platform
698
00:36:34,880 --> 00:36:38,520
a commitment
to in government sign and ratify
699
00:36:38,520 --> 00:36:38,800
a commitment
to in government sign and ratify
the Treaty on the Prohibition
of Nuclear Weapons.
700
00:36:38,800 --> 00:36:41,200
the Treaty on the Prohibition
of Nuclear Weapons.
701
00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:46,360
Richard Marles stood up
to second that motion.
702
00:36:46,360 --> 00:36:49,840
We have today
before this conference
703
00:36:49,840 --> 00:36:52,760
a resolution
that we can all agree upon.
704
00:36:52,760 --> 00:36:57,520
We can all agree
on the aim of the Ban Treaty
705
00:36:57,520 --> 00:37:01,440
to remove nuclear weapons
from the world.
706
00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:01,680
to remove nuclear weapons
Six months into its second term
707
00:37:01,680 --> 00:37:04,080
Six months into its second term
708
00:37:04,080 --> 00:37:04,320
the Albanese government
Six months into its second term
709
00:37:04,320 --> 00:37:08,600
the Albanese government
still hasn't signed the Ban Treaty.
710
00:37:08,600 --> 00:37:10,000
In 2018
711
00:37:10,000 --> 00:37:12,880
the ALP National Conference agreed
712
00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:13,120
to sign or adopt
the ALP National Conference agreed
713
00:37:13,120 --> 00:37:16,600
to sign or adopt
the nuclear weapons Ban Treaty.
714
00:37:16,600 --> 00:37:16,840
to sign or adopt
Why has that not happened?
715
00:37:16,840 --> 00:37:18,360
Why has that not happened?
716
00:37:19,400 --> 00:37:23,440
Well, we have been consistent
with our position
717
00:37:23,440 --> 00:37:23,680
Well, we have been consistent
in relation to this.
718
00:37:23,680 --> 00:37:25,520
in relation to this.
719
00:37:25,520 --> 00:37:25,760
in relation to this.
The... I mean,
that is a decision of government,
720
00:37:25,760 --> 00:37:29,000
The... I mean,
that is a decision of government,
721
00:37:29,000 --> 00:37:32,880
and government has been consistent
in terms of its position
722
00:37:32,880 --> 00:37:33,120
and government has been consistent
in respect of that treaty.
723
00:37:33,120 --> 00:37:35,480
in respect of that treaty.
724
00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:37,720
You said you were going to sign
the treaty and you haven't done it.
725
00:37:37,720 --> 00:37:37,960
You said you were going to sign
(STAMMERS)
726
00:37:37,960 --> 00:37:38,920
(STAMMERS)
727
00:37:38,920 --> 00:37:39,160
What's really clear
(STAMMERS)
728
00:37:39,160 --> 00:37:42,720
What's really clear
is that the conference understands
729
00:37:42,720 --> 00:37:45,680
that this is a decision
of government,
730
00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:51,200
and that is...and that is
a decision of Labor in government,
731
00:37:51,200 --> 00:37:54,160
and the decision
that Labor has made in government
732
00:37:54,160 --> 00:37:57,160
has been to follow
the Non-Proliferation Treaty,
733
00:37:57,160 --> 00:38:02,640
and the NPT is at the core
of Labor and government's policy.
734
00:38:03,600 --> 00:38:05,520
Today we have an opportunity...
735
00:38:05,520 --> 00:38:10,760
The NPT, or Non-Proliferation Treaty,
is something entirely different.
736
00:38:10,760 --> 00:38:14,000
It seeks to limit
the number of nuclear-armed states,
737
00:38:14,000 --> 00:38:14,240
It seeks to limit
not ban nuclear weapons.
738
00:38:14,240 --> 00:38:16,840
not ban nuclear weapons.
739
00:38:16,840 --> 00:38:20,960
It's been Labor policy
for more than 50 years.
740
00:38:20,960 --> 00:38:25,400
I don't argue that this is easy.
I don't argue that it's simple.
741
00:38:25,400 --> 00:38:28,120
But I do argue that it's just.
742
00:38:28,120 --> 00:38:30,360
I commend the resolution.
743
00:38:32,520 --> 00:38:34,760
Anthony Albanese
stood outside Parliament
744
00:38:34,760 --> 00:38:37,960
and campaigned very fiercely
in opposition
745
00:38:37,960 --> 00:38:38,200
and campaigned very fiercely
for support of that treaty.
746
00:38:38,200 --> 00:38:39,440
for support of that treaty.
747
00:38:39,440 --> 00:38:39,680
Surely that's a broken
for support of that treaty.
748
00:38:39,680 --> 00:38:41,160
Surely that's a broken
election promise.
749
00:38:41,160 --> 00:38:41,400
Surely that's a broken
It's definitely not.
750
00:38:41,400 --> 00:38:42,640
It's definitely not.
751
00:38:43,600 --> 00:38:46,040
(CAMERA SHUTTERS CLICK)
752
00:38:46,040 --> 00:38:48,280
If Labor had signed the Ban Treaty,
753
00:38:48,280 --> 00:38:50,680
Australia would be the first nation
754
00:38:50,680 --> 00:38:53,520
under America's
so-called 'nuclear umbrella'
755
00:38:53,520 --> 00:38:55,960
to take that position.
756
00:38:55,960 --> 00:38:58,880
It would mean
nuclear-armed submarines or bombers
757
00:38:58,880 --> 00:38:59,120
It would mean
would not be welcome here.
758
00:38:59,120 --> 00:39:01,120
would not be welcome here.
759
00:39:04,160 --> 00:39:05,400
The main obstacle
760
00:39:05,400 --> 00:39:09,520
has really been concern
about the United States reaction
761
00:39:09,520 --> 00:39:11,760
and opposition
from the United States.
762
00:39:11,760 --> 00:39:13,240
Critics would say
763
00:39:13,240 --> 00:39:15,680
that in government
764
00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:17,240
the US has leant on you
765
00:39:17,240 --> 00:39:20,680
and said that that treaty,
the nuclear weapons Ban Treaty,
766
00:39:20,680 --> 00:39:20,920
and said that that treaty,
is inconsistent
767
00:39:20,920 --> 00:39:22,400
is inconsistent
768
00:39:22,400 --> 00:39:25,880
with Australia falling under
the US nuclear umbrella
769
00:39:25,880 --> 00:39:27,920
and indeed the ANZUS Treaty.
770
00:39:27,920 --> 00:39:29,920
Is that correct?
That's not correct.
771
00:39:29,920 --> 00:39:30,160
Is that correct?
I've not had a single conversation
772
00:39:30,160 --> 00:39:33,240
I've not had a single conversation
773
00:39:33,240 --> 00:39:33,480
with an American counterpart
I've not had a single conversation
774
00:39:33,480 --> 00:39:36,360
with an American counterpart
about any of this.
775
00:39:36,360 --> 00:39:39,880
Critics might say that you
taking that to National Conference
776
00:39:39,880 --> 00:39:40,120
Critics might say that you
and advocating for that treaty
777
00:39:40,120 --> 00:39:42,560
and advocating for that treaty
778
00:39:42,560 --> 00:39:45,520
was either naive or dishonest.
779
00:39:45,520 --> 00:39:47,000
Well, again, I don't accept that.
780
00:39:47,000 --> 00:39:49,760
And, I mean, you know,
this is an issue
781
00:39:49,760 --> 00:39:52,720
that had been worked through
at length
782
00:39:52,720 --> 00:39:56,440
and...and we arrived
at the position that we did.
783
00:39:56,440 --> 00:39:56,680
and...and we arrived
(INDISTINCT CHATTER)
784
00:39:56,680 --> 00:40:02,240
(INDISTINCT CHATTER)
785
00:40:02,240 --> 00:40:07,880
Do you think the age of disarmament
and nuclear-arms control is over?
786
00:40:09,120 --> 00:40:10,880
Yes, unfortunately,
787
00:40:10,880 --> 00:40:15,120
it really does seem
to be the end of an era.
788
00:40:15,120 --> 00:40:19,080
At a time of weakened
international co-operation,
789
00:40:19,080 --> 00:40:23,400
it significantly increases
the urgency
790
00:40:23,400 --> 00:40:26,720
of getting disarmament,
preventing nuclear war.
791
00:40:31,000 --> 00:40:36,400
Australia has a role to play
in this new age of nuclear expansion.
792
00:40:39,160 --> 00:40:41,680
At the Tindal air base
south of Darwin
793
00:40:41,680 --> 00:40:46,240
the US and Australia
have been busy upgrading facilities.
794
00:40:46,240 --> 00:40:48,080
The runway is being extended,
795
00:40:48,080 --> 00:40:50,280
fuel tanks enlarged
796
00:40:50,280 --> 00:40:52,160
and ammunition dumps constructed.
797
00:41:02,280 --> 00:41:05,400
As Four Corners revealed in 2022,
798
00:41:05,400 --> 00:41:05,640
the centrepiece
As Four Corners revealed in 2022,
799
00:41:05,640 --> 00:41:09,200
the centrepiece
will be a giant expanse of concrete
800
00:41:09,200 --> 00:41:09,440
the centrepiece
for six nuclear-capable B-52 bombers.
801
00:41:09,440 --> 00:41:13,400
for six nuclear-capable B-52 bombers.
802
00:41:18,080 --> 00:41:23,000
We're seeing a transformation
to actual operational basing
803
00:41:23,000 --> 00:41:23,240
We're seeing a transformation
where nuclear-weapons operation
804
00:41:23,240 --> 00:41:24,720
where nuclear-weapons operation
805
00:41:24,720 --> 00:41:27,960
could actually be launched
from Australia,
806
00:41:27,960 --> 00:41:31,160
particularly from B-52s
that might be based in Tindal.
807
00:41:31,160 --> 00:41:31,400
particularly from B-52s
How does China view
808
00:41:31,400 --> 00:41:33,240
How does China view
809
00:41:33,240 --> 00:41:38,880
the stationing of B-52 bombers,
American B-52 bombers, in Australia?
810
00:42:07,800 --> 00:42:09,400
We have a very good relationship...
811
00:42:09,400 --> 00:42:13,360
As the world inches closer
to a possible nuclear conflict,
812
00:42:13,360 --> 00:42:17,360
Donald Trump wants to cut a deal
with China and Russia.
813
00:42:17,360 --> 00:42:20,080
We have the most nuclear weapons.
Russia second.
814
00:42:20,080 --> 00:42:22,800
China is actually third
by a long way,
815
00:42:22,800 --> 00:42:26,080
but they'll be even
within four or five years.
816
00:42:26,080 --> 00:42:27,920
And we are talking about
de-escalation.
817
00:42:27,920 --> 00:42:28,160
And we are talking about
That's already being talked about.
818
00:42:28,160 --> 00:42:29,960
That's already being talked about.
819
00:42:29,960 --> 00:42:32,360
(GUNFIRE)
820
00:42:32,360 --> 00:42:33,280
(EXPLOSION)
821
00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:34,800
(GUNFIRE)
822
00:42:36,720 --> 00:42:38,280
JENNIFER PARKER:
I think we need to say
823
00:42:38,280 --> 00:42:40,720
that the chances of conflict in
this region are increasingly likely.
824
00:42:42,040 --> 00:42:45,520
We are likely to experience
significant loss of life
825
00:42:45,520 --> 00:42:46,600
if there was a conflict
826
00:42:46,600 --> 00:42:49,840
of not only ADF personnel
but civilian population.
827
00:42:49,840 --> 00:42:52,200
It means
that the Australian way of life
828
00:42:52,200 --> 00:42:54,720
and this fundamental safety
that we've all been born in
829
00:42:54,720 --> 00:42:54,960
and this fundamental safety
would absolutely change.
830
00:42:54,960 --> 00:42:56,480
would absolutely change.
831
00:43:01,800 --> 00:43:03,400
We're paid to be pessimists.
832
00:43:03,400 --> 00:43:05,680
We're paid to think about
the world's worst days
833
00:43:05,680 --> 00:43:07,560
and make sure
that we're prepared for those.
834
00:43:07,560 --> 00:43:11,760
And, so, it is natural that I worry
about what might be in our future.
835
00:43:11,760 --> 00:43:16,040
The single organising principle
of all Australian state craft -
836
00:43:16,040 --> 00:43:19,040
diplomacy, military, economic,
everything -
837
00:43:19,040 --> 00:43:19,280
diplomacy, military, economic,
for the next 30 years
838
00:43:19,280 --> 00:43:21,120
for the next 30 years
839
00:43:21,120 --> 00:43:21,360
needs to be preventing a war
for the next 30 years
840
00:43:21,360 --> 00:43:24,640
needs to be preventing a war
between the United States and China.
841
00:43:24,640 --> 00:43:29,200
It's an issue for the whole
of nation and the whole of society,
842
00:43:29,200 --> 00:43:31,440
so, we all
have to start caring about it.
843
00:43:31,440 --> 00:43:35,080
The fact is it's something that
we all need to be worried about.
844
00:43:38,440 --> 00:43:40,640
(THEME MUSIC PLAYS)
845
00:43:56,640 --> 00:43:58,640
Captions by Red Bee Media
846
00:43:58,640 --> 00:44:00,840
Copyright
Australian Broadcasting Corporation